The Mets are in on everyone (almost)!

The Mets are still casting a wide net on roster improvements ahead of the winter meetings — where should David Stearns start?

What’s up with the Mets? 🍎

• Pete Alonso is considered Scott Boras’s top client heading into this year’s Winter Meetings (Athletic)

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Rumor Mill 🔎

• Despite his no-trade clause, the Cardinals are still actively shopping Nolan Arenado (MLB Network)

• The Tigers are interested in starter Michael King and closer Pete Fairbanks (ESPN)

• The Nationals have spoken with multiple clubs about a Mackenzie Gore trade (ESPN)

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The Just Mets Podcast 🎙️

ICYMI: On the latest installment of the Just Mets pod, Rich and Andrew Claudio reacted to the Devin Williams news and several other key recent reports.

SUBSCRIBE: YouTube | Apple Podcasts | Spotify

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The rumor mill is buzzing around the Mets!

This Hot Stove Season is already off to a roaring start.

With the departures of Brandon Nimmo and the additions of Marcus Semien and Devin Williams, the Mets’ winter is already off to a less-than-cold start — and it’s (supposedly) only going to keep getting hotter.

Early yesterday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel ranked the top 25 players they anticipate getting traded this winter…the Mets were connected to most of them.

While we’ve talked before about some of the more popular names on this list, there were some newer connections drawn in the article that piqued my interest more than others. Though the outfield and infield corners remain relative question marks, this morning I want to focus on two players who can potentially help bolster the Mets’ rotation, even considering the recent injury baggage they’re carrying.

Pablo López

Erik Williams—USA TODAY Sports

Passan Trade Pct.: 50%

• 2025 Stats: 75.2 IP, 312 TBF, 2.74 ERA (3.19 FIP), 1.11 WHIP, 73 K-20 BB (23.4-6.4 K-BB%), 75.4 LOB%, 1.8 fWAR

Despite an injury-plagued 2025 season, López feels like a strong bounce-back candidate for 2026. Heading into last season, López posted three consecutive 180+ inning seasons, including a 190+ campaign in 2023. And even though he missed considerable time last season, when he was on the mound, he was plenty effective, as indicated by both his 2.74 ERA and 3.19 FIP. His fastball velocity sat roughly where it has for the last few seasons, and his sweeper was downright dominant, eliciting a 40% whiff rate and a measly .183 SLG. With two years left on his deal at roughly $22M a year, a move for López could be an excellent backup option to a long-proposed Joe Ryan trade.

Considering how vastly limited López’s sample size was last season relative to the three prior, I’m loath to draw too many firm conclusions about his performance last season, especially when I consider that most of his missed time was due to a shoulder injury — a shoulder issue would explain some issues with his fastball this season that made it much more hittable than it has been previously. Still, there really wasn’t much to dislike when López was on the mound: all of his surface and underlying stats largely fell within his established career norms.

If his health is back to 100% heading into spring training, I don’t see why the Mets wouldn’t at least try to make a move here. Looking at Minnesota’s depth chart and prospect rankings, there are a few directions the Mets could go to make a deal (how much does the Twins front office believe in Brooks Lee as an everyday shortstop? Do they like Mark Vientos as a 3B/DH option?) Adding López would do quite a bit to lengthen and stabilize a rotation that already has ample question marks…provided he seems devoid of any of his own.

Kris Bubic

Jordan Godfree—Imagn Images

Passan Trade Pct.: 30%

• 2025 Stats: 116.1 IP, 476 TBF, 2.55 ERA (2.89 FIP), 1.11 WHIP, 116 K-39 BB (24.4-8.2 K-BB%), 47.2 GB%, 77.5 LOB%, 3.3 fWAR

Bubic’s case is a tricky one. After starting his career with a 4.89 ERA over his first 300 innings, Bubic came roaring back from Tommy John surgery in 2023. In 150 innings of work since his return, he’s posted a 2.58 ERA (2.89 FIP) with a 1.15 WHIP, 26% K rate, and 4.3 fWAR. He deploys several plus-grade pitches, including a particularly devastating sweeper-changeup combo: each pitch elicited a sub-.200 average and sub-.300 slug from hitters while generating above-average swing-and-miss rates (including a near-40% mark from the changeup). On the surface, there’s a lot to like about what Bubic brings to the table.

However, I wonder how much of his recent emergence can be tied back to his recent uptick in average velocity, and how sustainable that increase is. Since returning from injury in July 2024, Bubic’s average fastball velo has jumped from 91.5 to 92.5 mph. While this may not seem like a big deal, that seemingly small increase in velo can have wide-ranging impacts, from changes in pitch shape and movement to trackable improvements in runs allowed, all of which Bubic was a beneficiary of. I’m not aiming to outright dismiss his improvements as temporary or freakish, but looking at his pitch profile from last season in comparison with those from 2020-2023, we’re essentially talking about two totally different pitchers. Additionally, his 2025 campaign was cut short by a rotator cuff injury, so we’ve really only seen one complete season of the ‘new-and-improved’ Bubic. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to want to see more before making any definitive ‘sneaky ace’ declarations.

