Let's talk about this winter's dream scenario for the Mets
Plus, some early buzz on where the Mets might be going with both Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil this winter
What’s up with the Mets? 🍎
There were several notable Mets minor leaguers who elected free agency on Friday: RHP Matt Allan, RHP Bryce Montes de Oca, IN Joey Meneses, and INF Luke Ritter (official transactions)
President Trump pardoned Darryl Strawberry for his past tax evasion and drug charges (Athletic)
Roster moves 💨
Activated the following players from the 60 day injured list: RHP Frankie Montas, RHP Dedniel Núñez, RHP Tylor Megill, RHP Max Kranick, LHP AJ Minter, RHP Christian Scott, LHP Danny Young
Rumor Mill 💨
The Mets might only want Pete Alonso back on another team-friendly deal, and could look to shop Jeff McNeil this winter (SI)
NPB star infielder Munetaka Murakami has been posted - he has a 45-day window to sign with an MLB club which began on Saturday (ESPN)
Reds manager Terry Francona does not expect RHP Hunter Greene to be traded (Chatterbox Sports)
If you don’t play the lottery, you can’t win the jackpot! ✍🏻
November is usually the time of year most fans fantasize about the players the Mets should get, think they’ll get, and probably won’t get. That’s the fun part about being a fan - people can talk about anyone they want, and there really are no consequences for debating it all out!
I, for one, do the same thing. I think about players who may or may not fit, weigh the pros and cons, and often wonder aloud whether or not any given iteration of a front office would even entertain the trade I am thinking of, surrender the draft pick for the player I believe they should sign, or whether or not the Mets could make an unnatural fit work for the benefit of the whole team.
This front office is a little hard to read, of course. David Stearns has a longer track record in Milwaukee than he does in New York, but the themes, brands, and practices aren’t dissimilar between what he has done with the Brewers and what he has done with the Mets. Sure, the Mets signed Juan Soto and Pete Alonso to large and uncomfortable contracts, and neither fit one of the primary criteria Stearns often looks for given their defensive profiles, but it also wouldn’t be fair to talk about either of those players being Mets without the strong influence of club owner Steve Cohen, who was smack dab in the middle of both of those negotiations.
What we do know is what Stearns has said in public. That being, he wants to grow a pitching staff in particular from within and views that path as the best one forward towards the club becoming championship caliber and a perennial one at that. I don’t disagree with that mantra. There are almost no clubs who win the World Series with store-bought starting pitching. It’s too expensive, too risky, the players almost always underperform their contracts, and teams just get stuck with all of that for far too long on their roster and books while watching other teams win championships on TV.
Having said that, there are exceptions to the rule, and all teams both fill their needs in the rotation via free agency while cultivating their own starting pitching. Teams have to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time here, especially teams like the Mets who have clearly shown an ability to not only revamp their pitching pipeline but also fill major gaps in the external markets in a major way.
Now, like I said, this is hard to do strictly via free agency. Most pitchers enter free agency on the wrong side of 30, and I don’t think there’s a single GM (maybe aside from Brian Cashman) who generally likes to sign aging starting pitchers to long-term contracts. I do think it’s fine to assume some risk on a 30+ pitcher in a short or medium-term deal, and it seems Stearns is willing to do that in certain situations too. That’s not to say it has worked for him so far entirely, but risk is a part of the game and to be fair, he could’ve easily scored with his decisions last winter as easily as he struck out (with pretty much all of them). And, from a business perspective, none of the deals were that terrible (maybe except the Frankie Montas deal which everyone believed was doomed from the start, except Stearns) - they just didn’t work out on the field, which make them only bad baseball evaluations. They could’ve easily signed other arms which might’ve panned out, say Nathan Eovaldi over Sean Manaea for a similar contract, for instance.
So, what are we talking about here as far as free agents are concerned?
Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Michael King, and Ranger Suárez all headline the top of the free agent market. All of them are 30+, most of them will likely be in the market for long-term contracts (maybe except for King and Gallen), some of them are diminished or diminishing already, most if not all of them are flawed and come with draft pick compensation, and therefore, all of them bring with them a substantial amount of high-cost risk.
Quite frankly, among this crew, the only pitchers the Mets should consider signing are Gallen and King, and King would be my primary target. I think he’s a good buy-low situation for any team; he knows New York, he is uber-talented, and he could easily be front-line if he stays healthy.
