It all comes down to this
There's just one last chance to change the ending of a story this team has told multiple times before
What’s up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets responded to Friday’s flop with a strong Saturday win to keep their playoff hopes alive, shutting out the Marlins 5-0 (box)
RHP Clay Holmes saved his best performance of the season for last, allowing just one hit and no runs across six innings of work
1B Pete Alonso had a big day, delivering two of the Mets’ five runs with an RBI double and a solo homer
2B Jeff McNeil snapped his recent skid with a big two-out RBI double in the sixth to give the Mets an insurance run
The bullpen was excellent behind Holmes, with LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Tyler Rogers, and RHP Edwin Diaz combining for three scoreless innings in relief
The Mets can claim a playoff spot today with a win and a Reds loss
Postgame Livestream Tonight 🚨
Following the results of this afternoon’s Game 162 between the Mets and Marlins, we will be hosting a live edition of The Just Mets Podcast!
Rich MacLeod and Andrew Claudio will react to the Mets clinching or being eliminated from the postseason on the final day, and will respond to fan questions in the live chat.
Roster Moves 📰
RHP Kevin Herget was designated for assignment
LHP Richard Lovelady was outrighted to Syracuse
RHP Dylan Ross had his contract selected from Syracuse
OF Jared Young was recalled from Syracuse
CF Jose Siri was outrighted to Syracuse
Injury Updates 🏥
3B Brett Baty (right oblique strain) was placed on the 10-day IL
Playoff Race 🏁
The Reds beat the Brewers again on Saturday, 7-4.
With their win, the Mets and Reds remain technically tied for the final Wild Card spot. Since Cincinnati owns the tiebreaker, the Mets need to win today and need the Reds to lose.
If the Reds win their game today, the Mets will be eliminated from the playoffs.
Per Fangraphs, the Mets have just a 33.7% chance of making the playoffs, while the Reds now have a 66.3% chance of securing a postseason berth.
Play(er) of the Game ⭐️
Everybody say, “Thank you, Clay!”
I know this section is typically reserved for highlighting significant or game-changing plays from the previous night’s action — congrats again to Jeff on his RBI double to put us up 3-0 — but yesterday was mostly about one guy: Clay Holmes. I felt compelled to give him his well-deserved flowers.
In his final start of the season, the first-year starter delivered his best outing since he signed his contract. As indicated by the GIF choice above, it wasn’t a particularly flashy outing (two strikeouts against 11 ground-ball outs), but on a night where the team needed his absolute best, Holmes made sure he didn’t disappoint.
Despite some ups and downs throughout the year, including a rough July in which he posted a near-5.00 ERA and a far less impressive second-half than his first, Holmes’s final season line is more than acceptable for a first-time starter, and nearly identical to his per-162 line as a full-time reliever:
Holmes’s per-162 thru 2024: 73 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 78 K (9.6 K/9), 1.30 WHIP, 113 ERA+
Holmes in 2025: 12-8, 165.2 IP, 3.53 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 129 K (7.0 K/9), 1.30 WHIP, 117 ERA+
Indeed, in nearly 100 more innings than his normal workload, this player delivered virtually no regression in overall performance. You can point to a reduced K rate, a slightly higher walk rate, or a reduced groundball rate as signs of decline in a new role — I disagree. I think they’re the result of adjustments made to serve said role, and with another camp and spring training under his belt, I think we’ll see an even more fully-formed version of Starter Clay Holmes next season.
Today’s Game 🗓️
Match-up: Mets (83-78) at Marlins (78-83)
Where: loanDepot Park - Miami, FL
Starters: LHP Sean Manaea (2-4, 5.80 ERA) vs. RHP Edward Cabrera (7-7, 3.66 ERA)
When: 3:10 PM EDT
Where to Watch: SNY | MLBN (Out-of-market only)
#ChangeTheEnding ✍️
We’ve seen literally all of this before.
On September 29, 2007, the Mets were on the tail end of the worst September collapse in MLB history. Exuding confidence (and, apparently, “boredom”) with a seven-game lead and only 17 games to play, the Mets infamously lost 12 of those 17 and missed the postseason in humiliating fashion.
In the most important game of his career, franchise hero John Maine delivered a career-defining masterpiece that staved off playoff elimination for one more day, striking out 14 batters over 7 ⅔ innings.
Their opponent? The Marlins, who won the next day 8-1, hammering eventual Hall of Fame lefty Tom Glavine and stunningly ending the Mets’ season.
Then, on September 27, 2008, the Mets were sliding again. For the second time in as many years, they found themselves on the verge of blowing a late-season lead, this time having let a 3.5-game lead slip away with just 17 left to play.
In another heroic Game 161 effort to save their season, Johan Santana threw a complete game three-hit shutout, striking out nine on a torn meniscus. It was his debut season with the team.
That game’s opponent? The Marlins, who won the next day 4-2, beating lefty Óliver Pérez and ending the Mets’ season prematurely again.
And now, nearly two decades later, the Mets find themselves in terrifyingly familiar territory.
The parallels between Holmes’s performance yesterday and the Maine/Santana games of yore are striking: same opponent, same playoff situation, facing a comparable collapse, a season hanging in the balance. His one-hit shutout line matches up with Maine’s two-hitter and Santana’s three (though both of the latter had far more strikeout success). It’s enough coincidence to give well-acquainted fans nightmares — and likely already has.
