How do the Mets proceed with their pending free agents? (Part 1)

We start with Pete Alonso, the biggest decision among their pending free agents this winter

After the World Series, the Mets could have as many as 13 of their currently rostered players file for free agency.

Today, we will examine Pete Alonso’s future with the Mets and how a contract might shape up for him…

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AP Photo

Pete Alonso

This is the big one for the Mets and there are two legitimate sides to the argument.

Since he came up in 2019, there is one player who has more home runs in the majors than Alonso (226), and that is Aaron Judge (232).

But by his standards, Alonso had a down year in 2024, although he still managed to hit 34 home runs and drive in 88. His OPS was .788, a career-low and his struggles with runners in scoring position were exhaustingly chronicled and discussed as the year went on.

Still, Alonso has hit at least 34 home runs in all five of the 162-game seasons he has played and has had 94 RBI or more in four of the five as well. He had a strong postseason in 2024 and single-handedly got them into the Division Series against the Phillies, thanks to his heroic home run in Game 3 of the National League Wild Card Series. I’d say he made up for a season of struggles with a great three week run in the postseason.

Is Alonso what he was before? Who knows, but maybe this was just a “down” year and he will be back to being what he was through the 2023 season in 2025. We all know about the perceived absence of his bat at times during the regular season, especially with runners on-base. But when it mattered most, Alonso delivered in the playoffs.

Having said that, Alonso’s chase rate in 2024 was pretty much the same as it was in 2023. He did swing at fewer pitches inside the strike zone and saw more pitches in the zone this year than he did last year, but his overall contact rate was higher, so it’s not as if there’s anything in the metrics which would suggest Alonso is declining yet. He just didn’t hit well with runners in scoring position, which sagged his numbers a bit but also created a perception that he grossly underperformed his career when he only did by a small percentage in the end.

Alonso hit .232/.344/.417 with runners in scoring position in 2024, compared to his career mark of .256/.374/.536. That accounts for the gap in his production in all probability. It’s fair to expect Alonso to fall somewhere in the middle in the “clutch-ability” department next year, although that cannot be tangibly predicted or forecasted.

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He’s still a threatening middle-of-the-order bat and the most prolific home run hitter in the National League since he was called up in 2019. His game might not age well on the wrong side of 30, but there’s the emotional connection to Alonso who also has a chance to become the most prolific player the Mets have ever produced. The Mets have an opportunity for a potential future hall of famer to cross some major milestones with them and create some rich history with one of the most popular players in franchise history.

This is also a star player who has proven he can play in New York, can now win in New York, and says he loves New York and wants to stay too. Finding a player who can deal with this cauldron is half the battle, and the Mets have that as a known quantity.

Of course, there’s also the unemotional calculus with Alonso.

Should he leave, the Mets would be hard pressed to find replacement value and win potential on the open market or in trade at Alonso’s likely price point, given the market and history for first basemen.

They could conceivably try and do that with multiple players or at another position, maybe move Mark Vientos to first base and go with either Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or a free agent such as Alex Bregman at third (his best offensive years could be behind him too, but he is still a strong defender at third).

If they retain him, they will be fully prepared for the back end of the deal to possibly be hard on the eyes, as is the case with most long-term contracts issued to players on the older side of 30. There are risks - the Mets are fully aware of how a player like this might age, but the advent of the designated hitter in the National League would help in that regard.

Again, speaking unemotionally about Alonso, he has averaged about 2.9 fWAR per season since he came up in 2019, a surprisingly low number considering he has the most home runs in the National League during that span and 131 wRC+ as well. Can the Mets expect just as much fWAR from him over the same span going forward? Should they try to combine that value in multiple players? Should they bring him back and reinforce it with Juan Soto?

Are they willing to even sign both Alonso and Soto?

They should be willing to sign both. We are know they’re can sign both. Money is no object with this owner.

Anyway, this isn’t a situation where the Mets should be giving Alonso a blank check. But paying Alonso fair market value to return should be an easy decision for them, all things considered.

Also - if the Mets could retain Alonso and get another big bat like Soto or someone else via a trade, it makes Alonso more of a complimentary piece as the contract ages, making the Mets less reliant upon him over time.