Considering Bubic’s rental and injury statuses, there’s only so far I’d be willing to go to acquire him, and barring giving up Baty, I don’t see a perfect trade option here. While Jeff McNeil headlines the Mets’ current trade candidates, the Royals need an upgrade in the outfield, and given McNeil’s rotator cuff injury, I don’t think he’s a legitimate option to slot in over MJ Melendez in that spot. I suppose Vientos would be a relative upgrade for KC at DH, but that again feels a bit one-sided. As much as the Royals are hurting for offense, Vientos would only solve half their current puzzle. Unless I’m missing something, the whole thing feels a little shaky.

Still, if he stays healthy and establishes his latest production as his new baseline, I think Bubic could be a solid addition to the back end of this rotation. Provided the Mets can orchestrate a deal that makes sense, he offers plenty to like, and I’d be curious to see what Justin Willard’s new pitching department could coax out of him.

(Would I rather they acquire the likes of Cole Ragans? Yes, but that’s a conversation for another day/season.)

Bonus: Should the Mets even consider a play for Nolan Arenado?

As we’ve already learned this offseason, no-trade clauses really are just a formality.

The Cardinals have been aching to offload Nolan Arenado’s contract seemingly since they signed it, but they’ve been unable to do so largely because of his full no-trade protection. However, I’d also venture to guess his steadily waning performance, coupled with his pricey contract, has slowly but surely reduced his number of interested suitors, leaving St. Louis scrambling to maximize whatever trade value he has left.

I’ve loved the idea of Arenado in a Mets uniform increasingly less for the last few seasons, for a few reasons: his slugging and on-base abilities have dropped precipitously and rapidly, his defense is starting to look closer to average than elite, and he’s owed $31M over the next two seasons.

In other words, he just isn’t that good anymore.

“Hey, wait a minute, didn’t you just write a whole thing last week about how Marcus Semien shouldn’t be judged for a bad age-34 season and that he was totally worth the risk for far more annual dollars?” Sure did! In my mind, it’s a fairly easy call.

Looking at their numbers side by side, Semien and Arenado have been comparable players over the last few seasons, but Semien comes out on top. Since 2021 (Arenado’s first season in St. Louis, Semien’s torrid Toronto season), Semien has outpaced Arenado in both offensive and defensive WAR. If you want to narrow the sample size to just the last two seasons, Semien’s weakest ones, he still comes out on top. Hell, as rough as he was at the dish this past season alone, Semien was still more valuable than Arenado.

To me, the move for Semien was a defensive-first one with hopes that his bat corrects itself and goes back to the league-average baseline he’s established throughout his career. With Arenado, if his premium glove is a bit less premium than it used to be, and his bat has also been on a three-year decline…I don’t see how adding him benefits the team more than, say, rolling with Brett Baty full-time (Baty was also better than Arenado last year, by the way…and he’s only 26.)

On the other side, I don’t see any way St. Louis wouldn’t end up better than the Mets after doing a deal like this. First of all, I don’t think the Cardinals would have any interest in McNeil — they’re clearly looking to lean into their new young core, and swapping one mid-30s (respectfully) fading infielder for another just isn’t worth it for either ball club. A package like this would require Baty or Vientos going to the Gateway city, both of whom provided more value than Arenado last year, and considering the latter’s steady decline, the Mets would need to insist that the Redbirds cough up someone or something else to sweeten the deal. It’s a pass from me.

There’s also Tarik Skubal, who is a perfect fit for the Mets, of course, and they have the prospect capital to get a deal done. But as Passan and many others have said over the last month, Detroit doesn’t seem motivated to move him at this point in the winter.

Passan also lists the Mets among fits to trade for star infielder Ketel Marte, RHP Freddy Peralta, RHP Hunter Greene, RHP Joe Ryan, OF Byron Buxton, OF Jarren Duran, OF Steven Kwan, OF Wilyer Abreu, RHP Mitch Keller, and OF Luis Robert Jr. with varying degrees of probability that each will be moved. Arms like Peralta and Greene seem less likely to move right now than Ryan, the aforementioned López, and perhaps Keller, but the Brewers are reportedly concerned about their 2026 payroll, and the Reds’ desire to move players could be impacted by their ability or inability to sign some free agent bats in an effort to boost their middling offense.

Interestingly enough, Passan did not list the Mets among possible suitors for RHP Sandy Alcantara, although as is the case with Detroit and Cincinnati, it’s not entirely clear if Miami even wants to consider moving their ace this winter after their promising second half in 2025 and the apparent desire to augment their roster and payroll ahead of 2026.

But, as is often the case, teams who send signals of an unwillingness to move players can often be a case of, “bring us your best offer, and we will talk.” So, let’s see how this all plays out.

In the end, the Mets are mostly in on everyone in what is already shaping up to be a crazy and unpredictable winter for them. With the Winter Meetings looming, there’s surely no shortage of further offseason rumors and reports on the immediate horizon. Whether the Mets emerge with a rebuilt bullpen, a retained slugger and closer, or a revamped rotation, what matters most is that they don’t leave empty-handed. Next week will likely shape the roadmap for the rest of the offseason, so it needs to be a productive one for this front office.

Let’s get weird!

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Around the League 🚩

• The Blue Jays continued lengthening their rotation, inking KBO breakout RHP Cody Ponce to a three-year deal (ESPN)

• The Angels signed embattled starter Alek Manoah to a one-year deal (MLB.com)

• The Astros signed RHP Ryan Weiss to a minor-league deal (MLB Trade Rumors)

• New Red Sox starter Sonny Gray offered some choice words regarding his Yankees tenure, stating he never wanted to go there to begin with (MLB.com)