How do the Mets proceed with their pending free agents? (Part 3)
Today, we take a look at Jose Quintana, Harrison Bader, Brooks Raley, and Drew Smith
After the World Series, the Mets will have up to 13 of their currently rostered players file for free agency.
On Monday, I discussed Pete Alonso. Yesterday, I evaluated another four of their pending free agents. Here are some notes and thoughts on the path forward for four more…
José Quintana
Quintana, who will be 36 on Opening Day, said after the Mets lost Game 6 of the NLCS he wants to be on a team capable of winning a championship in 2025.
Quintana signed a two-year, $26 million contract with the Mets before the 2023 season, and missed the first half of the that season due to a benign lesion on his rib which required surgery. Aside from that blip, Quintana lived up to the expectation of his contract and was otherwise steady and reliable since coming back from that injury about midway through the 2023 season, pitching to his career mark of a 3.70 ERA over 44 total starts with the Mets in those two years.
Quintana makes his living getting batters to chase off-speed out of the zone. Per FanGraphs, only 44 percent of the pitches Quintana threw in 2024 were inside the strike zone, meaning 56 percent were outside the zone and yet he had a 3.70 ERA for the year and a 2.77 ERA over his final 18 starts after making an adjustment to his arm slot.
He was also brilliant in the Wild Card Series and Division Series employing that strategy, allowing just two earned runs in three starts against the Brewers and Phillies.
However, that strategy pitched right into the Dodgers strengths and their approach, which led to an ineffective start for Quintana in the NLCS.
Assuming the Mets bring back one of Luis Severino or Sean Manaea as a mid-rotation starter, they would have one of those, Kodai Senga, and David Peterson returning to the rotation with Tylor Megill still somewhere in between. Only Senga can be considered a true swing-and-miss arm among this group, and it’s only fair to tag a question mark on Senga at this juncture after a lost season in 2024.
If the Mets were to bring back Quintana, they’d get the reliability and steadiness they’ve come to enjoy over the last year and a half with him. But the Mets probably need to assume some more financial risk in an effort to buy a top of the rotation, swing-and-miss arm as an upgrade to Quintana in this scenario.
If the Mets don’t sign Severino or Manaea, it might make a reunion with Quintana more likely and certainly more desirable. But he shouldn’t be a part of the initial plan for the Mets out of the gate during the off-season, only because they have that big need at the top of their rotation.
Quintana isn’t a $21 million qualifying offer candidate.
Harrison Bader
Bader, who will turn 31 in June, signed a one-year, $10.5 million contract before the 2024 season with the Mets. He’s a local kid who was born in Bronxville and went to high school at Horace Mann in Riverdale. He played college ball with Pete Alonso at the University of Florida.
It’s fair to say his contribution provided acceptable value with respect to his salary in 2024.
Early on, Bader was getting the bulk of the starts in center field for the Mets, and he was coming up with some big, clutch hits to help win ballgames for the club. But as the season went on and especially in the end, Bader became a part-time player and found himself primarily as a late-game, defensive replacement during the playoffs.
Bader was a big part of the club’s cultural shift in 2024, and therefore a big part of the club’s transformation from an afterthought early to a near pennant winner in late October. Clearly, presence was an important part of the Mets 2024 roster and it had a lot of value inside the clubhouse, even if it didn’t necessarily translate to end-to-end production for Bader.
His skills defensively are indisputable. But with Tyrone Taylor under team control and the Mets presumably living in the top of the free agent market to fill this need at the top of the depth chart, it makes little sense to have both Bader and Taylor on the roster in 2025. And, if the Mets decide to retain Jesse Winker or sign a like-for-like player there (lefty power bat), then there really is no runway to retain Bader.
Brooks Raley/Drew Smith
Both Smth and Raley underwent Tommy John and/or Internal Brace Surgery resulting from UCL injuries in their throwing elbows. Raley’s surgery was in late May/early June, while Smith didn’t have his surgery until July 12.
Needless to say, its a crap deal whenever this happens to a player, but especially in their walk years.
There is a chance Raley could pitch in mid-to-late 2025 if everything goes well in his recovery, although it seems less likely Smith will be available in 2025, although there is a remote chance.
Raley is completing a two-year, $10 million deal he signed with the Rays before the 2022 season with the Mets having exercised their club option on him for the 2024 season at $6.5 million. He is entering unrestricted free agency this winter and has compiled a 2.48 ERA in 74 relief appearances for the Mets since joining the club.
The Mets acquired Smith, 31, before the trade deadline in 2017 from the Rays for Lucas Duda. He along with Brandon Nimmo are the longest tenured Mets on the roster, although Smith has struggled to stay healthy over the course of his career. Smith - who earned $2.2 million in his final year of arbitration in 2024 - has a lifetime 3.48 ERA in 191 relief appearances with 202 strikeouts and 77 walks in 196.1 IP over parts of six big league seasons. He made his debut with the Mets in 2018 and upon being diagnosed with his UCL injury, was very emotional about the possibility of leaving via free agency with the media.
Both Raley and Smith were present with the club during their playoff run in 2024.
The Mets could sign both to minor league deals and allow them to continue their rehab processes with them in Port St. Lucie through the course of the season. There’s a no cost/no risk outcome to doing that. And, if they’re able to help later next year, it’s a bonus and the Mets can figure out how to inject them into their season.
But at this point, neither are factors for any team until their rehabs are complete, and they still have a long way to go.
Part 4 will come tomorrow with a discussion about José Iglesias, Phil Maton, Adam Ottavino and Ryne Stanek…