The Mets keep leaving the door open in NL playoff race
New York loses their series vs. the Reds over the weekend. Plus, let's talk about the elephant in the room when it comes to the Mets young starters
What’s up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets disappointingly dropped the rubber game in Cincinnati on Sunday, falling to the Reds by the score of 3-2 (box)
New York collected only three hits in this game, two of which were solo home runs from Brett Baty and Juan Soto
RHP Brandon Sproat started for the Mets in what was his long awaited Major League debut, and pitched well, going six innings while allowing three earned runs on three hits and four walks. He struck out seven. He became the second Mets pitcher since 1974 to produce a no-hit bid of at least 5.1 innings in his
MLB debut, joining Brian Bannister (also 5.1 IP, 4/5/06)
Reds’ righty Hunter Greene was a problem for the Mets all day, dominating the Amazins’ across seven one hit innings, while striking out an eye opening 12
The Mets threatened to tie the game in the 9th, but with two on and one out Starling Marte grounded into a 6-4-3 double play to end the contest
Injury Updates 🏥
RHP Tylor Megill (elbow strain) allowed five runs in two innings for Triple-A Syracuse
OF José Siri (fractured Tibia) went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts from Triple-A Syracuse
Roster Moves 📰
RHP Brandon Sproat selected from Triple-A Syracuse
RHP Reed Garrett activated from 15-day IL
RHP Wander Suero optioned to Triple-A Syracuse
RHP Kevin Herget optioned to Triple-A Syracuse
RHP Justin Garza designated for assignment
Playoff Race 🏁
The Phillies lost to the Marlins on Sunday, but with the Mets loss to the Reds it is even more unlikely New York can be a factor in the NL East down the stretch. The two teams begin a four game series in Philadelphia tonight, and the Mets simply have to win all four if they want to mount a Hail Mary division comeback.
Meanwhile, the Giants fell to the Cardinals, and the Diamondbacks lost to the Red Sox.
The Mets have a four game cushion on the rest of the field when it comes to he final Wild Card berth in the National League.
The Mets own the tiebreaker over the Giants and Cardinals, but the Reds own the tiebreaker over the Mets. So, in that case, if the Mets and Reds finish in a tie, the Reds would either receive a higher seed or eliminate the Mets. If the Mets and Giants and/or the Mets and Cardinals finish in a tie, the Mets would receive the higher seed or eliminate the Giants and/or Cardinals.
The Mets and Diamondbacks tied their season series 3-3, so the tiebreaker will be determined by their records against their own divisions at the end of the season (rules).
Per Fangraphs, the Mets have a 93.3% chance to reach the postseason.
Stat of the Day 📊
Per the Elias Sports Bureau, With Jonah Tong’s start on Saturday, Brandon Sproat’s MLB debut on Sunday, and Nolan McLean’s scheduled start on Monday in Philadelphia, the Mets will have started three straight pitchers with each having made four career Major League appearances or fewer for the first time in franchise history
Play of the Game ⭐️
In a tie game in the 6th inning, Elly De La Cruz ripped a double to the game that plated Noelvi Marte to give the Reds the lead. De La Cruz scampered to 3rd on the throw home, which forced the Mets to bring the infield in with one out. This gave the Reds a 2-1 lead and they never looked back from there.
Down on the Farm 🌾
INF Yonny Hernandez (Triple-A): 2-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI
IF Yonatan Henriquez (High-A): 2-for-5, 2 RBI
BOX SCORES
Single-A STL (Cancelled) | High-A BRK | Double-A BNG | Triple-A SYR
Today’s Game 🗓️
Match-up: Mets (76-67) at Phillies (83-60)
Where: Citizens Bank Park — Philadelphia, PA
Starters: RHP Nolan McLean (4-0 1.37 ERA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (3-8, 6.78 ERA)
When: 6:45 PM EDT
Where to Watch: SNY
The elephant in the room when it comes to the Mets young starters ✍️
RHP Brandon Sproat became the third of the Mets’ highly touted starting pitching prospects to reach the Major Leagues in less than a month yesterday, and while the Mets did not win the game, he sure did not look overmatched.
