The wide net the Mets are casting for their rotation
Plus, an evaluation of the trade market, an update on Pete Alonso and more ahead of the Winter Meetings
What’s up with the Mets? 🍎
Agents and executives believe Pete Alonso would be lucky to get four years in a new contract (NY Post)
Reid Brignac is leaving his post as the manager for Double-A Binghamton for a coaching job at Triple-A Durham for the Rays (official)
Rumor Mill 🔎
Alonso has Boston high on his list of landing spots (Boston Globe)
The Phillies are showing interest in OF Cody Bellinger (ESPN)
Eury Pérez is the only untouchable Marlin starter (Athletic)
The Cubs have identified RHP Zac Gallen as a target for their rotation (Athletic)
The Just Mets Podcast 🎙️
On this week’s pod, host Rich MacLeod is joined by Roger Cormier – creator of The Mets Newsletter – to discuss the biggest surprises (so far) of this Mets offseason, whether or not fans should trust David Stearns, and talk through the latest rumors ahead of the Winter Meetings.
You can enjoy a free preview of this week’s episode on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify and you can get full access by upgrading to a paid subscription.
SUBSCRIBE: YouTube | Apple Podcasts | Spotify
The Winter Meetings will begin on Monday at the Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort in Orlando, Florida.
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza is scheduled to speak with the media at 5:40 p.m. ET on Monday, December 8.
The MLB Draft Lottery will be held on Tuesday, December 9 at 5:30 p.m. ET and will be aired live on MLB Network. The Mets have a 0.67% chance of winning the first pick in the draft.
The Rule 5 draft will be held on Wednesday, December 10 at 2 p.m. ET. The Mets currently have 39 players on their 40-man roster, meaning there is next to no wiggle room for them to take a chance on a player. If the Mets do choose a player from the major league portion of the draft, they must pay the player’s former club $100,000 and carry that player on the active roster the entire season. If they don’t, they must then be waived. If the player clears waivers, they offer that player back to their former club for $50,000. The player can only be outrighted off the 40-man roster and sent to the minors if their former team declines to take the player back.
For more on this year’s Winter Meetings, check out MLB’s primer here.
The Mets are interested in A LOT of pitchers! ✍🏻
Well, the Winter Meetings are about to start, and we are up to our ears in rumors, buzz, dot connecting, speculation, and roster permutations.
Yesterday, Andrew discussed the pros and cons and likely outcomes of Kyle Schwarber possibly signing with the Mets, which is, as you could see, its own animal. Linda dove into the deep end of the pool on the possibility of the Mets acquiring RHP Joe Ryan, although it remains to be seen how motivated the Twins are to move him, especially since they appear to be holding firm on not trading away more assets.
But this weekend and ahead of the annual MLB card-playing event in Orlando, we have some more meat on the bone.
On Friday, MLB.com reported the Mets are among the favorites (along with Baltimore) to sign LHP Framber Valdez. They’re also interested in RHPs Michael King and Tatsuya Imai; they’re involved in LHP Ranger Suárez’s free agency, but not in the mix for RHP Zac Gallen.
So, that’s a lot.
First off, they’re not signing all of them. My guess is they’d sign one of them, maybe two if the years are reasonable on King or Suárez. I don’t know if the Mets would sign one and Imai given the amount of years Imai is reportedly commanding. But I could see the Mets signing Imai and then trading for the other starter they need.
To me, signing two free agent starting pitchers would at least allow the Mets to preserve their prospect capital and not deal from the Brandon Sproat, Jonah Tong, and Jett Williams crop right now. That’s not to say that signing two doesn’t create a clog in the pipeline—it would, but there would unquestionably be opportunities for Sproat and Tong specifically to jump the lower-tiered veterans in the rotation at some point, perhaps in 2026 if they continue to underperform.
Having said that, all of this has me thinking more and more about Kodai Senga’s situation, which is a whole other animal here.
The Mets have appeared eager to move Senga this winter. He will earn $14 million in 2026, $14 million in 2027, and there’s a $15 million conditional club option on his contract for 2028 but only if he requires Tommy John surgery or a right elbow injury, which has him on the injured list for at least 131 days. So, there are basically two years left on his original five-year, $75 million deal.
He has reportedly expressed to the Mets a desire to stay in recent weeks. The Mets don’t obviously have to honor that request, but it should matter to them that they have a player at a reasonable cost who expressed dedication to them.
