Where the Mets stand with Juan Soto, and an evaluation of their arbitration-eligible players
The Mets have 8 players eligible for arbitration this winter. Which ones are non-tender candidates?
What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets signed RHP Dylan Covey to a major league contract on Thursday. Covey, 33, spent the 2024 season in the Phillies organization, appearing at three minor league levels while recovering from a right shoulder strain. In 18 appearances among three minor league affiliates, Covey went 0-2 with a 2.66 ERA (6 ER/20.1 IP) with nine walks and 19 strikeouts. He last appeared in the big leagues with Philadelphia in 2023, pitching to a 3.69 ERA in 28 appearances
Roster Moves 📰
Harrison Bader filed for free agency
Drew Smith filed for free agency
Brooks Raley filed for free agency
José Quintana filed for free agency
JD Martínez filed for free agency
Pete Alonso filed for free agency
Jesse Winker filed for free agency
José Iglesias filed for free agency
Ryne Stanek filed for free agency
Luis Severino filed for free agency
Adam Ottavino filed for free agency
The latest on Juan Soto and the Mets… ♨️
The Mets are among as many as 12 teams to show early interest free agent OF Juan Soto (Puma, New York Post)
Soto is eying a $700 million contract in free agency (Heyman, New York Post)
After the Yankees lost Game 5 of the World Series, Soto told reporters all 30 clubs will be in play for his free agency this winter (watch)
The eight players who are arbitration-eligible for the Mets… 💰
Over the last four days, I’ve been examining all of the Mets potential free agents heading into the off-season.
On Monday, I discussed Pete Alonso. On Tuesday, I evaluated Sean Manaea, JD Martínez, Jesse Winker and Luis Severino. On Wednesday, I discussed Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, Jose Quintana and Harrison Bader. On Thursday, I discussed Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, José Iglesias, and Phil Maton.
The last part of this series will take a look at all of the Mets arbitration-eligible players, their projected salaries and whether or not there are any non-tender candidates.
The non-tender deadline will be November 22. Not all of the money agreed upon with arbitration eligible players is guaranteed, although certain parts of the money owed becomes payable as spring training progresses if the player remains rostered with his team.
Paul Blackburn ($3.45 million in 2024, no options remaining)
Blackburn, 30, was acquired from the A’s at the 2024 trade deadline in July for minor league pitching prospect Kade Morris. He made just five starts for the Mets due to a back problem which resulted in a spinal fluid leak. He recently underwent surgery to address the issue, and his expected return to play is 4-5 months.
That injury and timetable to return clouds Blackburn’s future with the Mets. If he had stayed healthy, it would’ve been an easier decision to tender him a contract, which would likely call for a $4-5 million salary in 2025, a pretty good value for a fifth starter candidate. But now that he’s going to be rehabbing and recovering in the off-season and might not be available on Opening Day, tendering him a contract may not be the the best move for the club, especially if they decide to tender Tylor Megill a contract, which seems likely given his salary projection.
It seems more logical for the Mets to try and sign Blackburn back on a minor league deal with an incentivized major league contract option, but it’s unknown if either they or Blackburn would be interested in such a scenario.
Blackburn dealt with a number of injuries throughout 2024 which limited him to just 14 starts with the A’s and Mets. he compiled a 4.66 ERA over 75.1 IP this past season.
Tylor Megill ($766k in 2024, 1 option remaining)
Megill, 29, is due a raise in 2025 in his first year of arbitration eligibility, although his salary will probably remain modest in the $1-2 million range.
We all know the deal with Megill at this point. He throws eight different pitches with his two-seam fastball serving as his most recent standout pitch. It served him well over his final six starts of the regular season, helping him to a 2.32 ERA during that span.
There’s still an argument about whether or not Megill should be in the rotation or the bullpen, although his run at the end of the regular season as a member of the rotation was very promising after a couple of years in which he was really searching for his identity on the mound.
Given his salary projection, the Mets should be tendering Megill a contract, and certainly should over Blackburn if there’s a choice. But Megill is still a depth piece for this team and shouldn’t be guaranteed a spot in the major league rotation, even if he enters camp with a leg up on the spot in 2025.
David Peterson ($2.15 million in 2024, 1 option remaining)
Someone should’ve told Peterson his hip was messed up a while ago.
There’s nothing to even talk about with Peterson. He will be tendered a contract and earn between $4-5 million after a brilliant season in which he went 10-3 with a 2.90 ERA over 21 starts upon being activated from the injured list in May.
He is a key reason the Mets pitching became as good as it did, he is a key reason the Mets were in the playoffs too and a big reason the Mets were able to get as far as they did with strong performances out of the bullpen against the Brewers and the Phillies in the first two rounds. He was a godsend for this pitching staff and his transformation this season was incredible.
Peterson allowed two earned runs or less in 17 of his 21 starts in 2024. He threw six innings or more in 12 of his 21 starts as well. He is going to be a key cog in a Mets rotation that only includes Kodai Senga in it for the moment, and he himself is his own question mark after a completely lost season in 2024.
