It is okay to have some concerns about this Mets team
If you have some worries about the makeup of this roster heading into 2025, you aren't alone. Plus, the Mets reveal that they will have a new road jersey for the 2025 season...
What’s up with the Mets? 🍎
The Mets announced that they will be unveiling a new road jersey for the 2025 season at Mets’ Amazin Day at Citi Field on Saturday
The lineup for Mets’ Amazin Day is stacked, with the likes of Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Mike Piazza, Carlos Mendoza and Mookie Wilson all set to be in attendance (Full Lineup)
OF Jesse Winker, speaking on a Zoom call with reporters on Wednesday, said that he would be comfortable playing first base in 2025 if asked
Baseball America revealed its new Top 100 prospects list, with Mets prospects Jett Williams (No. 58), Brandon Sproat (No. 61), Jesus Baez (No. 92) and Nolan McLean (No. 99) all making the cut (Full BA 100 list)
Rumor Mill 💨
The Dodgers are shopping some of their surplus pitching after another blockbuster offseason, including RHP Ryan Brasier (USA Today)
The Cubs are still seeking bullpen help with a slew of notable relievers still available on the open market (The Athletic)
The Padres have held discussions with the Twins about acquiring veteran catcher Christian Vásquez (The Athletic)
Veteran right-handed reliever Carlos Estévez remains deep in discussion with the Reds (USA Today)
Why it is okay to have some concerns about this Mets team… ✍️
We’ve reached that dead point of the baseball offseason where not a whole lot is going on.
Now that the Baseball Hall of Fame inductees have been announced, there won’t be a whole lot of juicy news to digest until spring training camps open in a few weeks.
Of course, there are still some notable free agents stranded out in the baseball wilderness, including Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman. Hot Stove season is clearly trying to give us all some meaningful content for as long as possible.
But, outside of that, we’re very much entrenched in a quiet period and today seems as good a day as any to do a deep dive into the Mets roster as currently constituted.
And, I’m here to tell you that, if like me, you do have some concerns about this team right now, then that’s perfectly fine.
Because, as of writing this, and being fully aware that more moves could be made in the buildup to, and during, spring training, there is a compelling argument to be made that this team isn’t all that much improved from last year.
Yes, signing Juan Soto automatically makes the lineup better, especially if the superstar slugger can continue on his current Hall of Fame trajectory and carve out another monster year. Bringing back Jesse Winker was also key and, if used in the right spots, the veteran can be a significant contributor in Queens once again. But, outside of those two additions, there are a slew of question marks as it pertains to the current makeup of this roster.
If we are to operate under the assumption that Pete Alonso is not coming back, then there is without doubt a real need for another big bat. They need a legitimate power hitter in that lineup to offer protection to Soto - that which he has stated publicly he wants - as well as to lengthen and deepen the lineup. Heck, I felt that even with bringing back Alonso, another middle-of-the-order bat would have been required. Winker is a nice piece, but he’s hardly going to be able to carry the entire offense on his back for an entire season. Plus, what are they going to get out of Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil production-wise? Will the kids be able to step up and contribute? And how much offense can they really expect out of the defense-first tandem of Tyrone Taylor and José Siri?
Then there’s the million-dollar question hovering over the infield. If the Alonso era is truly over, then Mark Vientos will shift over to first base. Fine. But it is important to note that Vientos has hardly played first and isn’t exactly a Gold Glove defender to begin with. I’m also not comfortable going into the year with a three-man experiment at third base. We’ve seen enough from Brett Baty to be confident that he’s probably not the answer. Ronny Mauricio is coming off an ACL tear and hasn’t played baseball in over a year. And then they’re going to risk stunting the development of Luisangel Acuña by moving him away from second base to try and play third?
That just doesn’t seem smart to me.
Plus, as a by-product of those moves, they’re then stuck with McNeil and a bevy of rotating depth at second, and who knows what they’re going to get out of the veteran given his considerable struggles over the past couple of years.
In other words, Soto and Lindor are going to need more help.
As elite as that two-headed monster is, they can’t carry this team to the postseason on their own.
We haven’t even covered the pitching yet, either.
Now, it is important to preface what I’m about to say with the statement that president of baseball operations David Stearns has earned the benefit of the doubt. He knows what he’s doing, and he proved that with how he built the rotation in 2024. But, with that said, there is probably a limit on how many times you can hit a home run with a reclamation project. Sean Manaea and Luis Severino both proved to be grand slams last year, and there is no reason to believe that Manaea won’t continue to pitch like an ace in 2025. But, there are reasons to doubt that Frankie Montas can be this year’s Manaea or Severino, while the Clay Holmes starter experiment has just as much chance to fail as it does to succeed. Kodai Senga is also no sure-thing after his injury-ravaged 2024 season.
Again, it is worth stressing that Stearns is a baseball savant and he has the innate ability to spot value where others can’t. However, expecting every individual in the rotation and the bullpen to outperform the back of their baseball cards for an entire 162-game regular season is a risky strategy. More reinforcements are needed, including a swing-and-miss right-handed reliever. If the Padres are willing to trade Dylan Cease, who has ace-like stuff, then the Mets should be all in on the RHP.
We also need to address the small elephant in the room.
A hell of a lot of almost mythical things conspired to help the Mets embark on a truly magical run in 2024. They began the year as one of the worst teams in baseball for a reason, before, to their credit, turning it around and reaching the NLCS. However, it is hard to bottle that kind of magic and previous good luck charms like Grimace may not be so lucky for the Mets in 2025. In short, the kind of feel-good vibes and almost mystical powers that helped power this team to the most unlikeliest of runs will probably not be there in 2025.
