If you have some worries about the makeup of this roster heading into 2025, you aren't alone. Plus, the Mets reveal that they will have a new road jersey for the 2025 season...
A tale about power bats in the lineup, and not one mention of Francisco Alvarez and where he fits in this year. Whatever they do player-wise, I think his bat may be the deciding point of a successful season for the team
Hi Harvey, thanks for taking the time to read and comment. I wouldn’t call it a tale at all. It was more mentioning that they need another bat or two, regardless of who’s in the lineup already. It goes without saying that Francisco Alvarez is going to need a big year, as will the likes of Brandon Nimmo, and that has been covered in other newsletters. The point of what I was saying is that they need another big bat anyway. I’m sure there will be room for a Francisco Alvarez specific newsletter down the road, but this wasn’t the time for that
In my estimation Harper and Goldschmidt are the two best comps for fair market contact comparisons.
Olsen and Freeman are arguably under paid for respective performance.
Although pay for 1B performance has trended downward there are intangibles that come with Pete as a homegrown talent who is much more charismatic than the comparable players who all changed teams for compensation. Heck Harper is one of the least likable players in the sport.
Pete has managed to perform almost home run for home run with the marque power hitter in baseball playing across town. He even took his rookie HR record from him and out performed him not only on the playoff stage but at the derby as a personality.
He is a motivational teammate, a walking slogan making machine and one of the most gregarious and larger than life personalities the Mets have had in years.
Below are my comps with contract comparisons
Comps
________________________________________
P Goldschmidt : current age 36
(contract signed 2019’/ age 31)
24’. 1.3 WAR
Contract 6/156 ( WAR 23.1/ 3.8 yr)
Comp from age 30 on 7/182 (AAV 26)
ADJ for inflation 5% yr x 5 (AAV 33.2)
25’ salary 12.5
_________________________________________
B Harper : current age 32
(contract signed 2019’ / age 26)
24’. 4.8 WAR
Contract to date 6/146 ( WAR 23.3/ 3.8yr)
Comp from age 30 on 9/230 (AAV 25.5)
ADJ for Inflation 5% yr x 5 (AAV 32.5)
_________________________________________
M Olson : current age : 30
(contract signed 2022’ / age 28)
24’ performance 3.8 WAR
Contract to date 3/58 ( WAR 14.5 / 4.6 yr)
Comp from age 30 on 7/152 (AAV 22)
ADJ for inflation 5% yr x 2 (AAV 24.25)
_________________________________________
F Freeman : current age : 34
(contract signed 2022’ / age 32)
24’ performance : 4.7 WAR
Contract to date 3/81 (WAR 17.4 / 5.5yr)
Comp from age 32 on 6/162
age 30 on 8/216 (AAV 27)
ADJ for inflation 5% x 2 (AAV 29.75)
_________________________________________
P Alonso : current age 30
24’ performance 2.6 WAR
Average season 3.8 WAR high of 5.5
Best comps are Harper and Goldschmidt contracts
Based on blended contract length and adjusted AAV of those two players then Pete deserves a 7 / 233 contract (33 AAV)
Adjustments for defense as 3 of 4 first basemen have won a GG and Harper being a superior athlete. Adjustment for the devaluation of 1B contracts
- 5million a year = AAV 28
Alonso contract suggestions should be
3yr/34 102 yr 1 opt out
4yr/32 128 yr 2 opt out
5yr/30 150
6yr/29 174
7yr/28 196
_________________________________________
Has been durable and the face of the franchise in the lean years. Think how much pressure he took off Lindor after signing the immense contract.
The NL has DH now so without injury Pete gets 500 home runs in 7th year of contract as a career Met.
At 28 million a year he is ;
6 million /yr cheaper than Lindor
12 million /yr cheaper than Judge
21-25 million /yr cheaper than Soto
It is a crime of Wilpon like misjudgment if they let him walk……
P.S
I am available to provide insightful opinion and analysis to Just Mets, the Boras corporation or my favorite organization and owner in the world Uncle Stevie Cohen.