So, let’s say the Mets sign King. Yeah, that’s good, but not close to good enough to solve their starting pitching issues, which were littered with walks, injuries, a lack of innings, and general underperformance after June 12.
You’re probably thinking what I am thinking at this point, and that is the best path to improving their starting pitching in the ways they need to is in the trade market. I’m guessing, based on the talk in social media and among media talking heads, you were already thinking that.
And, you’re probably thinking about one person in particular, although I think there are a myriad of possibilities for the Mets to consider in the trade market.
So, I will spend the rest of this morning fantasizing about the Mets acquiring Tarik Skubal with you. After all, it’s November, the month everyone gets to dream about their team getting that guy.
But perhaps this isn’t as big of a dream scenario as you might think.
There has been no pitcher who has been more valuable in terms of fWAR than Skubal since the start of the 2023 season. During that span, he has been worth 15.9 fWAR, a smidge better than Zack Wheeler (15.3) and a full win better than Logan Webb (14.9). His 2.39 ERA is the second-best, his 38 wins are the seventh-best, his 571 strikeouts are the eighth-best, 10.99 strikeouts-per-nine-innings is ninth-best, his 1.58 walks-per-nine are the fifth-best, and the 0.71 home runs allowed per nine are the sixth-best. He is in the top ten percentiles in fastball velocity, opposing exit velocity, chase rate, swing-and-miss rate, strikeout and walk rates, and hard-hit rates.
He’s the best starting pitcher in the game right now, and of course the best who might be available this winter in either marketplaces.
All signs are pointing to the Tigers dealing Skubal. They’re reportedly not seeing eye to eye by a wide margin on what a contract extension might look like, which is generally absurd to me considering the comps in free agency with respect to his age and performance. I’ll never understand why clubs show no intent to sign and keep their homegrown stars. Every single owner in this sport can afford to sign every single player, no matter what they say. They’re all billionaires, and they’re all seeing record revenues every single year. This is a choice, and only a choice for these owners.
Anyway, the rub with Skubal is that he’s a rental, and it’s very hard to see him not test free agency after 2026, his age-29 season as a Scott Boras client. And the cost in trade - assuming Detroit makes him available - will be astronomical in prospect currency. There’s a theory out there that because Skubal is a rental, that will lower the cost in trade, but between his present-day value and the unquestionable demand that will come from big market teams (think the Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Phillies, perhaps the Mariners and Giants), the price will undoubtedly be inflated and get uncomfortable.
That’s not to say the Mets shouldn’t go for Skubal and don’t have the prospect currency to get him. They definitely should and definitely do. And, they can always acquire him and try to sign him to a long-term deal too, which wouldn’t be so crazy given he’s turning 29 in November and they’d be paying for most of his prime during a six, seven, or even an eight-year deal. I think they’d have to make an aggressive push to sign him this winter if they got him, even if the price tag moves into the nine or ten-year range at $38-40 million per. After all, these are the Mets and the Steve Cohen Mets and these are the kinds of moves they have to be able to make at any given point. They did it with Soto last winter for a generational bat, and they have to be in a position to risk-take for what has arguably become the best left-handed pitcher since Clayton Kershaw, who was generational himself.
The question, of course, is, would David Stearns entertain a long-term deal for a pitcher? Would he be willing to sacrifice multiple top ten organizational prospects to get Skubal? If he does the latter, he has to be willing to do the former from my seat. But again, he essentially said a few weeks ago that it’s not an ideal circumstance, and his history as a front office executive would suggest this isn’t a realistic path, either.
But this is not even the most typical scenario of a star pitcher becoming available, assuming he does to begin with. Skubal, like Soto last winter, is an exception to the traditional baseball trade or free agent.
So in other words, Stearns would have to prove he is willing to dramatically exit his comfort zone, deal from the top of the farm system, and then make sure this player doesn’t get away. In other words, take two massive risks like this on what is unquestionably the best pitcher in the American League right now.
And there’s no other way to prove it than to pull off such a deal. Yeah, I have to see it to believe it with Stearns. Sorry!
Still, there’s probably no team better positioned to make the move for Skubal right now than the Mets. Their farm system has been termed elite, they have some elite arms (who you may not be happy to part with that might have to go in this deal), and the money to keep Skubal for the rest of his career. The Mets now have a lot of what other teams covet in their farm system, that being premium-grade starting pitching.
All of that would be risky. But you can’t win the lottery if you don’t play, right?
Also - it’s time for that next big trade for the Mets that can make them next level. And it’s time for Stearns to play that lottery game.