The Alex Bregman vs. Pete Alonso debate
Should the Mets bring back a homegrown star, or is going all out for a marquee third baseman the better move? Plus, the Sean Manaea return is official.
What’s up with the Mets? 🍎
The Mets officially announced the signing of LHP Sean Manaea on a three-year deal The contract is worth $75 million - $23.25 million of which is reportedly deferred - and Manaea will automatically slot in as the team’s ace for the 2025 season
Rumor Mill 💨
The Yankees are high on both LHP Andrew Chafin and LHP Tim Hill as they look to upgrade their bullpen (NY Post)
INF Gleyber Torres turned down the Nationals because he didn’t want to play third base (NY Post)
RHP Nick Pivetta is drawing interest from the likes of the Red Sox and Blue Jays (NY Post)
The Padres could look to trade RHP Dylan Cease if they land free agent stud Roki Sasaki this winter (Heyman)
Is Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso the better fit for the Mets? ✍️
It is the hot topic that is currently dominating all of the Mets discussion boards right now.
And it is the biggest, most juiciest storyline involving the Mets as we get deeper and deeper into the offseason.
Should the New York Mets bring back Pete Alonso? Or is making a splash for Alex Bregman the better baseball move?
You can make a compelling argument for both outcomes. Therefore, I’m going to do a deep dive into the debate that has taken over Mets land.
Let’s start with Alonso.
There does appear to be strong interest in a reunion from both sides. That much is clear. However, the stumbling block does seem to be the contract terms. The Mets aren’t going to overpay for a 30+ player under Steve Cohen and David Stearns. They will commit major dollars to the right player, as they did with superstar slugger Juan Soto.
It might be different with Alonso, however.
After all, the four-time All-Star is entering his age-30 season and pure power hitters historically don’t age all that well. He’s an average first baseman at best, his strikeout rate has risen in each of the last two years, and he’s been a one-dimensional player for more than a hot minute now.
Of course, on the flip side of all of that, Alonso did come up with monster hit after monster hit when it mattered the most in the playoffs after a year-long struggle hitting in the clutch (He has a .911 OPS with runners in scoring position in his career, by the way). He enjoyed a stellar postseason, reminding everyone of just how dangerous a hitter he can be when he’s right. Alonso’s ability to deliver when it really counted was a major driving force behind the Mets’ magical run all the way to the NLCS, as he single-handedly got the Mets past the Brewers and into the Division Series with one ninth inning swing in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Brewers.
He has also managed to stay relatively healthy throughout the first six years of his career, playing in at least 152 games in all five of his 162-game seasons, and 57 of the 60 games during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He has played in 846 of the team’s 870 total games since he came to the Major Leagues in 2019 (97%).
In addition, there is only one player in Major League Baseball to hit more home runs since 2019, which is the year Alonso came to the big leagues, and that is Aaron Judge.
There is also the emotional side with Alonso.
He’s a homegrown Met, one absolutely adored by fans in Queens. He’s done nothing but rake since making his debut in The Show, and he’s on pace to finish up as the best power hitter in franchise history while on a Hall of Fame trajectory. Alonso wears his heart on his sleeve, he connects with the fans and he knows what it means to put on that uniform every single day. He can also electrify Citi Field like no other player can (maybe that will change with Juan Soto now in town).
Alonso deserves to be a forever Met. Period.
However, with all of that said, there is no getting away from the fact that, once you take emotion and feel out of the equation, Alex Bregman is a better fit based on the statistics and metrics.
Bregman would make the Mets a fundamentally better baseball team. He just would, and that’s being fair. And it isn’t even close.
First and foremost, Bregman is an accomplished third baseman with a four- or five-tool set. He can hit for power, he can hit for average, and he historically gets on base at a high clip (his OBP did drop to .315 last season, 51 points below his career average). He hit .260/.315/.453/.768 with 26 home runs, 30 doubles, and 75 RBIs in 2024. So, although you would be losing Alonso’s power, you would be gaining a player in Bregman who would not only offer comparable slugging production but also a lot more patience, discipline, and consistency in the box.