At the beginning of the off-season, I was all but sure we had seen the last of Senga in a Met uniform. He hasn’t pitched a lot in the last two years; the best way to describe him as a pitcher is that of a high ceiling, but high maintenance and injury-prone. The Mets have spent the first three years of his deal manicuring a rotation around Senga’s needs so he can pitch only once per week and keep him in a familiar routine, essentially making their rotation about one player. And, for what? Not a whole lot, to be perfectly honest, and David Stearns said at the beginning of the winter it would be unfair to expect a meaningful contribution from Senga in 2026, given the recent track record.
Having said that, I don’t think the Mets moving on from Senga is as big of a slam dunk as it was two months ago, especially after what Dylan Cease got from Toronto, what Valdez is now likely to get from the Mets or another suitor following what was arguably an overpay for Cease, and the ever-escalating price in dollars and years for 30+ free agent starting pitching. I still wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets move Senga, but that could possibly depend on the quality they’re able to reel in on the external markets. Maybe the Mets are better off keeping Senga and his $14 million salary, rolling the dice on his health and sticking him in the back of a rotation that includes Nolan McLean, one or two acquisitions, David Peterson, and Sean Manaea? Maybe they keep Senga in the mix and create some bullpen competition out of Peterson and Manaea? Food for thought.
Anyway, back to the buzz…
The rumors around Valdez only seem to be getting louder. Last week, MLB insider Héctor Gómez of Z101 Digital labeled the Mets as the favorites to sign the lefty, and in the area of six years and $200 million, which equates to $33.33 million per season. That’s a lot, but again, when you consider what Cease got from Toronto, it stands to reason that Valdez would be in this stratosphere.
Also - the front office will have to come out of their comfort zone if they intend to improve their starting pitching. How much out of that comfort zone they’re willing to go remains to be seen.
Now, I do think that if the Mets were to sign Valdez, they would unquestionably be better in the short term, and now is the time for the Mets, especially with the Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring in a year and total uncertainty with the fabric of the game beyond that. He has averaged 192 innings pitched in each of the last four seasons; his 3.20 ERA is the fourth-best in the game during the same span; his 18.3 fWAR is the seventh-best in baseball during that span; he has thrown the fifth-most innings of any pitcher during that span; and his 61.6 percent roundball rate is the best in baseball since 2021. He has not experienced a dip in fastball velocity over the last year, but the peripheral stats have taken a turn in the wrong direction, which isn’t necessarily unexpected as a pitcher ages, but concerning when talking about this kind of contract for a 30+ pitcher.
On the other hand, while the Mets do indeed have a strong crop of pitching prospects here, having had a cup of coffee or are still in the pipeline, there are way too many IF’s to completely rely upon all of them heading into the 2026 season, especially when it’s clear Sproat and Tong need more time to develop in the minors and were arguably prematurely called to the big leagues out of sheer desperation at the end of the 2025 season.
In addition, one or more of them may not be in the organization come spring training since they might need them as parts of a trade to upgrade in other areas.
So, the Mets unquestionably will need to take warranted gambles in free agency this winter. And again, with someone like Valdez, it would be hard to believe the Mets wouldn’t be better in years 1-3 of a contract with him. The back end of that deal, based on what we might be seeing now, however, might be a problem.
Which brings me to King, who I think is the better fit assuming he can stay healthy.
King is a little younger than Valdez but comes with some risks of his own as he dealt with both knee inflammation and inflammation in his pitching shoulder this past season, and only has eclipsed 100 innings pitched twice in his entire career. Of course, he only recently became a starting pitcher, but remember, the Mets are still in the process of transitioning and keeping Clay Holmes healthy. Having two pitchers like this can be a little dicey, although I can live with that situation.
That being said, if the Mets are looking for ceiling here, King showed frontline starter traits in 2024 as he pitched to a 2.95 ERA and 3.33 FIP while making 30 starts. Putting King into a rotation alongside McLean and someone else via trade could be the best situation for both him and the club as they look to rebuild their staff.
King was really good in his 15 starts in 2025 - he had a 3.44 ERA with 76 strikeouts in 73.1 IP. And, he was a flyball-trend pitcher in 2025, which contrasts his career trend. Given where the Padres are with their ownership situation and reported finances, the odds seem long that he returns to San Diego after opting out of his side of their mutual $15.75 million option for 2026.
In addition, most projections have King in the four-year area and around $20 million per season. And, he knows New York, having pitched for the Yankees before they traded him to the Padres in their Juan Soto deal. Assuming he would come to the Mets, a situation with King might be more attractive for Stearns from a contract perspective than Valdez.
