Buzz on Framber Valdez, and the Mets fWAR deficit
The Mets have a lot of ground to make up in order to simply be as bad as they were in 2025
🎉 🎄 Happy Holidays from everyone at Just Mets! 🎄 🎉
What’s up with the Mets? 🍎
The Mets, Giants, and Orioles have talked to free agent LHP Framber Valdez (NY Post)
The Mets did make an attempt to acquire 1B Willson Contreras before he was dealt to the Red Sox (NY Post)
The Mets and RHP Mike Baumann agreed to contract terms (NY Post)
Rumor Mill 💨
The Astros and Orioles are out as trade possibilities for Marlins RHP Edward Cabrera (Miami Herald)
The Royals and Yankees are among those keeping tabs on OF Austin Hays (NY Post)
Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello is drawing trade interest (Athletic)
Free agents Bo Bichette, Kazuma Okamoto and a possible trade for Ketel Marte interest the Red Sox (NY Post)
The Pirates, Angels, Jays, and Diamondbacks are all interested in Okamoto (NY Post)
The Diamondbacks, Cubs, Red Sox and Blue Jays are all interested in Alex Bregman (NY Post)
The Angels, Pirates, White Sox, and Blue Jays are among those interested in Yoán Moncada (BesibolFR)
The A’s are intent on having a higher payroll (Athletic)
What I’m Reading 📰
It’s time for David Stearns to break his silence (NY Post)
Clubhouse stories didn’t result in losses, but they can’t be overlooked (Newsday)
The case for David Wright and his Hall of Fame candidacy (Daily News)
More Framber buzz and your appetite for patience ✍️
Welcome back, and I hope everyone had a fun and relaxing Christmas holiday, whether or not you celebrate. It is usually a quiet time in the workplace for most, although if you had to work, I hope it was as stress-free as possible. And if you have to go back to work this week, I hope you don’t get bugged too much. We all deserve a little sanity at the office sometimes.
For our family, it was a little bit rough on Thursday as a stomach virus made its rounds through our house. But, it happens as we all know, and it didn’t spoil Christmas morning at least for the younger folks in our house.
At any rate, back to business with the Mets, which remains quiet although that isn’t unexpected with MLB and club offices closed for the holidays as they always are. That doesn’t mean cell phones, text messages, and the internet are closed, as there has been some business taking place, and there’s nothing stopping anyone from making a transaction, but it’s mostly been minor transactions over the last little while. Things should begin to move in the next seven to ten days again as there are a lot of free agents still available, a lot of players available in trade, and as for the Mets anyway, a lot of needs to be filled.
That’s in theory, of course. Because as I’ve said before, I just don’t know what it is the Mets are really doing here.
This sure looks like a rebuild - David Stearns has unloaded the core of this team with the exception of Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor. Yet, they’re investing $25 million into the eighth and ninth innings of their bullpen in 2026 and made a short-term overpay to Jorge Polanco for $20 million in 2026. That’s a lot to spend on a rebuild and a lot to spend on areas of a team that don’t need spending on during a rebuild.
Three weeks ago, there was a lot of time left before the start of Spring Training. But the Mets have only dug their hole deeper with the trade of Jeff McNeil with next to no response, and now there are just about six weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Port St. Lucie. Sure, there are a lot of free agents available; they can definitely swing a big trade, but the Mets have to cover a 7 fWAR deficit that they’ve created just to be as bad as they were in 2025, as of right now anyway.
That’s a lot of work, a lot of coin, and potentially some more hard-thought decision-making and risk-taking just to get back to where they were, with a vastly different look and identity to the roster.
Now, if you’re an optimist, you can view this as Stearns building this roster on his terms. If it works out, whether that’s in 2026, 2027, or beyond that, we will look back at this exercise from November and December, 2025, joyously. If it doesn’t, he falls on his own sword and gets chalked up as yet another GM who tried to fix the Mets and end their championship drought and couldn’t, joining the countless executives on their wall of shame.
The question, of course, is, what is your appetite for patience?
It’s been a very long time since this franchise won a championship; it’s been 36 years since their last run of sustained excellence (1984-1989). How positive and optimistic can anyone be after they traded two parts of their core away and let two other parts walk without a lot of hesitation? Yeah, they didn’t win with those guys, but only one of them pitched, and that’s the part that stunk the most during their tenures here, which wasn’t their fault.
