Realistically, who is the perfect ace for the Mets?
The Mets need to make a move for a true No. 1 starter, and Tarik Skubal might just be a pipe dream
What’s up with the Mets? 🍎
Scott Boras, speaking at the GM Meetings in Vegas, called 1B Pete Alonso an “ideal franchise player” ahead of free agency
President of baseball operations David Stearns spoke again, touching on a number of different topics:
He admitted that 2B Jeff McNeil would see “probably less” time in center field in 2026
They will be looking to add some multi-innings arms to the bullpen in 2026
On the subject of the bullpen, he revealed that RHP Dylan Ross will get the chance to make the 2026 roster. Stearns expects the flame-throwing righty to “contribute throughout next season”
INF Luisangel Acuña a “unique player” because of his high floor and the many ways he can contribute, adding that “the offensive contribution doesn’t need to be elite” in order for Acuña to establish himself as an everyday player in the major leagues
The Mets love both RHP Edwin Díaz and 1B Pete Alonso, calling the duo “great representatives of the organization”
Roster Moves 📰
LHP Nate Lavender, who was selected in the 2024 Rule 5 Draft, will return to the Mets organization and Triple-A Syracuse after being outrighted by the Rays
Rumor Mill 🔎
The Mets are believed to be one of several teams interested in free agent outfielder Cody Bellinger (New York Post)
The Mets have opened talks with 1B Pete Alonso, and discussions have reportedly started on a positive note (New York Post)
RHP Tatsuya Imai, who has been linked to the Mets, will be officially posted on Nov. 19 (Sportsnet)
What ace isn’t a pipe dream for the Mets? ✍️
I hate to be Captain Obvious here, but the New York Mets need an ace. I mean, everyone on the planet knows that. If the Mets want to bounce back and return to contending status in 2026, they will need to find an ace either internally or externally.
However, that’s easier said than done.
Like a Vezina Trophy-caliber netminder in hockey, or a future Hall of Fame-worthy QB in football, high-end aces don’t exactly grow on trees. And, if you don’t have one in the farm system, going out to acquire one can be a formidable prospect.
True No. 1 starters don’t often become available and, when they do, they command a hell of a lot of prospect capital in return. For instance, the asking price for Tarik Skubal would be astronomical. And, in any case, as our own Michael Baron has already written about, it is highly unlikely that Skubal gets traded this winter and, if he does, it is even more unlikely that the Mets would be willing to give up what it would be required to obtain the newly minted AL Cy Young winner.
So, who would be the next best ace available for the Mets?
Allow me to make the case for Sandy Alcantara.
Now, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Marlins owner Bruce Sherman has told several employees that he fully expects Alcantara to be on the roster on Opening Day. However, Nightengale also noted that Miami isn’t shutting off talks with potential suitors. So, reading between the lines, Alcantara will be available for the right price.
And remember, these are the Marlins, and they almost always end up trading everyone.
Before we get on to what the Mets might have to give up in any potential deal, let’s first look at the upside of trading for Alcantara. The righty returned from Tommy John Surgery in 2025 and got off to a disastrous start, pitching to an ugly 7.22 ERA in the first half of the year. However, Alcantara rebounded after the All-Star break and looked more like the ace who won the 2022 National League Cy Young award. From July 18 through the end of the season, he posted a 3.33 ERA with 71 strikeouts across 83.2 innings in 13 starts. In seven of those 13 innings, Alcantara pitched seven full innings while opposing batters hit just .217 against him during that span.
While Skubal would ultimately be a home run move for the Mets, Alcantara does tick a lot of boxes for this team. He is the master of eating innings, averaging 211 innings over a 162-game season for his career. He has the ability to regularly go deep into games, a quality the Mets so clearly lacked in 2025. Furthermore, Alcantara offers the kind of ground ball-ability that the Mets were also missing last year. For instance, Alcantara’s ground ball rate of 48.1 percent in 2025 wasn’t far off from his mark in 2022.
Additionally, his walk rate stood at an impressive six percent in the second half of last season, while his strikeout rate stood at 21.3 percent. When you couple those numbers with the fact that Alcantara’s average fastball velocity clocked in at 97.8 mph during the second half of the 2025 season, that tells you that the two-time All-Star looks back to normal in the wake of coming back from Tommy John Surgery.
