Don't count on the Mets to fall for Scott Boras' tactics

The free agent market is starting to heat up again after the holiday season. Plus, trying to analyze Scott Boras' game plan in the Pete Alonso negotiations.

What’s up with the Mets? 🍎

• The Mets remain the “most likely scenario” for Pete Alonso in free agency despite the standoff (New York Post)

• The contract length appears to be the biggest gap to bridge in the Mets/Alonso negotiations (New York Post)

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Rumor Mill 💨

• The Angels have shown some interest in Pete Alonso in free agency, though a player like Anthony Santander appears more realistic (New York Post)

• The Tigers are reportedly “all-in” on free agent 3B Alex Bregman (Detroit Free Press)

• RHP Max Scherzer is fielding offers from four different teams and is seeing his market heat up (New York Post)

• The Orioles and free agent RHP Jack Flaherty are showing mutual interest in a reunion after the right-hander’s bounce back season in Detroit and Los Angeles (The Athletic)

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I’m not buying what Scott Boras is trying to sell right now… ✍️

Over a three-day span just before the holidays, the first base market in baseball’s free agency flipped on its head as nearly every viable option was signed or traded over those 72 hours.

After Christian Walker signed a three-year, $60 million deal with the Astros, the first base contingency plans flew off the shelves in quick order. Over the next few days, the Walker signing was followed up by Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana signing one-year contracts, while Josh Naylor and Nathaniel Lowe were dealt in a pair of trades.

In those three days, the Astros, Yankees, Dbacks, Guardians, and Nationals all sured up their first base spots, leaving the obvious remaining suitors for Pete Alonso incredibly scarce.

For a while now, it’s seemed almost too obvious that Alonso returning to the Mets was the best fit and likeliest of scenarios for the 30-year-old free agent, and that three-day stretch of the offseason only emphasized that fact. That being said, it’s now been nearly two weeks since those players came off the board, and yet we still don’t seem to be any closer to there being a resolution to Alonso’s free agency.

So what is going on here, exactly?

Well, the simple answer can be summed up in two words: Scott Boras.

For many years, Boras has had a long track record of being the best and most ruthless sports agents in all of baseball. He has negotiated mega deals for some of the game’s most notable players over the decades and does remarkably well for his clients more often than not… though there is a bit more nuance to it than that.

That has always worked well for Boras when it comes to his sure-thing, superstar free agents like Alex Rodriguez or Juan Soto – who, as we all know, just signed the largest free agent contract in the history of professional sports with the Mets last month. When it comes to his B-tier free agents (or lower), however, things have been a lot more hit-or-miss for Boras when he’s dug his heels in.

In situations where his players haven’t insisted on returning to their hometown teams on slightly more friendly contracts, there have been many examples in recent years where Boras has overinflated or misinterpreted his clients’ value in the landscape of that given free agent market. We saw this as recently as last year with Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom had to settle for signing for less than they were looking for very late in free agency. It ultimately worked out for Snell, who parlayed his short-term deal into a five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers, but went far more catastrophically for Montgomery.

After settling for a one-year, $25 million contract (with a vesting option for 2025) at the end of last March, Montgomery had the worst season of his career. The situation was so bad for Montgomery that he soon after fired Boras as his agent, pitched to a 6.23 ERA over 25 regular season appearances, and was publicly bad-mouthed by Dbacks owner Ken Kendrick at the end of the 2024 season.

There have also been times further in the past where Boras’ stubbornness has gone against the best interests of his clients – the funky situation in 2014 where he waited until June of that season to settle on signings for Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew comes to the forefront of my mind.

To some extent, that appears to be what Boras is trying to do here again for Alonso. It’s become clear at this point that both Boras and Alonso both wildly overestimated the market that the veteran first baseman was going to have this winter. It was only a year ago that Alonso, prior to hiring Boras as his agent, reportedly turned down a seven-year, $158 million contract extension. This obviously implies that Alonso and his representation were clearly expecting to exceed that offer with the Mets or another team this winter – an offer that never did, and clearly never will come.

You might be asking, “after all of the obvious fits for Alonso outside of the Mets no longer became viable, why hasn’t Boras taken the best offer from New York while it’s still available?”

The answer is likely because Boras is trying to cover his own ass right now and desperately try to salvage this situation as best as he can. A year ago, Boras clearly sold Alonso on the idea that if he went with him, he could exceed that contract offer from the Mets. Now that it’s become evident that this won’t be the case, I do think there is an element here where Boras is trying to save face and pull a rabbit out of a hat here.

It’s manifested in the classic PR games that we’ve become accustomed to with Boras over the years, as we’re suddenly hearing reports that the Blue Jays and Giants – both of whom are not natural fits for Alonso, in my opinion – are now suddenly the potential other suitors here after all of the other obvious candidates came off the board. The Mets, in my eye, are clearly fighting back in a similar manner here as they’ve seemed to strategically leak out that they would be okay shifting Mark Vientos to first base and using internal options such as Brett Baty or Ronny Mauricio at third base. They’ve also dabbled in showing interest in Teoscar Hernandez (who has since re-signed with the Dodgers) and Alex Bregman – although the Bregman interest wouldn’t quite work as a negotiating tactic here because he, too, is represented by Scott Boras.

Ultimately, I do not see another obvious fit for Pete Alonso in free agency other than the Mets unless Boras/Alonso decide to settle for a one-year deal on a high salary elsewhere. If someone was going to offer Alonso that five-year deal (he can forget about six or seven), it would have happened already.

There is no mystery team hiding around the corner waiting to unfurl a mega offer for a 30-year-old Alonso in the final month of free agency, nor do I believe that the Blue Jays – who have yet to convince a single big name to sign with them and need to figure out what they’re doing with their own homegrown first baseman in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – or the Giants, who lost out on a pitcher in Corbin Burnes, are suddenly going to be realistic threats to sign him at this point.

Unless Alonso is so turned off by the way his free agency has gone, which may be the case, I still have a really hard time believing that he is going to sign anywhere else despite this thing dragging into 2025 and devolving into PR games through Jon Heyman.

Ultimately, unless the Mets are the ones who decide to pivot away, I still strongly believe that Alonso will be back in the orange and blue by Opening Day. And if there’s one thing I’m particularly confident in here, it’s that David Stearns and Steve Cohen are not going to fall for any of Boras’ tricks this time around.

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Around the League 🚩

• The White Sox officially acquired LHP Tyler Gilbert from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Aaron Combs