Oh BTW sign J Flaherty to a 4/25 100 mil contract. If necessary offer a player out after 2nd year. He would be an excellent right handed compliment to Sean Manea at the top of our rotation. Based on expected performance and durability.
Good column. Lots of hope/wishful thinking on this team. Every year, some players perform better than expected, some worse, and some as expected. Last year a lot of players, especially pitchers, performed better than expected. May very well not happen again. Don't be surprised in they're a .500 team in '25.
Totally agree with Harvey on Alvy. If he really gets it in gear and delivers at the plate across 135 games or so, we could really be in business.
Mendy might have a trick or two up his sleeve with Luisangel Acuna, too. I wouldn't be shocked to see the young man get significant reps in centerfield, and if he hits at all, it's an upgrade, especially over Jose Siri.
But neither of those are quite enough. We need to get our corner infield positions sorted, and that means first base. It's either homecoming time for Pete or we need to sign (and it pains me to say this) Alex Bregman and move Mark over before Spring Training starts.
Emotionally, that would suck. The effect on the clubhouse is hard to estimate. But on paper, it should work.
Iglesias may not have a spot, but he's a glue guy and inspirational (and hit really well). This type of veteran influence is also needed. Is Soto a team guy? Unproven from his past performance. More relief pitchers.
The Mets desperately need another home run bat and an ace pitcher. Well, they did manage to play a lot of small ball last year, you still have to hit the ball out of the park and pictures will pitch around Juan Soto without a solid home run back behind him. I’d still like them to make a deal with the Mariners for Luis Castillo as he is under control for three more years at a reasonable price.
A tale about power bats in the lineup, and not one mention of Francisco Alvarez and where he fits in this year. Whatever they do player-wise, I think his bat may be the deciding point of a successful season for the team
Hi Harvey, thanks for taking the time to read and comment. I wouldn’t call it a tale at all. It was more mentioning that they need another bat or two, regardless of who’s in the lineup already. It goes without saying that Francisco Alvarez is going to need a big year, as will the likes of Brandon Nimmo, and that has been covered in other newsletters. The point of what I was saying is that they need another big bat anyway. I’m sure there will be room for a Francisco Alvarez specific newsletter down the road, but this wasn’t the time for that
That's a very big if.
Pete Alonso contract comparison points.
In my estimation Harper and Goldschmidt are the two best comps for fair market contact comparisons.
Olsen and Freeman are arguably under paid for respective performance.
Although pay for 1B performance has trended downward there are intangibles that come with Pete as a homegrown talent who is much more charismatic than the comparable players who all changed teams for compensation. Heck Harper is one of the least likable players in the sport.
Pete has managed to perform almost home run for home run with the marque power hitter in baseball playing across town. He even took his rookie HR record from him and out performed him not only on the playoff stage but at the derby as a personality.
He is a motivational teammate, a walking slogan making machine and one of the most gregarious and larger than life personalities the Mets have had in years.
