The Mets and the Red Sox are the two most likely landing spots for Juan Soto, with Hall of Famer David Ortiz working hard to recruit Soto to Boston. The Yankees might not be willing to go beyond $550 million with their offer(NJ.com)- Dec. 1
As the bidding enters its second round, the Yankees upgraded their initial offer to Juan Soto, who is looking for a 15-year contract (New York Post) - Nov. 27
The Red Sox are becoming more and more aggressive in their pursuit of Soto, and are seen as a legitimate contender for the superstar hitter (New York Post) - Nov. 27
While five teams have already made offers for Juan Soto, there are expected to be multiple rounds of offers made, with the first round of offers expected to be preliminary and meant as a way to gauge interest from all parties. The following offers / rounds will increasingly become more serious, with a final decision possible around the Winter Meetings (The Athletic) - Nov. 27
The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and Blue Jays have all extended offers for Soto (SNY) - Nov. 26
Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy confirmed that his team are firmly in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, making clear that the Sox have “a sense of extreme urgency internally” to be competitive in 2025 (SNY) - Nov. 20
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner revealed that he had a “very honest” meeting with Juan Soto, but has “no idea” if the superstar will return to the Bronx (NY Post) - Nov. 20
Juan Soto ending up with the Mets this winter is seen as the “most likely scenario” according to one prominent insider (Athletic) - Nov. 19
The Dodgers reportedly met with Juan Soto on Tuesday (MLB.com)– Nov. 19
The Phillies haven’t met with Juan Soto yet, but they plan to (New York Post)– Nov. 19
The Mets are willing to bid $50 million over whoever is the highest bidder for Juan Soto (YES Network)– Nov. 18
Mets owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, and manager Carlos Mendoza met with Scott Boras and Juan Soto on Saturday in Newport Beach, CA (New York Post)– Nov. 16
The Mets came away “hopeful” and perhaps “optimistic” of their chances of being able to sign Soto
They remain viewed as one of the favorites to sign Soto, as the meeting went very well
Someone would have to blow Juan Soto away with an offer to pry him from the Yankees, who could sign before the Winter Meetings (SNY)– Nov. 12
Francisco Lindor has taken a role in the club’s pursuit of free agent superstar Juan Soto (ESPN)– Nov. 12
Soto is eying a $700 million contract in free agency (New York Post)– Oct. 31
After the Yankees lost Game 5 of the World Series, Soto told reporters all 30 clubs will be in play for his free agency this winter (watch)– Oct. 30
Boston is the one that worries me… ✍️
First off, I hope everyone has had a nice Thanksgiving weekend. Its gotten a little cold in the New York area, but hopefully everyone has been able to have a nice time with friends and family over the last few days.
Anyway, I wrote on Facebook earlier this week that Boston is the team that worries me the most in the Juan Soto derby. They reportedly made an impressive and aggressive presentation to Soto a couple of weeks ago, and it sounds as though they’re continuing to make an aggressive play to land Soto.
Here’s why…
As I wrote a few weeks ago, the Yankees are constrained by the luxury tax all before even making an offer to Soto. They are already in the area of $220-230 million committed to their 2025 payroll, and I’ve gotten the sense over the last few months they’d be as conservative as they could be with Soto.
Now, I didn’t necessarily think that was specifically true but I think it points to the reporting we are seeing now, in that they may not even be in third place in this derby at the time of this writing.
That could change at anytime, of course (my disclaimer).
Meanwhile, the Mets and the Red Sox have plenty of wiggle room with the luxury tax even if they sign Soto for $60 million per year, and I’d be surprised if that’s the final number although I do believe it could be above $50 million per.
The Red Sox, according to Cot’s Contracts, currently have $130-140 million committed to their 2025 payroll. The Mets, according to Cot’s Contracts, currently have $150-$160 million committed to their 2025 payroll.
The first luxury tax threshold is $241 million.
Now, why do I think the Mets could still hold an advantage?
First off, they have the richest owner and if that owner wants the player, he can simply outbid everyone else for that player’s services. And because they have the richest owner, their ability and willingness to outbid everyone else is less impactful on their current and future payrolls, even if the club is currently operating at a loss, as they reportedly are.
To keep the numbers simple, let’s say the best non-Mets bid for Soto is 13 years, $650 million per year. That’s an average annual value of $50 million a year. I chose that number because I think we all know that’s the minimum number we expect Soto to sign for.
With literally all other teams in the running operating with less payroll flexibility combined with ownership groups who have shown no evidence to operate in the stratosphere the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers are (because, they’ve actually done it, so that’s the proof they will), the Mets are probably operating in the position of the most strength out of any club simply from a fiscal perspective.
So, if the Mets need to go to 13 years, $715 million ($55 million AAV) as a “blow away” offer to land Soto, that doesn’t push the envelope nearly as far for them as it would for the Yankees.
Why? It’s an extra $5 million per year.
In simple terms, without doing anything else in an expensive marketplace, it would increase the Mets current 2025 obligation to $200-215 million, whereas it would increase the Yankees current 2025 obligation to $270-285 million, which is in the second tier of penalties (42.5 percent surcharge in the first year, 45 percent in subsequent years).
Of course, the Red Sox would still be between $180-195 million, well below both.
That’s why I consider Boston the greatest threat to the Mets in this race.
Having said that, the Dodgers will always be a lurking threat as long as they continue to defer money for their current contracts. After all, the whole reason Shohei Ohtani took nearly a 100 percent deferral was so the club could continue to have short and long-term payroll flexibility. Both Blake Snell and Tommy Edman took heavy deferrals in their new contracts with them, so I won’t rule them out until they’re out, even if they’re considered long shots.
I'm on board with this. The math works for Boston. Big Papi and Rafael Devers are lobbying hard, too, and that's a factor which can't be discounted.
Neither can the temptation of banging in that ballpark. Soto's career 162-game averages are .285/35 HR/102 RBI. He'll hit around .320 in Fenway, and you can tack on 10 dingers and 20 ribeyes to his typical output. Year after year after year.
I'm on board with this. The math works for Boston. Big Papi and Rafael Devers are lobbying hard, too, and that's a factor which can't be discounted.
Neither can the temptation of banging in that ballpark. Soto's career 162-game averages are .285/35 HR/102 RBI. He'll hit around .320 in Fenway, and you can tack on 10 dingers and 20 ribeyes to his typical output. Year after year after year.
He'll be a monster.
I don’t understand why the Red Sox, after trading Mookie Betts because they wouldn’t pay him what he deserved, are now willing to bid on Soto