Sproat took a no-hitter into the 6th inning, and while his final line of six innings, three earned runs, three hits, four walks, and seven strikeouts, was not overwhelmingly impressive, the eye test will tell you he pitched better than that.
The Mets are rightfully excited about what the trio of Sproat, Nolan McLean, and Jonah Tong can do both now and in the future, and the other day Linda wrote a great piece about the three of them dictating how far these 2025 Mets can go.
They—along with David Peterson—clearly have taken the reins in a Mets rotation that has largely been up and down this season, and the youngsters are undoubtedly well ahead of veterans Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea on a potential postseason rotation depth chart.
The problem with that is that unless the Mets are going to do something most organizations are not comfortable doing, the idea of the young trio pitching deep into October comes with a catch.
Arm care gets more attention than ever these days, and most organizations will tell you a 30-inning increase year over year is the magic number.
So let’s take a look at where the Mets’ young arms are, beginning with Sproat since he just pitched yesterday.
In his first professional season a year ago, the 24-year-old threw 116 innings across three levels of the Mets’ minor league system.
In 26 minor league outings this year prior to his promotion yesterday, he’d thrown 121. He went six innings against the Reds to get to 127. The Mets have 19 games remaining in the regular season, which would dictate three more potential starts for Sproat. Estimating he works around 17 innings in those three starts, he’ll finish the season at 144—just about exactly the number the team would deem an acceptable cut-off.
How far are the Mets really willing to push him in 2025?
Tong is the youngest of the trio in this discussion, and his innings put him in a similar boat as Sproat. He worked 113.2 minor league innings in 22 starts this season after tossing exactly 113 in 2024. In two Major League outings, he’s gone 11 more to get to 124.2. Like Sproat, he would be lined up to make three more starts before the season ends, and if we guess he works 16.1 more innings, he’ll finish the regular season at 141. Again, that would be just about exactly where most teams would stop a young heralded arm.
McLean, meanwhile, has been otherworldly to begin his career, but his situation is even more dire than Sproat’s if the Mets are planning to shut him down at a certain inning number. In 25 minor league starts a season ago, he tossed 109.2 frames. Prior to his Major League promotion a few weeks ago, he’d already thrown 113.2, and in his four starts with the Mets, he’s gone 26.1. That has him at exactly 140 innings for the season, which would place him precisely at where teams typically would stop their young hurlers. Obviously, that isn’t happening right now, as McLean is starting the game against the Phillies tonight. He then would be lined up to make three more regular season starts before a potential playoff run.
So, the million-dollar question becomes, if the Mets were to go on another deep October run, how would the Mets be able to manage this innings and load management problem with their promising trio of starting pitchers?
Perhaps the Mets could piggyback them with other starting pitchers, but that isn’t exactly a proven strategy, especially in the playoffs. And the Mets need their most competitive options out there for as long as possible as well. Sure, rotations are used differently in the playoffs now than they were in the past, but that doesn’t really alleviate the problem for the Mets needing to balance competition with health preservation of their three best pitching prospects.
These three pitchers are the most exciting thing the Mets have going right now, but it bears watching how the Mets will handle them down the stretch. And it further exacerbates just how problematic it has been that both Senga and Manaea (and even Peterson) have been disappointing here in the second half.
Around the League 🚩
Mariners hitters Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, and Jorge Polanco all drove in three runs in Seattle’s 18-2 drubbing of the Braves
Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw earned his 10th win of the season in a 5-2 win in Baltimore — marking the 13th time the lefty has reached double digits in victories
Yankees LHP Max Fried went seven strong innings to out-duel Max Scherzer as New York topped Toronto, 4-3
Pirates top prospect Bubba Chandler made his first MLB start on Sunday and got shelled by the Brewers, allowing nine runs on nine hits in only 2.2 innings
Marlins 2B Otto Lopez homered twice in Miami’s 5-4 win over the Phillies
This team is just destined to make things interesting. The Mets never do anything the “easy” way. I suspect they will lose enough to let more than one team back into the race only to need a win or two with 3 games left to clinch. Mebbe they do. Mebbe they don’t. Luckily I love college football more than the pros because both NY football teams will be horrible this year and should keep me with interested in baseball until the season ends.