What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets have taken two straight from the Marlins, holding on for a 7-5 win behind a three-homer day; they have won seven of their last 10 (box)
SS Francisco Lindor homered on the first pitch of the game, with LF Juan Soto and 3B Brett Baty going deep in the second and third innings, respectively
Soto had a big day at the plate, responsible for four of the Mets’ seven runs on a homer, a double, and a walk; Baty was also notably productive, driving in a pair of runs on a homer and a sac fly
LHP Sean Manaea took a perfect game through five innings with four strikeouts, but the wheels fell off again in the sixth as he allowed four runs on five straight hits; he’s now allowed at least four runs in each of his last five starts
The bullpen was strong behind Manaea, with RHP Jonathan Pintaro, LHP Nate Lavender, RHP Dedniel Núñez, and RHP Kodai Senga combining for a lone run over the final four frames; Senga allowed the run on back-to-back doubles, but finished off his seventh save strong with consecutive strikeouts
Injury Updates 🏥
RHP Devin Williams (shoulder strain) threw a bullpen session yesterday; the team will assess and re-evaluate next steps today
Play of the Game ⭐️
The Mets got to Marlins ace Sandy Alcántara early, socking three homers in the first three innings.
They were all impactful in their own right — Lindor’s on the game’s very first pitch, Baty’s in the third with two outs — but no homer proved more pivotal than Soto’s three-run shot in the second, which put the Mets up 5-0 early and helped establish enough of a lead for the team to grab onto and build upon.
Who’s Hot? 🥵
Brett Baty is hitting .371/.425/.714 with 13 hits, two homers, six doubles, four runs scored, and 11 RBI over his last 15 games
The Just Mets Podcast 🎙️
ICYMI: Rich was joined by MLB Network’s Jon Morosi to preview the path ahead for the New York Mets in the David Stearns era.
SUBSCRIBE: YouTube | Apple Podcasts | Spotify
Down on the Farm 🌾
2B Émilien Pitre (Triple-A, No. 11 prospect): 2-for-3, R, BB, K
3B Vidal Brújan (Triple-A): 1-for-3, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB, K, SB
LF Jose Ramos (Triple-A): 2-for-4, 2B, R, RBI, SB
DH Billy Amick (Triple-A): 2-for-4, HR, K
SS Marco Vargas (Double-A): 2-for-5, R, RBI, 2 K, 2 SB
BOX SCORES
Double-A BNG | Triple-A SYR
Today’s Game 🗓
Match-up: Mets (67-78) vs. Marlins (72-74)
Where: loanDepot Park - Miami, FL
Starters: RHP Robert Stock (1-3, 5.81 ERA) vs. RHP Janson Junk (6-9, 4.00 ERA)
When: 6:40 PM EDT
Where to Watch: SNY
This version of Sean Manaea might no longer be viable for a starting rotation ✍️
Yesterday, Sean Manaea took a perfect game through five innings. He then fizzled out, and promptly gave up five straight hits to kick off the sixth, ending his campaign for immortality before it ever truly got going.
Though Manaea’s currently mired in a particularly rough stretch — a 5.62 ERA over his last seven starts with eight homers and 26 runs allowed — he’d largely found his stride in the second half, settling into a long-coveted rotation spot and working to a 3.03 ERA over roughly 30 innings between June 13 and August 14. His fastball velocity returned, as he predicted, and a sustained, predictable workload seemed to help him settle into a reliable rhythm.
However, since August 15th, he’s hit a very specific wall. In four of his last five starts, Manaea hasn’t escaped the sixth inning without allowing at least three runs.
Look at how severe a performance dip we’re talking about here:
Innings 1-5: 72.2 IP, 3.72 ERA, 23.1 K%–5.9 BB%, 1.20 WHIP, 75.7 LOB%, .291 BABIP, .324 wOBA, 4.00 FIP
Innings 6-7: 27.2 IP, 8.13 ERA, 15.1 K%–10.1 BB%, 1.92 WHIP, 63.6 LOB%, .344 BABIP, .453 wOBA, 6.82 FIP
Clear innings discrepancy aside, it’s like he turns into a completely different pitcher the moment the sixth frame kicks off. And though it’s been especially noticeable lately, this has really been an issue all year. Take a look at the same split in just the first half:
Innings 1-5: 42.2 IP, 4.22 ERA, 22.3 K%–4.5 BB%, 1.15 WHIP, 67.8 LOB%, .280 BABIP, 4.57 FIP
Innings 6-7: 19.0 IP, 5.68 ERA, 20.4 K%–10.8 BB%, 1.68 WHIP, 61.3 LOB%, .344 BABIP, 3.67 FIP
Though Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) suggests he was actually a bit better in those first-half innings than the surface numbers say, a near-11% walk rate speaks for itself. And even if there was some bad defense being played behind him, such significant discrepancies between WHIP and strand rate (LOB%) indicate that Manaea is more prone to balls in play in those later frames than he is early on; that .344 BABIP says as much, too.
But just how much more is Manaea getting hit later on in games? Let’s take a look at how he fares in successive turns through the order:
Ah. So he just keeps getting hit harder and harder with consistently higher-quality contact as guys get more looks at him. Not ideal.
