Did Francisco Álvarez just save the Mets season?!?

The Mets won a thrilling game at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night – their most important game of the 2025 season to date.

Courtesy of the New York Mets

What’s up with the Mets? ⚾️

• The Mets took the first game of their pivotal three-game series with the Cubs in a thriller, 9-7 (box)

• C Francisco Álvarez hit the most important homer of his career with a two-run blast (10) in the 8th inning that provided what would be the game-winning runs

• SS Francisco Lindor had a huge night, opening the game with a leadoff homer and driving in three runs; he is now one homer shy of his second 30-30 campaign

• CF Brandon Nimmo delivered one of his biggest hits of the season with a game-tying three-run homer to cap the Mets’ five-run fifth inning rally

• LHP David Peterson lasted just 1 1/3 innings in a nightmarish outing, surrendering five runs on five hits. But the Mets’ bullpen picked up Peterson & Co. in a huge way, delivering 7 2/3 innings of one-run baseball across six arms

• The Mets’ defense didn’t help initially, displaying continued sloppy defense early, including two errors from 2B Jeff McNeil and an ugly misplay by RF Juan Soto

• RHP Edwin Díaz was the very best version of himself, striking out five of the six batters he faced

• The Mets drove in seven of their nine runs last night with two outs; they went 4-for-7 with RISP, and won their first game of the season when trailing by five or more runs

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Injury Updates 🏥

• RHP Tylor Megill (right elbow sprain) underwent Tommy John surgery and will likely miss all of 2026; he will be a non-tender candidate at the end of this season

• CF Tyrone Taylor (left hamstring strain) underwent a workout at Wrigley Field yesterday and is likely to be activated for today’s game

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Playoff Race 🏁

With their win and the Reds’ loss yesterday, the Mets are back in control of the third Wild Card spot, although the Diamondbacks maintained their pace and sit a game behind the Mets, as do the Reds with five games to go:

As a reminder:

• The Mets own the tiebreaker against the Giants (season series: 4-2) - if they finish with identical records, the Mets would finish with the higher seed or eliminate the Giants

• The Mets do not own the tiebreaker against the Reds (season series: 2-4) - if they finish with identical records, the Reds would win the higher seed or eliminate the Mets

• The Mets and Diamondbacks finished their season series tied (3-3), but the Diamondbacks maintain a better record against the NL West than the Mets do against the NL East, so Arizona would either finish with the higher seed or eliminate the Mets

Per FanGraphs, the Mets are back up to a 67.3% chance of making it to the playoffs; the Reds’ odds have plummeted to just north of 20%, while Arizona lingers at 6%.

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Play of the Game 🎉

As if there was any doubt!

With the season on the line, everyone’s favorite troll delivered what Gary Cohen aptly called “the biggest swing of his life.”

It was also the biggest swing of the Mets’ entire season.

With the game knotted 7-7, staring down a 3-1 count with two outs and Luisangel Acuña waiting on second, Francisco Álvarez cranked a 102 mph missile off a 93 mph fastball from Chicago reliever Caleb Thielbar to put the Mets ahead late, 9-7. Those two runs were all the insurance needed with Edwin Díaz waiting in the wings.

(Funny enough, Álvy’s homer took a very similar trajectory to the one that was robbed by Nats OF Jacob Young this weekend…good karma?)

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Who’s Hot? 🔥

• Over his last 22 games, Francisco Álvarez is hitting .294/.342/.647 with six doubles, six home runs and 15 RBI with 20 hits and 13 runs scored

• Over his last 36 games, Brandon Nimmo is hitting .298/.331/.468 with six doubles, six home runs and 28 RBI with 42 hits and 23 runs scored

• Over his last 38 games, Francisco Lindor is hitting .349/.438/.586 with 12 doubles, eight home runs and 19 RBI with 13 stolen bases, 53 hits, and 37 runs scored

• Over his last 48 games, Pete Alonso is hitting .302/.344/.588 with 12 doubles, 15 home runs and 42 RBI with 60 hits and 30 runs scored

• Over his last 40 games, Juan Soto is hitting .318/.449/.642 with four doubles, one triple, 14 home runs and 38 RBI with 19 stolen bases, 36 walks, 47 hits and 38 runs scored

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Down on the Farm 🌾

Jonah Tong was named Baseball America’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and multiple Mets prospects were named Double-A yearly award winners.

Additionally, the Rumble Ponies evened the Eastern League Championship Series against the Erie SeaWolves.

• 3B Jacob Reimer (Double-A, No. 6 prospect): 2-for-4, 2B, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• 2B Wyatt Young (Double-A): 2-for-3, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• LHP Felipe De La Cruz (Double-A): 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR

SCORES

Double-A BNG

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Today’s Game 🗓️

Match-up: Mets (81-76) at Cubs (88-69)

Where: Wrigley Field — Chicago, IL

Starters: RHP Jonah Tong (2-2, 5.94 ERA) vs. LHP Matthew Boyd (13-8, 3.20 ERA)

When: 8:05 PM EDT

Where to Watch: ESPN

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Ya gotta believe (right?)✍️

Well, that was….stressful!