And sure, there’s plenty of evidence of cliques, personality clashes, infighting, and Gen Z drama in that clubhouse, but that happens everywhere. It’s a workplace, and when you’re in close quarters with the same people all the time, you’re just going to have some issues sometimes. Usually, in sports anyway, winning fixes all of that.
Of course, we all know Rome wasn’t built in a day. And cutting out 10+ fWAR from the core isn’t easy for any franchise to replace in one off-season, regardless of the wealth of their owner. And even if they do, it all has to mesh on the field.
In other words, even if the Mets sign Cody Bellinger and Framber Valdez and trade for another arm as the headliners, there’s still a long way to go for this team. That’s a big deficit to cover and outside of the way the Dodgers conduct themselves, going on an fWAR buying spree in one off-season doesn’t normally translate into championship parades.
Speaking of Valdez, there was some buzz late last week that the Mets were among a few teams who have spoken with his camp. The context on that isn’t clear - was that their meeting during the GM Meetings nearly two months ago, or was that more recent?
Valdez will be entering his age 32 season in 2026, so a lengthy contract is very risky. He’s a ground ball pitcher too, which is great, but could be some trouble as currently constructed here. And he is a pitch-to-contact arm as well, which again means the Mets must have a stronger defense behind him, inclusive of the outfield, which is now an area of need thanks to Brandon Nimmo’s departure.
Valdez has been one of the top pitchers in baseball over the last five seasons, pitching to a 3.20 ERA since the start of 2021. He has often been a workhorse for the Astros, hurling over 190 innings in three of his last four seasons and has been a part of a lot of winning in that time span.
Valdez has relied on generating weak contact in his career rather than blowing people away, which is reflected in his 8.77 strikeouts per nine from this past season.
The starting pitching market seemed more robust a month ago when Dylan Cease and his 4.55 ERA in 2025 signed his seven-year, $210 million deal with the Blue Jays, but perhaps that actually served to stall the market on the sticker shock factor. It seemed all but certain Valdez would get six years and similar AAV to Cease, but while I think the AAV could still be in the $30-34 million range for Valdez, that he is still on the market would suggest he might not be in for a six-year term anymore.
That could be where the Mets come into play. Stearns is a GM who clearly lets the market come to him. That’s what modern GMs refer to as being opportunistic in the marketplace, as in they’ll all sign anyone as long as it’s below their initial ask. And that’s fine as long as it works out. It didn’t with Alonso this time, although it did a year ago.
So, if Valdez is now in the 4-5 year range, that should be more appetizing for the Mets, but still an unknown whether or not it is. Obviously, they’d prefer a three-year deal - that seems to be their magic number for free agents this winter, although that would probably open up other doors for Valdez as well. But, if he could be had on a four-year, $132 million guaranteed block with some kind of option system built in, that could be attractive for the Mets and the player as well. He gets more in AAV than Cease and the potential opportunity to re-enter the market if he wants.
Of course, I am just spitballing for the most part here. I don’t think they love Valdez since he’s 30+ and already showing some signs of decline. I also don’t really know how they feel about the issue from last season when it was alleged he threw at his own catcher while with the Astros. After cleaning house and apparently attempting to scrub the clubhouse of their own bad culture, this is a tough one to read for them.
But, Valdez and the Mets have been well connected throughout the off-season, and until the Mets fill this need in another way, it’s worth watching.
As I’ve said before, whether it’s here or on the socials, the Mets can’t even field a team right now or get through a nine-inning game. So, more moves are coming. Who those players are and the caliber of what they bring in are anyone’s guess at this point.
Around the League 🚩
The A’s agreed to a seven-year, $86 million extension with Tyler Soderstrom (ESPN)
The Marlins signed RHP Pete Fairbanks to a one-year, $13 million contract (Athletic | ESPN)
The Cubs signed RHP Hunter Harvey to a one-year contract (Athletic)
The Reds and OF JJ Bleday agreed to a one-year contract (FanSided)
The Orioles are bringing back RHP Zach Efflin on a one-year, $10 million deal (USA Today)
Shouldn't Montas be a negative fWAR? I'm kidding! Sorta...
I’m done until ST.