Below are my comps with contract comparisons
Comps
________________________________________
P Goldschmidt : current age 36
(contract signed 2019’/ age 31)
24’. 1.3 WAR
Contract 6/156 ( WAR 23.1/ 3.8 yr)
Comp from age 30 on 7/182 (AAV 26)
ADJ for inflation 5% yr x 5 (AAV 33.2)
25’ salary 12.5
_________________________________________
B Harper : current age 32
(contract signed 2019’ / age 26)
24’. 4.8 WAR
Contract to date 6/146 ( WAR 23.3/ 3.8yr)
Comp from age 30 on 9/230 (AAV 25.5)
ADJ for Inflation 5% yr x 5 (AAV 32.5)
_________________________________________
M Olson : current age : 30
(contract signed 2022’ / age 28)
24’ performance 3.8 WAR
Contract to date 3/58 ( WAR 14.5 / 4.6 yr)
Comp from age 30 on 7/152 (AAV 22)
ADJ for inflation 5% yr x 2 (AAV 24.25)
_________________________________________
F Freeman : current age : 34
(contract signed 2022’ / age 32)
24’ performance : 4.7 WAR
Contract to date 3/81 (WAR 17.4 / 5.5yr)
Comp from age 32 on 6/162
age 30 on 8/216 (AAV 27)
ADJ for inflation 5% x 2 (AAV 29.75)
_________________________________________
P Alonso : current age 30
24’ performance 2.6 WAR
Average season 3.8 WAR high of 5.5
Best comps are Harper and Goldschmidt contracts
Based on blended contract length and adjusted AAV of those two players then Pete deserves a 7 / 233 contract (33 AAV)
Adjustments for defense as 3 of 4 first basemen have won a GG and Harper being a superior athlete. Adjustment for the devaluation of 1B contracts
- 5million a year = AAV 28
Alonso contract suggestions should be
3yr/34 102 yr 1 opt out
4yr/32 128 yr 2 opt out
5yr/30 150
6yr/29 174
7yr/28 196
_________________________________________
Has been durable and the face of the franchise in the lean years. Think how much pressure he took off Lindor after signing the immense contract.
The NL has DH now so without injury Pete gets 500 home runs in 7th year of contract as a career Met.
At 28 million a year he is ;
6 million /yr cheaper than Lindor
12 million /yr cheaper than Judge
21-25 million /yr cheaper than Soto
It is a crime of Wilpon like misjudgment if they let him walk……
P.S
I am available to provide insightful opinion and analysis to Just Mets, the Boras corporation or my favorite organization and owner in the world Uncle Stevie Cohen.
Oh BTW sign J Flaherty to a 4/25 100 mil contract. If necessary offer a player out after 2nd year. He would be an excellent right handed compliment to Sean Manea at the top of our rotation. Based on expected performance and durability.
Manea
Flaherty
Senga
Peterson
Montas
Holmes
Megill
Butto ( remind anyone else of Lugo?)
Blackburn
Canning
LGM!!!!!!!!
Kevin from Clark
Good column. Lots of hope/wishful thinking on this team. Every year, some players perform better than expected, some worse, and some as expected. Last year a lot of players, especially pitchers, performed better than expected. May very well not happen again. Don't be surprised in they're a .500 team in '25.
Totally agree with Harvey on Alvy. If he really gets it in gear and delivers at the plate across 135 games or so, we could really be in business.
Mendy might have a trick or two up his sleeve with Luisangel Acuna, too. I wouldn't be shocked to see the young man get significant reps in centerfield, and if he hits at all, it's an upgrade, especially over Jose Siri.
But neither of those are quite enough. We need to get our corner infield positions sorted, and that means first base. It's either homecoming time for Pete or we need to sign (and it pains me to say this) Alex Bregman and move Mark over before Spring Training starts.
Emotionally, that would suck. The effect on the clubhouse is hard to estimate. But on paper, it should work.
Iglesias may not have a spot, but he's a glue guy and inspirational (and hit really well). This type of veteran influence is also needed. Is Soto a team guy? Unproven from his past performance. More relief pitchers.
The Mets desperately need another home run bat and an ace pitcher. Well, they did manage to play a lot of small ball last year, you still have to hit the ball out of the park and pictures will pitch around Juan Soto without a solid home run back behind him. I’d still like them to make a deal with the Mariners for Luis Castillo as he is under control for three more years at a reasonable price.
Spot on. I don’t think we’re arm chair quarterbacking this, it’s pretty obvious. All of the missing pieces you mentioned are real.
Plenty of time to get another bat, reliever, and even a starter. The first two needed for sure! LGM!
I still think a Pete reunion makes too much sense for both sides. I agree we still need another bat and I’m confident Stearns knows this as well 🤞