In a game that looked straight out of the September 2024 playbook, the Mets won their most important game of the season to date in classic nail-biting fashion. With a chance to recapture control of their playoff destiny, they seized nearly every opportunity given to them (thanks, Dansby Swanson), after arguably the worst start they could’ve endured.

David Peterson was bad last night…really bad. His entire second half has been a disasterclass, honestly: since his (deserved) All-Star nod, Peterson has come crashing down to Earth, posting a 6.34 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP over 59.2 post-ASB innings. And in his biggest outing of the year, he floundered, delivering a season-worst performance in a critical moment.

Considering how the rest of this season has gone, you’d be forgiven for turning the TV off before things got really good last night—after all, these Mets haven’t exactly been frequent benefactors of good fortune this season.

But last night’s game felt much more like a game out of September 2024…so much so, I went back through the game logs to see if there are any common themes we can glean and psychically impart onto Mendoza & Co. for the next five games.

Here’s what I found:

Last September, there were four games whose win probability swings resembled those of last night’s. Though not all perfect parallels (except that famous Braves game), each of the four games identified features some noteworthy commonalities with last night’s performance:

1. An opponent leading or tying the game late;

2. A dramatic late-game momentum swing; and

3. Acts of heroism from familiar faces.

Take another look at those charts. You may notice the same names keep popping up over and over again…namely (lol), the Franciscos.

Imagn Images/Reuters

In the final month of 2024, Franciscos Lindor and Álvarez were the Mets’ two best hitters not named Jose Iglesias. Though both players logged limited playing time (about 70 plate appearances apiece), they were, to quote Aaron Boone, animals in the box when they did step in:

• Lindor: 16 G, 68 PA, .311/.382/.607, 14 R, 3 2B, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 175 wRC+

• Álvarez: 20 G, 70 PA, .254/.357/.542, 11 R, 2 2B, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 150 wRC+

Bookending your lineup with that level of production, even in a limited sample, is a clear recipe for late-season success.

This year, the story is similar for Lindor on paper: in 87 plate appearances this month, he’s hitting .261/.402/.435 with six doubles, two homers, and 18 runs scored. Though his minuscule 4 RBI total in September may look concerning (and is, to an extent…more on that in a second), he’s making up for it by getting on base and scoring himself: his 14 BB-11 K ratio in September is his best BB/K rate this season, by a mile.

For Álvarez, it’s been a much different story, one plagued with poorly-timed injuries but rejuvenated by a wild third act that’s just started picking up serious dramatic steam.

In his last seven games, Álvarez has resembled the Álvy of ‘old’, nearly equating Lindor’s offensive production in half the opportunities. In his last 23 at-bats, he’s hitting .304/.385/.652 with two doubles, two homers, and five RBIs.

Image courtesy of the Mets

So, the Franciscos performing well is a key to success. Shocker of the century alert, Captain Obvious reporting.

Well, there is one key area where both batters are underperforming this month, and it’s arguably the place that’s holding back this offense the most — heading into yesterday’s game, both hitters had been firmly lackluster with RISP since the start of September:

• Lindor with RISP, SEP25: 20 PA, .167/.450/.167, 0 2B, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 117 wRC+

• Álvarez with RISP, SEP25: 10 PA, .222/.300/.667, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 161 wRC+

Unsurprisingly, this was not the case last September during the OMG! Mets’ torrid run to the NLCS:

• Lindor with RISP, SEP24: 13 PA, .455/.538/.636, 7 R, 2 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 231 wRC+

• Álvarez with RISP, SEP24: 20 PA, .333/.350/.944, 7 R, 2 2B, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 237 wRC+

That’s right: in more opportunities, Mr. Smile has performed significantly worse with RISP this season than he did last. Meanwhile, in half the opportunities, Álvarez is offering less than half the production. In short, both have been underperforming (albeit in admittedly incredibly limited sample sizes) in the clutch.

Until yesterday, that is, when both Mets capitalized on the opportunities presented to them.

It was those improvements in clutch situations that led to yesterday’s win, as was the case in all those rollercoaster September wins last season. And they’ll need to sustain that specific momentum to help provide that last bit of push that carries this team over the finish line.

“To reach the playoffs and see sustained success into October, the Mets need two key offensive contributors to deliver consistently in run-scoring opportunities”…revelation of the century?

🤷 Occam’s razor.

Last night, this team showed us more guts than we’ve seen in months. They have five more games to prove that several pages have been turned and that we’ve started a new chapter.

After that game, color me delusional. I believe.

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Around the League 🚩

• The Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System will be coming to MLB for the 2026 season (MLB)

• The Cleveland Guardians’ Cinderella story continues; thanks to a big sixth-inning rally, the Guards toppled the Tigers to claim first place in the AL Central; they also now own the tiebreaker over Detroit

• Yankees trade deadline acquisition Jose Caballero played hero last night, walking off the White Sox and sending the Yankees to their eighth postseason in nine years

• Josh Naylor was another trade fixture to deliver a game-winning hit for his new team, smacking a two-out RBI double in the eighth to help the Mariners beat the Rockies and clinch a playoff berth

• Geraldo Perdomo and the Diamondbacks were also walk-off winners on Tuesday, beating the Dodgers 5-4 and extending Arizona’s playoff dream