Then of course there’s Suárez, which is interesting and a little unexpected, although at this point if you’re a free agent, the Mets are kicking the tires on you with this owner.
Suárez is entering his age-30 season in 2026. He isn’t a big strikeout guy, but he is a master at inducing soft contact, getting hitters to chase, missing barrels, and dazzling hitters with his elite off-speed down in the zone, which has kept his home runs-per-nine-innings-allowed at an astounding 0.8 for the last five years. And that’s with Citizens Bank Park as his home park.
Again, he is not a big strikeout pitcher, averaging just 91.3 MPH on his fastball and ranking in the 24th percentile in whiffs this past year, per Baseball Savant, so it is yet to be seen how his game will translate as he ages and his velocity continues to dip. He has also never thrown more than 157 innings in a season, averaging about 139 innings per season over the last five years.
Suárez would be a step down from Valdez, albeit slightly. Since 2021, Suárez’s 3.25 ERA is eighth, his 51.9 percent ground ball rate is fifth, and his 15.2 fWAR is 15th.
The Mets don’t seem to be as heavily in on Suárez as they are Valdez, at least right now. I’d prefer Valdez over Suárez, but if we are talking six years for a 32-year-old pitcher who is already showing signs of wear and tear, that concerns me.
Then there’s the Imai thing, which the Mets appear to have been in on since he was posted. He’s a bit of an unknown, as are a lot of players who come out of the international markets. He was dominant in Japan this past season with a five-pitch arsenal featuring a fastball that can top out at 99 MPH. He should demand one of the bigger deals in free agency given his resume and skill. One thing to keep in mind is that teams have a greater ability today to project how a pitcher such as Imai will project in the big leagues thanks to the tools and technology which is widely used around the world in this industry. As such, there has been some noise about how Imai’s game would translate to the big leagues, whereas there wasn’t the same concern about Yoshinobu Yamamoto. At the same time, Imai probably won’t command a ten-year, $325 million contract.
Then of course, there’s the trade market, which is nothing short of fascinating right now.
The Twins are reportedly looking to keep their stars, including Ryan, Byron Buxton and Pablo López.
The Marlins seemed poised to trade some pitching, then they weren’t going to, but now appear to be interested in trading one of their starters, such as Sandy Alcantara or Edward Cabrera.
The Tigers could end up holding onto Tarik Skubal, although they are reportedly fielding interest in him. But if they want to contend in 2026, it will be hard to do that without him regardless of the return on Skubal.
The point is, the top end of the trade market for starting pitching is basically locked. The question is, will these clubs budge? In a normal game of cards, I’d say yes, eventually, especially after the top pitching chips come off the board in free agency.
But, this isn’t a normal game of cards.
The Marlins seem genuinely intent on trying to contend in 2026 after a strong second half in 2025. But, if they’re willing to move a starter, especially one or more of their top starters, someone needs to explain to me how that’s possible.
The Pirates seem committed to finally spending money on their payroll, and again, the Tigers cannot contend even in a mediocre AL Central without Skubal, no matter what else they add to their roster this winter.
That leaves the Twins, who sold off at the trade deadline in 2025 but kept Ryan, López and Buxton. So, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me why they would hold their prime assets unless they intend to seriously augment their roster and retool for 2026, which there is no evidence thereof right now. They kept Buxton presumably because he wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause, but if they change their stance and end up dealing López and/or Ryan this winter, perhaps he would be more inclined to be selective in waiving his no-trade clause now?
Eventually, something has to give in the trade market. It always does. But again, conventional wisdom isn’t necessarily prevailing here.
Around the League 🚩
The Mariners are acquiring LHP José A. Ferrer from the Nationals for top catching prospect Harry Ford (FanSided)
King (if healthy) for 4 years max sounds OK—and something Stearns might go along with. And Imai for more years (since he's younger) works, too.
McLean, King, Imai, Peterson, Holmes and Menaea or Senga make a good rotation. The latter guys could be in the pen.
It's just talk. I mean, going into the Winter Meetings, what are they going to say? No, we're not interested in adding pitching? That being said, historically, Stearns has been against signing pitchers to long term contracts. I don't see why that would change. Nor do I see them signing two Free Agent pitchers. The Mets have a stockpile of pitching talent coming up through their system. McLean, Sproat and Tong are just the first of the bunch. Some will get to Flushing and some will be trade capital. I think the trade route is a more likely scenario to add a top of the rotation starter.