And with a struggling Sean Manaea slated to start today’s winner-take-all contest, I can imagine those nightmares were particularly potent last night for some of us.
Heading into the most important game of his career since Game 6 of last year’s NLCS, Manaea takes the pill in an attempt to preserve New York’s playoff hopes. The Reds kick off their season-ending matchup against Freddy Peralta in Milwaukee at the same time, so the pressure will be as high as it’s ever been for Manaea and Co. to deliver a winning effort. There will be constant scoreboard watching.
Fans who are concerned about Manaea taking the hill in such a crucial game should be forgiven: his career track record in high-leverage situations is less than stellar, and his stat line from that series-ending Game 6 last year isn’t the best recent demonstration of clutch ability. Further, despite a momentary reset after a conversation with his skipper a couple of weeks ago, Manaea looked as shaky in his last two appearances as he has all season.
Full transparency: heading into this game, I’m not my normally optimistic self.
However, in an attempt to tap into whatever delusion I have left, I’d also like to remind you all of another game with nearly-equivalent stakes from a slightly older time…against a relevant, familiar opponent.
Just as the games above had their parallels, so did Game 163 in 1999 against - that’s right - the Cincinnati Reds.
With a Wild Card spot hanging in the balance, legendary lefty Al Leiter took the mound and led the Mets to a 5-0 victory and a 1999 playoff berth with a two-hit complete game shutout.
(No, the stakes aren’t exactly the same, as the Mets’ fate is no longer in their own hands, and any actual defeat of the Reds will come at the hands of the Brewers today — but you get my point. Manaea needs to shove.)
Interestingly, the 1999 season was Leiter’s 10th season in MLB; 2025 is Manaea’s. Out of curiosity, I wanted to see how their careers compared across that time span:
Manaea (2016-2025): 14.6 bWAR, 79-66, 242 G, 209 GS, 1243.1 IP, 4.09 ERA, 99 ERA+, 1181 K-345 BB (22.8% K-6.6% BB), 4.03 FIP, 1.202 WHIP
Leiter (1987-1996): 13.8 bWAR, 49-44, 146 G, 116 GS, 737.1 IP, 3.94 ERA, 111 ERA+, 639 K-428 BB (19.8% K-13.3% BB), 4.14 FIP, 1.453 WHIP
Huh…these are shockingly similar.
Additionally, leaning further into whatever positivity I can muster…it’s not like 1999 was a banner year for Leiter: he went .500 in the W-L column and posted a 4.23 ERA with a 105 ERA+. Yes, Manaea’s faring far worse in 2025 (2-4, 5.40 ERA, 70 ERA+) than Leiter did in 1999…but the Marlins also haven’t seen him yet this season. Who knows, maybe that leads to a performance boost at least his first time through the order.
(Pardon my grasping, there are straws everywhere.)
All of the above isn’t to try to suggest that Manaea is actually just the next Al Leiter. What I’m trying to get at, however haphazardly, is that incredible, season-saving performances can come from anywhere in your rotation, be it a guy like Maine or Santana who’s had a career-best year, or a guy like Leiter who’s having a pretty pedestrian one on paper.
Today, it needs to be Manaea’s turn.
Obviously, the Mets need to win today because of the playoff implications. But it seems there’s also a karmic chapter that needs to be rewritten with a win to help fully reset this franchise. Something sinister lingers within Citi Field’s walls, forcing struggling lefties to start Game 162s that come with playoff elimination stakes in seasons of promise that have resulted in collapse.
Sure, the Reds could win today, and a win won’t really mean anything for the Mets at all. That shouldn’t even be on this team’s radar. To continue this unbelievably specific cycle of losing they’ve found themselves mired in would be a lot of salt to pour in a freshly-opened but familiar wound.
Today is an incredibly important day for this team. They need to do literally everything they can to rewrite the story they’ve been telling for decades.
Here we go — ya gotta believe.
Around the League 🚩
The Cleveland Guardians officially punched their postseason ticket in a thrilling win on a walk-off HBP after rookie C.J. Kayfus was plunked with a fastball; with a win or a Tigers loss today, Cleveland would claim the AL Central crown
Speaking of the Tigers, they also clinched a postseason berth with their 2-1 win over Boston; it was just Detroit’s second win in their last 11 games, yet they can still win the AL Central with a win today
Despite their loss to the Reds, the Brewers claimed the NL’s No.1 seed with the Phillies’ loss to the Twins yesterday; they will maintain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs
With a division title on the line, Toronto’s rookie phenom Trey Yesavage delivered a scoreless five-inning gem; with a win today, the Blue Jays would be AL East champions
Michael Busch’s two-homer, four-hit day powered the Cubs to a big win over the Pirates, cementing their place as hosts of their National League Wild Card series
The Astros’ eight-season postseason streak comes to an end in 2025 at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels
Seven players reached the 30-30 mark this season, the most in a single season in MLB history; two of them are Mets (MLB)
Holmes turned out to be a terrific value signing by Stearns. People who complain about him don’t know what $13m/yr gets you nowadays. He showed us something yesterday. Its encouraging for next season 👍
Simple equation. Mets must win, Reds must lose. As Sinatra sang, it's all or nothing at all.