The Mets biggest need for 2026 remains untouched, for now
Plus, notes on Cody Bellinger and where the Mets stood with Tatsuya Imai
🎉 Happy New Year, from all of us at Just Mets! 🎉
What’s up with the Mets? 🍎
The Yankees are holding firm on their price to sign OF Cody Bellinger, leaving the Mets, Angels, Blue Jays and Dodgers in the mix (MLB.com)
A trade for a top starting pitcher remains the most realistic path for the Mets (MLB.com)
The Mets were never seriously engaged with RHP Tatsuya Imai - the Mets weren’t sold on Imai’s ability to be an impact starter (NY Post | MLB.com)
Rumor Mill 💨
The Yankees have an offer out to Bellinger, are fielding trade interest in Jazz Chisholm Jr., and have also checked in on INF Bo Bichette (NY Post)
The Pirates, Padres, Cubs, Blue Jays and Red Sox are showing interest in INF Kazuma Okamoto, who has until Sunday to sign (NY Post)
RHP Kona Takahashi may go back to Japan for the 2026 season (MLB.com)
The part that really sunk the 2025 Mets remains untouched as 2026 begins ✍️
It has certainly been a quiet week for the Mets, although the same can’t be said for some other clubs. Tatsuya Imai is joining the Astros, Tyler Mahle is going to the Giants, and there have been some other smaller moves during the holiday.
To be fair, this is usually a very quiet week around baseball, so there’s no reason to be upset about the Mets being generally idle. It doesn’t mean moves can’t be made - the Astros obviously added what they feel is a big piece to their rotation in Imai, while the Mets reportedly didn’t believe Imai was particularly impactful. They were generally concerned about how his stuff might translate from the NPB to the big leagues. The Astros apparently disagree with that position, as they reportedly feel like they got themselves a gem from overseas.
Time will tell - if Imai has a big year in 2026, he will opt out, enter free agency again, and we will see if there are some bigger market clubs - like the Mets - who will be interested.
The one thing to keep in mind about Japanese pitchers in particular is that clubs are better positioned these days - thanks to all of the technology - to project how they might fare at this level. Spin rate is spin rate regardless of where a pitcher is pitching, and there are other factors of course which help clubs evaluate those players.
For the Mets particularly, the last thing they need is more uncertainty in their rotation, even if someone like Imai offers significant upside. They need a rock for the rotation, they need someone they know will come in here and give them quality innings, they need stability and reliability. And to be fair, Imai probably offers none of that, at least today.
Of course, something is better than nothing and the Mets have literally done nothing to their rotation in the three months since that part of the roster sunk their season.
Now, I do believe it’s fair to expect rebounds to an extent from some of their incumbents, but again, there’s nobody who can be considered truly reliable in this rotation right now, and that includes Clay Holmes and Nolan McLean since they are pretty new at this at the big league level. That doesn’t mean they won’t be fine and actually get better - I believe they will and they will be a part of whatever solution they employ in 2026. There’s also the other young starters in Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, and Christian Scott who should all be impactful presences for the rotation, assuming one or more of them aren’t traded for a veteran. As Andrew wrote yesterday, one can only hope David Peterson can put together a full season of consistency, assuming he isn’t moved. And, perhaps one or both of Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga will bounce back. After all, it’s hard for both to be worse, right?
Well, they can be worse, but let’s take the optimistic path for the time being.
As for that often-talked-about veteran starting pitcher…
The Mets continue to be “opportunistic” when it comes to free agents such as Framber Valdez, who came into the winter commanding a long-term deal and seemed poised to get one when Dylan Cease got seven years, $210 million. And just so we are clear, the word opportunistic means the Mets or any other club will sign any player if their prices come to them, which generally means below their initial ask.
But, Valdez, who is tied to draft compensation, is still a free agent, and there are six weeks left before Spring Training starts. That could mean there might be an opportunity for the Mets to come in below that sticker price. Of course, if Valdez does or already has lowered his ask, that would unquestionably open the door for more suitors to come in and meet that ask.
I still don’t think the Mets will ultimately sign Valdez. Even if he has to settle for a 3-4 year deal, it’s hard to believe the Mets would give up the draft compensation and international bonus pool money to sign him. The draft pick issue isn’t as significant as the penalty to their international free agent bonus pool, which would be $1 million since they exceeded the CBT threshold in 2025 and they are always so heavily invested in international free agency.
It actually makes less sense for the Mets to sign a player who received a qualifying offer to a short-term deal, considering the penalties.
That’s probably one of the reasons why the Mets are better positioned to make a trade for a big arm, even if it costs a bigger prospect. It’s still unclear if the Tigers would be willing to trade Tarik Skubal, and it’s unclear how much risk the Mets would be willing to take as far as prospect capital goes to get him. They are not a Skubal away from a championship right now, and that kind of trade is usually that, “final piece” move for a club.
They could still entertain a deal for one of the Marlins arms, such as Sandy Alcantara or Edward Cabrera. They at least come with some control-ability, and the Mets could always get one of them and sign Skubal next winter.
The Mariners don’t seem eager to trade away from their rotation right now, although it could make some sense for them to shop Luis Castillo. He is by no means a savior, but he is still a reliable strike-throwing veteran who can be a good secondary value add for the Mets with two years and $45.5 million guaranteed. He has a vesting option for 2028 at $25 million if he throws at least 180 innings in 2027 and is deemed healthy for 2028, and it’s a conditional option for $5 million if Castillo is on the injured list for more than 130 consecutive innings at any point between 2026-2027 as a result of an injury to his UCL.
Even so, I really feel like the Mets need two upgrades for their rotation, even if it means they have to deal one of Peterson or Senga to make that happen. Again, there is nothing truly reliable in this rotation; people will get hurt, and it’s completely unfair to pin all of that pressure on their young arms to perform.
A lot of work to do, and time is running shorter and shorter. But, because there’s work to do and roster spots to fill, we can at least expect activity to pick up now that the holiday is over.
No need to "address" the pitching. The Mets starting staff was compromised to start the season, with Manaea and Montas on the IL, then decimated in June as Senga, Canning and Megill went down within days of each other. Prior to that, the Mets staff had led MLB in team ERA. You can't predict injuries. To lose the entire staff like that isn't a common occurrence. If I had to fault Stearns for anything, it was not picking up a veteran starter after losing Manaea and Montas in Spring Training, especially since Jose Quintana was still on the FA market.
With a healthy Senga and Manaea, joining Peterson, Holmes and McLean, the Mets starting staff is as good as anyone in the National League with Sproat, Tong and Scott just a call away in Syracuse.
Until Stearns actually gets this team to where it was at the end of the 2025 season, aside from improving it, I'm thinking 2026 is a punt season