The straws stirring the Mets drink...
Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo are carrying the Mets offense, playing like the All-Stars they deserve to be...
What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets hung on to beat the Nationals 7-5 at Citi Field on Tuesday night (box)
Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor provided the bulk of the run production - Nimmo hit a three-run home run in the second inning and Lindor hit a two-run home run in the sixth-inning
José Quintana twirled another gem against the Nationals, firing his second straight seven-inning scoreless effort in the last week to earn the win
The Mets bullpen nearly coughed up another one - with a seven run lead in the eighth inning, Adam Ottavino allowed a two-run home run and in the ninth, the Mets allowed three more, including a run that scored from second base on a wild pitch from Edwin Díaz
The Mets pulled back to .500 with the win, are 6-2 against the Nationals so far this season, are 16-16 in series openers, 14-12 against the NL East, 31-14 when scoring five or more runs, and 4-5 when their starting pitcher goes at least seven innings this season
With Nimmo hitting his 15th home run on Tuesday, the Mets are now one of four teams in MLB with three players that have 15 or more home runs on the year (Nimmo, Lindor and Pete Alonso) - Mets (3), Orioles (4), Dodgers (4), Yankees (4)
The Mets acquired help for their bullpen on Tuesday afternoon in a trade for Phil Maton with the Rays in exchange for cash considerations or a player to be named later (Story)
Playoff Race 🏇🏻
The Mets trail the Padres by 1.5 games for the final Wild Card spot with 72 games to play. Per FanGraphs, the Mets have a 34.8 percent chance of making the postseason in 2024. They have the fourth-easiest schedule in MLB the rest of the way.
Tiebreakers:
vs. ATL: 3-3
vs. AZ: 2-2
vs. STL: 3-2
vs. SD: 3-0
vs. SF: 2-4 (finished)
vs. PIT: 5-2 (finished)
Injury Updates 🏥
RHP Kodai Senga (right shoulder capsule strain) threw 2.2 IP on Tuesday for Triple-A Syracuse while allowing two hits, two walks, and no runs with three strikeouts. He threw 52 pitches, 30 strikes. He is expected to return from his rehab assignment once he’s able to successfully cross the 75-80 pitch threshold
RHP Sean Reid-Foley (shoulder impingement) recently threw from 120 feet on flat ground. He has yet to throw a bullpen session and is not expected to return until late July or early August
Who’s Hot 🔥
In his last five starts, José Quintana has a 0.89 ERA with just three earned runs allowed over 30.1 IP during that span
Down on the Farm 🌾
OF Carlos Cortes (Triple-A): 1-for-5, HR, RBI
RHP Tyler Stuart (Double-A): 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 5 K
RHP Jonathan Pintaro (High-A): 3.1 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 K
LHP Franklin Gómez (Low-A): 7 IP, 1 R, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K
BOX SCORES
Single-A STL | High-A BRK | Double-A BNG | Triple-A SYR
Today’s Game 🗓
Match-up: Mets (45-45) vs. Nationals (42-50)
Where: Citi Field - Flushing, NY
Starters: RHP Luis Severino (5-3, 3.83 ERA) vs. LHP Patrick Corbin (1-8, 5.49 ERA)
When: 7:10 PM EDT
Where to Watch: SNY
The straws stirring the Mets drink, why Phil Maton is a good first step, and notes on Quintana and the bullpen… ✍️
I think I have figured out a formula for the Mets.
Just shorten the game to 6-7 innings, and they can probably win 100 games in 2024.
I mean, look at how beautiful that game was for the first seven innings. José Quintana twirled another gem as his season continued to blossom. The Mets All-Star snubs (Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor) powered up to drive in five of the seven runs with homers and, in an ideal world, the Mets were en route to a comfortable 6-0 win.
But of course, nothing is ever what it might seem with this bullpen which is tired, overworked, hurt and overexposed on any given day.
But we can talk about all of that in a second, especially since help is on the way with Phil Maton being brought into the fold from the Rays. After all, the Mets did win on Tuesday and pulled back to .500 after what can be considered a disappointing road trip through Washington and Pittsburgh.
And there were so many positives from Tuesday night’s game, I simply don’t want to spoil it by talking about something negative, like the bullpen.
But I promise, I will get to that in a bit.
Right now, the Mets need to score as many runs as they possibly can, and the offense did their job, specifically Nimmo and Lindor who combined to go 4-for-9 with two home runs, five RBI with three of the seven runs scored on the night. They both unquestionably deserve to be All-Stars, everyone knows it, and since their snub the other day they seem to playing with that chip on their shoulder. I do believe at least one of them will eventually be on the team, but it just seems silly certain others made it while they did not.
For Nimmo specifically, he has put forth an outstanding campaign and really an outstanding calendar year. In his last 149 games dating back to a year ago, Nimmo has hit .266/.364/.477 with 26 home runs, 85 RBI and 94 runs scored.
That’s elite level production.
As for Lindor, he’s had a very similar trajectory as Nimmo despite a really rough first six weeks of this season. In his last 160 games, Lindor is hitting .262/.366/.457 with 28 home runs, 86 RBI and 113 runs scored.
Now we just need to figure out April and May for Lindor.
All-in-all, they’ve been the straw that stirs the drink for the Mets offense so far this season.
They need to be in Arlington next week.