In the end, when combining pragmatism with emotion, any club should want a star player who wants to be with their team. Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns referred to Alonso as a, “foundational piece” for the Mets during his end-of-season press conference last week, he recognizes his importance to the club’s history, and has a good relationship with him as well.

Sure, there are questions about long-term value, but that’s the risk with any free agent. If he were on the outside looking in and the Mets needed a first baseman, fans would want him in a Mets uniform, and so would the Mets.

But it’s Stearns’ job to remain as unemotional he can in this process and ensure he doesn’t sign Alonso to a grossly over-market contract, even if it means letting a homegrown player walk to another team that is willing to vastly overpay to get him.

(I could see a team like the Cubs doing that, btw)

Alonso turned down a seven-year, $158 million contract extension in 2023 from then GM Billy Eppler, according to the New York Post, which would’ve included his final year of arbitration in 2024. That offer had a total average annual value of $22.5 million. He has since changed agents from Apex Baseball to the Boras Corporation.

Now, one might be led to believe by hiring Scott Boras, either Alonso is seeking a contract in the $200 million range, he doesn’t want to stay in New York, or both based on such a rejection.

While all of that maybe true, I don’t see it that way necessarily.

First off, that negotiation took place over a year ago and with a different GM and the team/organization was in a much different place than it is today.

Second, Alonso has presented all the evidence in the world he wants to stay with the Mets. That doesn’t mean the player didn’t want to or shouldn’t bet on better seasons leading into free agency in an effort to get more, akin to what Aaron Judge did, a player who never wanted to leave the Yankees and probably wasn’t ever really close to doing so, despite the reports to the contrary. Judge simply decided to bet on himself.

And, the strategy worked out for Judge. It didn’t work out as well for Alonso.

Third, Alonso may simply want to see how other teams value him with Boras representing him. He has earned the right to test free agency and bet on himself. Brandon Nimmo did the same thing and ended up returning. Whether that was the result of a pure desire to return, he didn’t find a team out there who valued him the way he thought they should, or both, he still ended up coming back on a long-term contract.

If Alonso had been better all around in 2023 and 2024, he would likely be able to command a bigger deal than what he is probably going to get now. And while everyone wants to earn as much as they can regardless of their value in this world, we all know in most circumstances, we aren’t overpaid in our respective industries with respect to market competition the majority of the time.

The same can be said for Alonso as far as his value and market are concerned. In the end, he and Boras know about all of that given all of the metrics. But if they seek a ton more than what he is actually worth, it might be a very quiet and risky winter for Alonso, as has been the case with many of Boras’ clients who have sought a lot more than they’re actually worth.

(Again, I can see the Cubs as the one team willing to overpay for Alonso, but only to a certain extent.)

To offer some recent comparison to Alonso, Matt Olson signed an eight-year, $168 million contract ($21m AAV) with the Braves in 2022 in his age-28 season. Freddie Freeman signed a six-year, $162 million contract ($27m AAV) with the Dodgers in his age-32 season. Alonso has the fourth highest fWAR (17.3) among MLB first baseman since 2019, trailing only Freeman (30.7), Olson (21.5), and Paul Goldschmidt (21.2).

Alonso will likely receive the one-year, $21 million qualifying offer from the Mets, which he will most assuredly decline and head to free agency. He earned $20.5 million in his final year of arbitration in 2024.

So, if the Mets are going to retain Alonso, they’ll probably have to go up a bit from that $22.5 million AAV he reportedly rejected. That should be fine for them even if its more than Olson’s figure who has been a more valuable player based on fWAR. A fair contract for Alonso at this point should fall in between the dollars for Olson and Freeman in what should also be a 5-6 year commit, based on Freeman’s contract and his age when he signed it and Olson’s longer term deal signed at a younger age.

So, figure the ballpark for a fair contract is five years, $125-130 million or six years, $150-156 million ($25-26 million per year).

Personally, I don’t think it’s going to come down to a dollar issue for Alonso and the Mets. I think they’d be ultimately fine with the aforementioned average annual value numbers.

Rather, it will be about the years, and whether Alonso really wants to come back or not.

Let’s see how it shakes out over the next month or two.

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Tomorrow, we will examine JD Martínez, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jesse Winker, with the rest coming on Wednesday…