Furthermore, Bregman is a Gold Glove winner, and his defense would automatically make that Mets infield so much better defensively. By signing Bregman, Mark Vientos would move over to first base and/or moonlight as the club’s designated hitter.
So, by signing Bregman, you are almost getting two players for the price of one.
Now, it’s hard to argue against Bregman’s best days probably being behind him, which is a similar case to be made for Alonso. Bregman has produced an OPS+ of 122 over his last five seasons, compared to a 144 OPS+ in his first four. Still great, but not what it was.
Meanwhile, Alonso produced a 144 OPS+ during his first four seasons, and a 123 OPS+ over his last two. Again, still great, but not what it was.
(league average is a 100 OPS)
You also can’t overstate how important the intangibles are with Bregman. The two-time All-Star has won two World Series titles with the Astros. He oozes championship pedigree and knows what it takes to win and to get the job done at the highest level and on the biggest stage.
And, when you envision a top of the order featuring Soto, Bregman, Francisco Lindor, and Vientos, then that’s a lineup that can certainly compete for a championship over the course of multiple years.
Bregman would be pricey, of course. He is looking for a $200 million contract in free agency, according to multiple reports. But signing Bregman would open up the possibility for the club to pursue another young superstar in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. next winter.
Make no mistake - saying goodbye to Alonso would be incredibly tough, especially when you consider that he’s done more than enough to earn the chance to be a forever Met. He also doesn’t deserve to be lowballed. Plus, Alonso could probably still offer anywhere between 25-35 homers a year in a DH role as he gets older, and that’s still incredibly valuable. You can’t downplay his winning personality and what he means to the franchise, either. But on the opposite side of that, you could argue that there is more of a logjam with Alonso in the lineup and giving big dollars to a 30-year-old power hitter who doesn’t offer that much value outside of that one asset just isn’t prudent.
Given the market is small for Alonso - the fact that teams would have to give up a pick in order to sign the masher doesn’t help - maybe the Mets could get something done with their homegrown star at a price they think is reasonable. There could even be a world in which the Mets sign both Bregman and Alonso if the latter takes a significant hometown discount. That scenario seems incredibly unlikely, however.
No matter how this plays out, the Mets are now in the winning business and not in the sentiment business and David Stearns is going to be as transactional as possible about this. Whether it’s Alonso or Bregman or someone else, that’s his primary task.
Around the League 🚩
The Diamondbacks signed free agent ace RHP Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210 million deal with an opt-out after two-years (New York Post)
OF Teoscar Hernández will be returning to LA after agreeing to terms on a three-year, $66 million contract with the Dodgers (ESPN)
Former Yankee infielder Gleyber Torres has a new home after signing a one-year, $15 million deal with the Tigers (ESPN)
Dave Kaval, president of the Athletics, announced on Friday that he would be resigning from the role after eight years
Boras is obviously playing a major role in the Alonso negotiations. I’d like to think that Cohen/Stearns would offer a fair deal to Alonso that is loaded with incentives such that he’d have a fantastic payday, with performance. Boras is holding out for guaranteed money. Unfortunately, Boras is also Bergman’s agent too, so sadly, he has a ton of leverage. I hope the Mets get one of them signed in time for a normal spring training. A late signing does no good to anyone except for Boras.
I like the new three year $90 million offer being floated will opt outs each year. If Pete has a monster year he could move on. Higher AAV and less years is a David Stearns special. Bregman would be great but it would be a long commitment into his declining years. Look at the Tigers choking on Javy Baez’s contract and thinking about releasing him with three years and $75 million still on the table. Long term contracts have long been the death of baseball and it is critical to get enough years in before the decline. Still wondering what Soto will be like at 33, half way through his contract, let alone as he ages from there. Even generational talents start to decline on the other side of 30. Since they no longer pay for Verlander, Scherzer, McCann, Narvaez and Houser, they have those dollars to spend if they wish to do so. Not sure how they would sign both Alonso and Bregman without giving them comparable salaries for too many years. But since it’s not my money, just get it done and give us some championships.