That’s just the reality of baseball. Things are ever-changing in this game we all love.
Of course, I will understand if some of you are reading this and shaking your head in disbelief at how negative I’m coming across this morning. I get it. And I’m not trying to be ‘that guy’ by raining on the Mets’ parade before even pitchers and catchers have reported. And, as I pointed out at the top, more moves may well happen between now and the start of spring training, making these concerns moot.
It is also worth noting that just because the Mets signed Soto to a record-breaking deal this offseason, it doesn’t mean that they need to win the World Series in 2025. They have Soto for the long run, and also have the ability and the means to add other pieces around him in order to become a perennial World Series contender. I wouldn’t say not winning it all in 2025 would constitute the biggest disappointment of all time.
Taking a backward step would be majorly disappointing, however, and it is hard right now to be uber-confident that the Mets will be a better team in 2025.
There is still a lot of work to be done to ensure that this team can go toe-to-toe with the incredibly talented and loaded Dodgers in a playoff series.
So, until then, it is okay to have some worries about this Mets team as it is currently constituted while we wait for the glory days of spring training to arrive.
Around the League 🚩
The Cubs and veteran infielder Jon Berti are in agreement on a one-year, $2 million deal (FanSided)
Right-handed reliever Paul Sewald is on his way to Cleveland after agreeing to terms on a one-year, $7 million contract with the Guardians (ESPN)
Former All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson signed a minor league deal with the Angels (USA Today)
Sluggball, which has been framed as baseball’s version of Topgolf, will debut in May in the first of at least six events (USA Today)
A tale about power bats in the lineup, and not one mention of Francisco Alvarez and where he fits in this year. Whatever they do player-wise, I think his bat may be the deciding point of a successful season for the team
Pete Alonso contract comparison points.
In my estimation Harper and Goldschmidt are the two best comps for fair market contact comparisons.
Olsen and Freeman are arguably under paid for respective performance.
Although pay for 1B performance has trended downward there are intangibles that come with Pete as a homegrown talent who is much more charismatic than the comparable players who all changed teams for compensation. Heck Harper is one of the least likable players in the sport.
Pete has managed to perform almost home run for home run with the marque power hitter in baseball playing across town. He even took his rookie HR record from him and out performed him not only on the playoff stage but at the derby as a personality.
He is a motivational teammate, a walking slogan making machine and one of the most gregarious and larger than life personalities the Mets have had in years.
Below are my comps with contract comparisons
Comps
________________________________________
P Goldschmidt : current age 36
(contract signed 2019’/ age 31)
24’. 1.3 WAR
Contract 6/156 ( WAR 23.1/ 3.8 yr)
Comp from age 30 on 7/182 (AAV 26)
ADJ for inflation 5% yr x 5 (AAV 33.2)
25’ salary 12.5
_________________________________________
B Harper : current age 32
(contract signed 2019’ / age 26)
24’. 4.8 WAR
Contract to date 6/146 ( WAR 23.3/ 3.8yr)
Comp from age 30 on 9/230 (AAV 25.5)
ADJ for Inflation 5% yr x 5 (AAV 32.5)
_________________________________________
M Olson : current age : 30
(contract signed 2022’ / age 28)
24’ performance 3.8 WAR
Contract to date 3/58 ( WAR 14.5 / 4.6 yr)
Comp from age 30 on 7/152 (AAV 22)
ADJ for inflation 5% yr x 2 (AAV 24.25)
_________________________________________
F Freeman : current age : 34
(contract signed 2022’ / age 32)
24’ performance : 4.7 WAR
Contract to date 3/81 (WAR 17.4 / 5.5yr)
Comp from age 32 on 6/162
age 30 on 8/216 (AAV 27)
ADJ for inflation 5% x 2 (AAV 29.75)
_________________________________________
P Alonso : current age 30
24’ performance 2.6 WAR
Average season 3.8 WAR high of 5.5
Best comps are Harper and Goldschmidt contracts
Based on blended contract length and adjusted AAV of those two players then Pete deserves a 7 / 233 contract (33 AAV)
Adjustments for defense as 3 of 4 first basemen have won a GG and Harper being a superior athlete. Adjustment for the devaluation of 1B contracts
- 5million a year = AAV 28
Alonso contract suggestions should be
3yr/34 102 yr 1 opt out
4yr/32 128 yr 2 opt out
5yr/30 150
6yr/29 174
7yr/28 196
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Has been durable and the face of the franchise in the lean years. Think how much pressure he took off Lindor after signing the immense contract.
The NL has DH now so without injury Pete gets 500 home runs in 7th year of contract as a career Met.
At 28 million a year he is ;
6 million /yr cheaper than Lindor
12 million /yr cheaper than Judge
21-25 million /yr cheaper than Soto
It is a crime of Wilpon like misjudgment if they let him walk……
P.S
I am available to provide insightful opinion and analysis to Just Mets, the Boras corporation or my favorite organization and owner in the world Uncle Stevie Cohen.
Oh BTW sign J Flaherty to a 4/25 100 mil contract. If necessary offer a player out after 2nd year. He would be an excellent right handed compliment to Sean Manea at the top of our rotation. Based on expected performance and durability.
Manea
Flaherty
Senga
Peterson
Montas
Holmes
Megill
Butto ( remind anyone else of Lugo?)
Blackburn
Canning
LGM!!!!!!!!
Kevin from Clark