To be clear, it isn’t exactly surprising to see a pitcher’s numbers jump up in later turns through opponent orders — obviously, the more looks guys get at your stuff, the more recognizable (and hittable) your pitch shapes are. But these trends are brighter than Rudolph’s very shiny nose: fewer strikes/Ks and elevated ball/BB rates suggest hitters know what to wait for and know what to spit on; that’s reinforced by jumps in homer, fly-ball, line drive, and hard-hit rates allowed the third time through.
Simply put, this is not the stuff of a steadfast Major League starter. And Manaea knows it:
“I’ve been terrible…I don’t really know what I have to do, but I have to figure something out.”
—Sean Manaea, 9/2/26
The answer, to me, seems clear: it would appear that Manaea’s all-but-inevitable bullpen years are staring him directly in the face.
A now 10-year MLB veteran, Manaea will be in his age-35 season in 2027; there aren’t a ton of guys that age throwing full-time starter workloads these days. Manaea is one of just 16 pitchers age-34 or older in MLB this season to throw at least 120 innings — he did that over 29 appearances, with 15 starts. Manaea has thrown 43 innings as a reliever this season; there are 28 other relievers in MLB age-34 and older who have exceeded 40 innings this season, most of them with appearance numbers to match. With several high-potential lefties (Jonathan Santucci, Daviel Hurtado, Shane Sdao, Nicolas Carreno, Felipe De La Cruz) working their way through the system and an interesting starting pitcher free agent class beyond Tarik Skubal, the Mets find themselves in a very interesting roster position as they approach the final year of Manaea’s tenure with the team.
Though his numbers as a reliever look ‘meh’ this season in a vacuum (43.0 IP, 5.02 ERA, 1.44 WHIP), it’s important to remember those innings were logged in the first half as he was “ramping up,” so to speak. His career numbers in relief admittedly aren’t drastically different, but the last time he posted full-time bullpen hours in 2023, he posted a 4.18 ERA with a 3.49 FIP and a 1.17 WHIP over 71 innings of work. Not shutdown closer stuff, certainly, but he’s demonstrated time and time again that he can be plenty serviceable for an inning or two.
Why not make that the new permanent formula?
Though he’s been floundering recently, Manaea still has stuff to bring to the table (semi-literally; his Stuff+ grade sits at 103, the fourth-highest mark of his career). Despite a slow start to the season (literally), he did manage to bring his average fastball velo back up to a previously established career baseline, and though the results have left much to be desired as of late, he’s been eating valuable innings for this team in the second half, averaging more than five frames per start since June 1st.
Though he may not have the stuff to sustain a starter’s workload over the course of a full season anymore, that level of veteran stability on a staff is invaluable and provides a significant level of flexibility, particularly later in the season — be it for the Mets or for someone else.
Sean Manaea’s time in Queens has been fraught, framed by some extreme highs and some equally frustrating lows. But what’s never been in question is the value he brings in the clubhouse as a leader and mentor, particularly to the Mets’ shiny young psycho core. That alone is worth millions of dollars, even if his negative bWAR value is not.
Manaea’s role on this team was inevitably going to change as Mets brass continues to lean into the new era and starts increasingly looking towards younger options to start filling gaps and getting chances on the field in Queens. The Mets’ bullpen doesn’t exactly have a ton of room right now, but it’s woefully low on lefty talent…you have to imagine they’d love to get an extra 50 innings from the left side of the rubber while also affording some room for rookie debuts and spot starts next year.
Manaea is the exact candidate to foot that bill. And it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to anyone, even him, should such an arrangement be requested of him next spring.
Around the League 🚩
The Brewers won their 90th game of the season in thrilling fashion thanks to a last-out, ninth-inning rally sparked by a Christian Yelich single that led to a game-tying homer from Junior Caminero; rookie Luis Lara walked it off with a single in the 10th as the Brewers edged the Cubs 4-3
Blue Jays rookie Kazuma Okamoto hit his 30th homer of the year in a 4-2 Toronto win over the A’s; he is tied with Munetaka Murakami for the most homers among AL rookies, and only Sal Stewart has more rookie homers in all of MLB
Yankees ace Cam Schlittler allowed just one run on three hits over seven innings, notching 10 strikeouts with no walks; it’s his 20th start this season in which he’s allowed one or fewer runs while Aaron Judge made his long-awaited return from injury, going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and six innings in the field - the Yankees beat the Rockies 5-3
RHP Corbin Burnes allowed two hits and two walks over three innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, but didn’t allow any runs - the D’Backs ended up beating the Royals 5-3
Astros center fielder Daulton Varsho had three hits, including a double and a homer, in a 6-5 win over the Phillies
In this era of 5-inning starters, is it possible Manaea says in the rotation for 18 batters and there is a "designated bulk reliever" on the days he starts? An ERA under 4 for the opening of the game is acceptable for a fifth starter.
Off-subject: Looks like Baty is giving us another tease, as in "this is the real Baty". He's been such a weak hitter for so long and he's had ample opportunity. I'm ready to move on.