The only issue in 2024 for Peterson was his reduced strikeout rate of 7.5 per nine innings, compared to his career average of 9.2. But, he allowed fewer walks, fewer home runs all while logging a career-high with 121 innings.
The question with Peterson is sustainability. But, he had shown glimpses of what he was ultimately able to put together in 2024 in 2020 and 2022. So, perhaps this was a breakout season and he is finally living up to the expectations that followed him in the minor leagues.
Sean Reid-Foley ($773k in 2024, no options remaining)
Reid-Foley, 29, was brilliant when he pitched in 2024. He had a 1.66 ERA in 24 appearances for the Mets, his first season back after recovering from Tommy John Surgery in early 2023.
But he didn’t pitch very much in 2024.
He last appeared for the Mets on June 19 with varying degrees of right shoulder issues. He did resume a throwing program in September but because of the stops and starts during his rehab because of setbacks and mechanical issues, he just wasn’t able to get back to the big leagues in 2024.
The good news is, he was throwing in September, which should bode well for him in 2025 if he is indeed beyond his arm problems.
If he’s healthy, Reid-Foley can be an inexpensive power arm for the Mets bullpen, which will be revamped again this winter. He can probably be signed in the $800-$1 million range, which on the surface makes him an inexpensive, high upside arm for their bullpen, but his injury history could complicate the decision to bring him back.
DJ Stewart ($1.4 million in 2024, no options remaining)
Stewart, who will soon turn 31, found himself on the outside looking in after July 27 as an ineffective left-handed power bat off the bench. That resulted in the Mets shopping for a left-handed power bat and netting Jesse Winker at the trade deadline, which in turn led to Stewart being optioned to Triple-A and he did not return until rosters expanded in September.
Stewart hit .177/.325/.297 over 194 plate appearances for the Mets in 2024 after a very promising run at the end of the 2023 season.
Unfortunately for Stewart, he appears to be a prime non-tender candidate, as he stands to earn less than $2 million through arbitration in 2025 and doesn’t have a real place on this roster going forward.
Tyrone Taylor ($2 million in 2024, no options remaining)
Taylor, who will be 31 on Opening Day, played his role on the Mets perfectly this past season and found himself as the primary centerfielder as Harrison Bader’s bat faded in the second half.
Taylor had 10 defensive runs saved in right field for the Mets in 2024, more or less provided league-average offense overall an had a .785 OPS over his final 53 games.
The question with Taylor isn’t whether or not the Mets will tender him a contract. They will - he will earn between $2.5-3 million in 2025. It’s a matter of how they decide to deploy him in the outfield assuming Starling Marte is healthy. Taylor is superior defensively to Marte at this point in their respective careers, but the Mets shouldn’t risk over-exposing Taylor’s bat in an everyday role.
Taylor’s role (and Marte’s role for that matter) will also depend a lot on whether or not the Mets are able to land a starting outfielder, and we all know which free agent outfielder I am subtly referring to here.
Luis Torrens (split majors/minors contract in 2024, no options remaining)
The Mets acquired Torrens, 28, from the Yankees at the end of May when the club turned over a big part of the roster, which included the club designating Omar Narváez for assignment to make room for Torrens.
Torrens made an immediate impact on the Mets and was an instant upgrade over Narváez for his defense alone. Torrens had four defensive runs saved for the season, had a little bit of pop in his bat and fit right in culturally while embracing his role as Francisco Alvarez’s backup. His highlight play of the year came in London in early June when he started an incredible game-ending double play against the Phillies (Watch).
For Torrens, it’s his first year of arbitration eligibility. He’s probably in the $1 million ballpark for salary, making it an easy decision for the Mets to tender him a contract as the primary backup to Álvarez.
Alex Young ($1.16 million in 2024, no options remaining)
Young, 31, is a journeyman left-handed reliever who has spent parts of six seasons with the Diamondbacks, Reds, Guardians, Giants and now the Mets. He was traded from the Giants to the Reds in early July, then by mid-July the Giants had waived him before he could make an appearance, at which point the Mets picked him up.
He was solid in 14 appearances for the Mets this season, posting a 3.27 ERA over 14 innings, albeit with seven walks over 13.2 IP. He had a 2.87 ERA in 17 appearances overall for the Reds and Mets this past season.
But Young was optioned to the minors in early August and didn’t return until rosters expanded in September. He did not appear in the playoffs for the Mets - he wasn’t even rostered by the Mets for any of the three playoff rounds.
As such, there isn’t a clear path forward for Young and the Mets right now. He certainly should not be prioritized given the non-tender deadline is in mid-November, even if Young’s salary is unlikely to be north of $1.5 million in 2025 through arbitration and its not guaranteed money, either.
Young could be spring training invite option for the Mets if there’s mutual interest in a reunion and he is not tendered a contract, of course.
There is a lot of work for David Sterns and his staff to work through this off season. We all should have a lot of confidence in his ability to work with ownership and make good decisions!
'subtly'?😀