I also wanted to mention Harrison Bader who has quietly been very, very good for the Mets this season. He had three more hits and scored two runs for the Mets on Tuesday, setting the table nicely for both Nimmo and Lindor when they homered. He brings a contact-first approach to the plate with a level swing and an ability to cover the strike zone both horizontally and vertically. He’s shown an ability to hit balls up in the zone and balls on the outer half as well productively with some clutch hitting in between for this club. And of course he has speed and is a plus defender as well, proving to be a big upgrade in center field with his defense alone. He’s stayed healthy as well, demonstrating his intangibles both physically and emotionally for this club which has gone under-discussed throughout the year.
Then of course there is Quintana, who has transformed his season over the last month, and it couldn’t come at a better time. He’s allowed three earned runs in his last 30.1 IP, a span of five starts which, if you do the math, averages out to just over six innings per start. That alone is a win for this starting rotation which has routinely struggled to throw even five innings much of the time this year.
He has lowered his ERA for the season from 5.21 on June 9 to 3.91 today. He is never going to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, especially in this day and age where Quintana is more like a throwback to someone like Tom Glavine, relying on change-ups and breaking balls away to be successful. But this is what the Mets need him to be, which is a steady and reliable innings eater, especially with a bullpen which can’t get out of it’s own way.
Speaking of the bullpen…
A day can’t go by without having to mention the bullpen around here, can it? Mind you, the Mets still won, and while Maton is coming, David Stearns unquestionably needs a quick second act to reconstructing this bullpen.
Now, to be fair, these relievers have been overused and overexposed which in part is why they’re not performing. Quintana did give the Mets seven innings on Tuesday, but the main reason for their overuse and overexposure has been their starting pitchers’ inability to provide any consistent length.
The rotation is averaging just over 5.1 IP per game this season, which means the bullpen is being asked for more 12-15 outs on average per game. That is not sustainable, it isn’t healthy, and that’s how relievers get hurt and overused.
And in the case of the Mets specifically, overuse has arguably put three relievers on the shelf with arm injuries, two of which are out for the year in Brooks Raley and Drew Smith.
It’s funny - organizations coddle their starting pitchers to a point where they routinely prevent them from even sniffing 100 pitches in a game, which is their effort to protect their arms and prevent their overexposure by not allowing them to face batting orders a third and fourth time through.
But, did anyone ever stop to think about the relievers? After all, Reed Garrett has thrown in three of the last four days and has compiled over 70 pitches during that span alone.
I just can’t seem to figure out why he’s become less effective. I think it’s a miracle he’s still healthy, although this day is just beginning.
Mind you - I am not suggesting clubs let their starting pitchers get run into the ground or risk injury. Not at all. Too much is invested in these guys. I’m just saying - don’t forget about these relievers who, when they get hurt seemed to get tossed aside for the next guy to be run into the ground on a daily basis.
The problem of course for the Mets is, at least right now, they don’t have anyone who can even get outs right now. Maybe Dedniel Núñez but it remains to be seen how overexposed he’s been as well. Whether its Garrett, Adam Ottavino and even Edwin Díaz, there are too many non-competitive innings from their bullpen and they can’t outscore this deficiency all the time.
That’s why I am truly applauding David Stearns for getting Maton now. They simply had to start making moves. They couldn’t wait anymore - they will fall out of contention if they don’t look to reconstruct this bullpen right now. I’ve been saying it for a number of weeks now - again, I am glad they acted.
They are out of choices between the big leagues and Triple-A, they’ve played too many games in a row where they haven’t gotten enough from the starters and have been forced to ask way too much from their bullpen, a bullpen which was the indisputable weak link coming into the season at that.
Make no mistake - Maton is not going to be a savior for this team. He has his flaws, he has worked through his own bout of control problems this year as well. But the club firmly believes those problems are behind him, and his last month’s worth of work is evidence of that. He’s doing the things the Mets need from their relievers right now, and its as good of a first step for Stearns he can possibly make given the trade market still hasn’t really opened.
Also - for what it’s worth, Maton has been lights out in his career in the playoffs.
Let’s see what else Stearns has up his sleeve over the next couple of weeks.
Around the League 🚩
The Phillies scored six runs in the fourth inning en route to a 10-1 rout of the Dodgers, although Zack Wheeler left his start early with a back issue
Carlos Rodón struggled again as the Yankees fell to the Rays 5-3
The surprising Red Sox scored eight runs in the third inning and staved off a late comeback attempt by the A’s with a 12-9 win
The Braves beat the D-Backs 6-2, their fourth win in a row thanks in part to another strong start from Chris Sale
The other way to deal with starters who don't go long is to have relievers who throw multiple innings, which is why Butto and Hauser are in the pen. Neither is very good (Hauser too many hits, Butto too many walks), but they are both better than Diekman, Garrett, Ottavion (and Orze who will soon go down to AAA)
The mantra that the bullpen is over-worked is not supported by empirical evidence.
Met relievers have pitched the 17th most innings in MLB;
on a per game basis Mets relievers are 15th at 3.60 innings per game.
They are not over-worked - they are just not very good for one simple reason:
they walk too many batters.
Reed Garrett is not over-worked. He has thrown the 31st most innings among relievers in MLB
He has walked 22 in 42 innings
Diekman has walked 22 in 26 innings
This is not due to over-work - this is in line with their prior years, as they are simply not any good
The over-worked narrative needs to go
Drew Smith was not overworked - he was never any good.
Brooks Raley was not over-worked - just what happens to 37-year olds.
The startes could go longer, and they have recently and they will when 6-man takes hold
They need better relievers;
there is no way Ottavion, Garrett, or Diekman should be on the Mets if we hope to contend.