Should the Mets bring back a homegrown star, or is going all out for a marquee third baseman the better move? Plus, the Sean Manaea return is official.
Boras is obviously playing a major role in the Alonso negotiations. I’d like to think that Cohen/Stearns would offer a fair deal to Alonso that is loaded with incentives such that he’d have a fantastic payday, with performance. Boras is holding out for guaranteed money. Unfortunately, Boras is also Bergman’s agent too, so sadly, he has a ton of leverage. I hope the Mets get one of them signed in time for a normal spring training. A late signing does no good to anyone except for Boras.
I like the new three year $90 million offer being floated will opt outs each year. If Pete has a monster year he could move on. Higher AAV and less years is a David Stearns special. Bregman would be great but it would be a long commitment into his declining years. Look at the Tigers choking on Javy Baez’s contract and thinking about releasing him with three years and $75 million still on the table. Long term contracts have long been the death of baseball and it is critical to get enough years in before the decline. Still wondering what Soto will be like at 33, half way through his contract, let alone as he ages from there. Even generational talents start to decline on the other side of 30. Since they no longer pay for Verlander, Scherzer, McCann, Narvaez and Houser, they have those dollars to spend if they wish to do so. Not sure how they would sign both Alonso and Bregman without giving them comparable salaries for too many years. But since it’s not my money, just get it done and give us some championships.
One other fact should be considered regarding signing Bregman ----- bc the Mets are above the CBT threshold, signing Soto (who rejected his Qualifying Offer, QO) means they lose their 2nd round and 5th round draft picks plus $1 million of international bonus pool money; if they also sign Bregman (who also rejected his QO), they will further lose their 3rd round and 6th round draft picks!
Good analysis. The emotional choice is Pete, of course. But looking at Bregman's second half, from a strictly logical and analytic perspective, it makes sense to bring him in at third and move Vientos to first.
Projecting out, that's basically .275 25 HR 90 RBI, at least, on the corners, with the possibility of both guys going 30-plus with over 100 RBI. If the double play combination is Lindor and Acuna (who may indeed be ready), that's a heck of an infield.
It's really hard to see Pete at a $30 million AAV, though. And if Bregman is truly looking for a $200 million contract, that's tough to see, too.
Something like 5 years, $125 million -- maybe with some opt-outs or tail end options to sweeten the pot -- might get it done. Maybe a little more ($135-140 million) would do it. And I mean for either guy.
Looking at the options, Bregman has more tools, better pedigree and would probably come for less than Alonso. I was so disappointed with Alonso last year. 170+ Strikeouts and less than 100 runs scored, and less than 90 RBI as your clean up batter, is simply not productive. The year before wasn't any better. If it wasn't for the HR in Milwaukee, most fans would have wanted him long gone right now. Bregman's year offensively wasn't great either but he still posted a 4+ WAR and improves the defense (Vientos isn't great defensively). Allows for more flexibility as Andrew states well in this article. Both 30 years old, similar offensive stats, but one is clearly a better option bringing more intangibles that should result in more WINS!
I'd make a final offer to Pete that is fair and realistic to both parties, and if they leave it on the table so be it. As you show Michael, Bregman is a terrific option and would really strengthen the left side of the infield.
I know it’s not my money but I think Bregman might be too expensive. I think I’d rather Pete’s power bat in the lineup for the next 4 years. I’ll be happy with either though
Boras is obviously playing a major role in the Alonso negotiations. I’d like to think that Cohen/Stearns would offer a fair deal to Alonso that is loaded with incentives such that he’d have a fantastic payday, with performance. Boras is holding out for guaranteed money. Unfortunately, Boras is also Bergman’s agent too, so sadly, he has a ton of leverage. I hope the Mets get one of them signed in time for a normal spring training. A late signing does no good to anyone except for Boras.
I like the new three year $90 million offer being floated will opt outs each year. If Pete has a monster year he could move on. Higher AAV and less years is a David Stearns special. Bregman would be great but it would be a long commitment into his declining years. Look at the Tigers choking on Javy Baez’s contract and thinking about releasing him with three years and $75 million still on the table. Long term contracts have long been the death of baseball and it is critical to get enough years in before the decline. Still wondering what Soto will be like at 33, half way through his contract, let alone as he ages from there. Even generational talents start to decline on the other side of 30. Since they no longer pay for Verlander, Scherzer, McCann, Narvaez and Houser, they have those dollars to spend if they wish to do so. Not sure how they would sign both Alonso and Bregman without giving them comparable salaries for too many years. But since it’s not my money, just get it done and give us some championships.
RJT
One other fact should be considered regarding signing Bregman ----- bc the Mets are above the CBT threshold, signing Soto (who rejected his Qualifying Offer, QO) means they lose their 2nd round and 5th round draft picks plus $1 million of international bonus pool money; if they also sign Bregman (who also rejected his QO), they will further lose their 3rd round and 6th round draft picks!
Good analysis. The emotional choice is Pete, of course. But looking at Bregman's second half, from a strictly logical and analytic perspective, it makes sense to bring him in at third and move Vientos to first.
Projecting out, that's basically .275 25 HR 90 RBI, at least, on the corners, with the possibility of both guys going 30-plus with over 100 RBI. If the double play combination is Lindor and Acuna (who may indeed be ready), that's a heck of an infield.
It's really hard to see Pete at a $30 million AAV, though. And if Bregman is truly looking for a $200 million contract, that's tough to see, too.
Something like 5 years, $125 million -- maybe with some opt-outs or tail end options to sweeten the pot -- might get it done. Maybe a little more ($135-140 million) would do it. And I mean for either guy.
Looking at the options, Bregman has more tools, better pedigree and would probably come for less than Alonso. I was so disappointed with Alonso last year. 170+ Strikeouts and less than 100 runs scored, and less than 90 RBI as your clean up batter, is simply not productive. The year before wasn't any better. If it wasn't for the HR in Milwaukee, most fans would have wanted him long gone right now. Bregman's year offensively wasn't great either but he still posted a 4+ WAR and improves the defense (Vientos isn't great defensively). Allows for more flexibility as Andrew states well in this article. Both 30 years old, similar offensive stats, but one is clearly a better option bringing more intangibles that should result in more WINS!
I'd make a final offer to Pete that is fair and realistic to both parties, and if they leave it on the table so be it. As you show Michael, Bregman is a terrific option and would really strengthen the left side of the infield.
I know it’s not my money but I think Bregman might be too expensive. I think I’d rather Pete’s power bat in the lineup for the next 4 years. I’ll be happy with either though
So well said as usual Michael!