Thoughts on the Mets broken rotation and their runway to correct it
Plus, the Mets will look to pick up the pieces at home with a three-game set against the Braves starting tonight
What’s up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets were off on Monday - they’re at home on Tuesday to start a three-game series with the Braves at Citi Field
Mets owner Steve Cohen still believes the Mets will turn their season around (NY Post)
The Just Mets Podcast 🎙️
Listen to this week’s JM Podcast as Mets Therapy’s Andrew Claudio commiserates with Rich about the Mets coming apart at the seams over the last two weeks:
Playoff Race 🏁
The Phillies remained hot as they beat the Reds on Monday night to increase their lead in the NL East to 6 games. With the Reds losing to the Phillies, the Mets increased their lead to two games over Cincinnati for the third wild card:
Per FanGraphs, the Mets now have an 78.4% chance of making the playoffs in 2025:
Down on the Farm 🌾
All Mets minor league affiliates were off on Monday.
Today’s Game 🗓️
Match-up: Mets (63-55) vs Braves (51-67)
Where: Citi Field - Flushing, NY
Starters: RHP Clay Holmes (9-6, 3.46 ERA) vs. RHP Spencer Strider (5-9, 4.04 ERA)
When: 7:10 PM EDT
Where to Watch: SNY
The present and the future of the Mets starting rotation… ✍️
There are 44 games left in this season. The Mets have somehow lost 31 of their last 48 games, have somehow made the Phillies a non-conversation for themselves in the National League East over the last 10 days, and are now basically fighting against themselves to fend off the Reds (and a bunch of other middling teams) for a ticket to the October dance.
That seems impossible, doesn’t it? A team that 48 games ago was 45-24 with their pitching rolling and humming and their offense, which hadn’t been great into the middle of June, was scoring just enough runs on most nights to mostly outpace the rest of the National League outside of the Phillies, Dodgers, and Brewers.
But like it did in 2021, those flaws with the offense and their unsustainable starting pitching all seemed to crash into a wall at once. It has not been the same since.
It’s not hard to figure out why, at least from a starting pitching perspective.
Their rotation was built around way too many hopes, ifs, or maybes. We knew the rotation was a major question mark coming into the season and that question mark only became bigger when they lost Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas during spring training due to injuries.
There were others with issues too, like Griffin Canning who had lost his way, Clay Holmes who they were attempting to convert from a reliever into a starter in a matter of months, Montas’ own checkered history of both injury and underperformance, Kodai Senga’s high-maintenance plan and his five regular-season innings between 2023 and Opening Day in 2025, and another roll of the hope dice with both Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn in that they would both somehow emerge from their vaunted pitching lab in Port St. Lucie as additional success stories in their ability to turn also-ran pitchers or pitchers with undervalued talents into renaissance stories.
After all, it worked with Manaea and Luis Severino last year, right? So it’s gotta work for everyone. And because arms like Seth Lugo— who the Mets simply refused to convert back into a full-time starter after actually being a starter at times during his career— became success stories as relievers-turned-starters, the Mets thought they’d have instant success with Holmes, who hadn’t started a game in seven years.
The Mets hoped, or perhaps even expected, all of this would simply work out.
Nope. Instead, it has taken the Mets 42 different pitchers to get them through the season’s first 118 games. Yes, one of them is Luis Torrens, so fine, 41.
It was a high-risk strategy which generally hasn’t worked out, considering the starting rotation has averaged 4.97 IP per start this season and nearly a half inning less than that in their last 48 games. It’s because of that, or at least in large measure, why the Mets have had a revolving door of pitchers in their bullpen, why even their best relievers have underperformed, and why the Mets have seemingly been unable to use their newly revamped bullpen since the trade deadline the way it was intended, because literally everyone has to pitch out of their shoes and into unintended roles.
So, the question is, how can the Mets fix their starting rotation for next season?
The obvious answer is, get better starting pitchers. That’s not so easy, considering they have Manaea, Montas, Holmes, Senga, and David Peterson locked into the roster for next season, and Montas doesn’t opt out (he can, but that would be ill-advised for him).
But the Mets can move Holmes back into his customary role in the bullpen, which he may or may not be receptive to even if he is moved into that role when/if the Mets get to the playoffs. So that opens up one spot. They can also do something about Montas and open up another rotation spot.
However, aside from Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Framber Valdez, there aren’t a lot of inspiring options likely hitting the free agent market, and these three will require lengthy commitments, something David Stearns has shown no inclination towards doing with 30-plus starting pitchers, nor should he do with 30-plus starting pitchers (see Corbin Burnes, among many, many others, as the reason for that).
The Mets do have two young starting pitching prospects at Triple-A in Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat, and they have another one who just arrived at Triple-A in Jonah Tong. So, keep an eye on them the rest of this year and into spring training next year, especially since Stearns has indeed shown an inclination towards affording their young prospects chances (see the endless opportunities they’ve given Brett Baty at third, among others). However, to ask them to come here now and stabilize a rotation in the middle of a pennant race in which they’re bleeding out, on top of the fact that both McLean and Sproat are nearing their innings cap for the year is an unrealistic and unfair ask of them at this juncture of the season.
The fix has to come from within the people who are here, even if they give one or both of McLean and Sproat a cup of coffee this year.
No matter how you slice it, the Mets have a mess on their hands with this rotation now and potentially into next season even if the Mets afford an opportunity to at least one of their young pitching prospects.
For now, let’s see how or even if the Mets can salvage these final 44 games and get to the dance. This is where David Stearns and Co. along with Carlos Mendoza and his staff can shine, in their ability to turn very little into something competent. They have done it before - they did it last year, they did it over the first 2 1/2 months of this season, so they can do it again in a short run of games now.
This is their time and opportunity to put their money where their mouths are, and an opportunity for them to show us they don’t just sound smart, but actually are smart.
No, getting to the playoffs won’t mean these flaws will have vanished. It just punts the conversation 2-3 months down the road which, as far as I am concerned anyway, would rather have than right now.
(The offense stinks too, but that’s a whole other conversation we can have).
Around the League 🚩
The Padres beat the Giants 4-1 to pull within one game of the Dodgers in the NL West
The Angels beat the Dodgers 7-4 in Anaheim thanks in part to six shutout innings from José Soriano and a two-homer night from Zach Neto
José Quintana allowed a run over six innings as the Brewers kept rolling to their tenth win in a row with a 7-1 win over the Pirates
Quintana is 10-4 for the Brewers and wanted to come back. Just sayin’. This team is cooked.
With all the Mets' problems, the oddsmakers STILL have them in the playoffs by a good margin.
The Mets are going to have to work out being eliminated, especially if one of the wannabees doesn't suddenly have a fantastic stretch run. For instance, if the Mets win the Reds series (2-1), and the Reds are far from unbeatable, the Reds would have a three-game deficit if things even out.
The Mets have it in them to blow it, but that's the mentality fans and players need to have.
As to the pitcher situation. Soto was a message signing as much as anything. How much of that contract will cover years when he won't play at that elite level? He is not going to be playing at it when he's in his late 30s, I suppose. He will be injured and slump at times. But it was felt that it was worth signing the guy. He gives the team a special talent for years.
At some point, the Mets are going to have to "waste" some money on starting pitching (other than Montas). The discount rack can have great deals, but sometimes you have to purchase at least one overpriced suit. I think they needed to find someone, overpriced or not, at the trading deadline.
They probably still need one in the offseason. It's a risk, but we have a ridiculously rich owner, and just how much of a risk would at least one pitcher be?