Another huge plus factor in trading for Alcantara is the fact that he is under team control for two more years. He is owed $17 million in 2026, and there is a club option for 2027 at $21 million. You would effectively be getting an ace for two years at $38 million, which isn’t a bad deal at all. That’s even more important when you consider the plethora of other needs the Mets need to address this offseason. And, for comparison’s sake, Skubal will become a free agent at the end of the 2026 season and, with Scott Boras as his agent, would command a monster deal.
Now for the downside.
Since dominating the NL and winning the Cy Young in 2022, Alcantara has regressed somewhat with a couple of down years. He posted a 4.14 ERA across 28 starts in 2023 before getting hurt, and he did not look great upon returning from Tommy John Surgery in the first half of 2025. Again, Alcantara’s second-half resurgence should offer some hope that the first half was just a part of his recovery process. It is also worth noting that Alcantara has never been elite when it comes to generating swings and misses. He sat in the 57th percentile in 2025 with a chase percentage of 29 percent, although he was in the 97th percentile and 94th percentile in 2023 and 2022, respectively.
However, arguably the most important factor at play here is cost and whether or not president of baseball operations David Stearns will really have the appetite to pull the trigger on such a move. As it pertains to the asking price, the Marlins would want a lot, but not nearly as much as the Tigers would command for Skubal. Still, I’d imagine Carson Benge, Jett Williams, and one of Jonah Tong or Brandon Sproat would have to be on the table in any potential package for Alcantara at the very least.
Is that a deal Stearns would be interested in making? After all, we all know Stearns’ philosophy is to develop aces. And he’s right in the sense that you can’t just go out and acquire an ace in free agency or via trade. They need to obtain an ace, maximize his strengths, protect his weaknesses, and put him in the best possible spot to succeed, all while ensuring there’s a never-ending pipeline of future aces ready to go. That’s the strategy they have to adopt if you want to cultivate a winning culture while building a sustainable winner. They have to walk and chew gum at the same time, which is exactly what the Dodgers do, and we know that’s exactly the kind of model the Mets want to adopt and make their own. There’s an argument that giving up a young pitcher like Sproat or Tong in a deal for a 30-year-old ace like Alcantara would run counter to Stearns’ long-term vision.
But, on the flip side, we all know owner Steve Cohen wants to win now, and the Mets can’t afford to enter 2026 without a legitimate and true ace at the front of the rotation. And I think it would be unfair to expect Nolan McLean, as great as he was at the end of 2025, to come in and carry all the burden and all the workload in what will be his first full season in the big leagues in 2026.
Now, we do have a sense that Stearns is genuinely interested in finding a No. 1 starter, and that he would be willing to engage the trade market to accomplish that goal, by the quote below:
“You’d always love to find a No. 1-type starter. I don’t know how many true No. 1 starters are out there right now -- I don’t know how many are actually going to be traded, I don’t know how many are truly available in free agency. If one of those guys happens to be available, we’ll be right there with them.
“I think if a frontline pitcher, top-of-the-rotation pitcher is available, we’re going to be involved in those discussions. We do have the depth and quality of farm system at this point that we can both have those players impact our Major League team in a real way and, potentially, trade some of them to get some really near-term help, if that’s available.”
The only unanswered question right now is if Stearns will actually be comfortable enough to follow through on those comments and do something that is uncomfortable for the franchise. It is one thing saying stuff like that at the start of what will be a defining offseason, but it is a different thing entirely to actually go out and make the move.
This is all uncharted territory for Stearns.
Going all out for an ace like Alcantara, or Skubal for argument’s sake, flies in the face of everything he believes in at his very core. Trading for a No. 1 starter would be the most alien of David Stearns’ moves. So, with that said, we’re going to have to actually see it in order to believe it.
All in all, there is no getting away from the fact that if the Mets want to be World Series contenders in 2026 - and their window to win is right now - then they need to trade for an elite ace. And, with all the options out there, I do believe Alcantara would be the best fit for this team and what they need from a true front-of-the-rotation starter.
It might be time for Stearns to exit his comfort zone a little bit and do what’s needed to make the Mets a real force.
Around the League 🚩
Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal became the first repeat AL Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000
Pirates RHP Paul Skenes was unanimously voted the NL Cy Young winner, receiving all 30 first-place votes
Former Dodgers RHP Tony Gonsolin went unclaimed on waivers and has now elected free agency
The Rays announced on Wednesday that they will return home to Tropicana Field in 2026 after playing the 2025 season Steinbrenner Field in Tampa (ESPN)