Are the Mets collapsing?

The Mets lost another game they couldn't afford to in a race that's done nothing but heat up

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What’s up with the Mets? ⚾️

• The Mets lost again in Philadelphia, 9-3, and have now lost four in a row (box)

• Mets hitters were stymied by Ranger Suárez, who tallied 12 strikeouts while allowing a single hit in his six shutout innings

• Sean Manaea struggled yet again, allowing four runs in the first two innings before settling down slightly to survive through the fifth; Justin Hagenman allowed another five runs in his three innings of relief

• CF Jose Siri had a somewhat productive return to action, going 1-for-4 with a double and a run scored

• RF Juan Soto stole his 30th base of the season, marking the first 30/30 campaign of his career. He is the fifth Met to reach this milestone, alongside Darryl Strawberry, Howard Johnson (3x), David Wright, and Francisco Lindor

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Injury Updates 🏥

• RHP Tylor Megill (elbow strain) underwent an MRI and is seeking multiple opinions

• OF Tyrone Taylor (left hamstring strain) “should start a rehab assignment” next week

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Roster Moves 📰

• Jose Siri was activated from the 60-day IL

• LF Jared Young was optioned to Syracuse

• RHP Justin Garza was outrighted to Syracuse

• RHP Wander Suero was designated for assignment

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Playoff Race 🏁

Any hopes for a late push to capture the NL East crown are all but dead as the Mets now sit nine games behind the Philles with 17 games left to play:

Unfortunately, though the Cardinals lost again, both the Reds and the Giants won their games yesterday, reducing the Mets’ hold on the final Wild Card spot to a measly two games:

As previously discussed, the Mets hold the tiebreaker over the Giants and Cardinals, but the Reds control the tiebreaker over the Mets.

• Mets & Reds tie: Reds either receive higher seed or eliminate Mets.

• Mets & Giants/Cardinals tie: Mets receive higher seed or eliminate Giants/Cardinals.

A Mets-Diamondbacks tiebreaker would be determined by their respective divisional records at the end of the season. The Mets are 23-20 in NL East play this season, with eight games left against divisional opponents. Arizona is 22-18 against the NL West this year, with 10 games left against their divisional rivals (rules).

Per Fangraphs, the Mets now have just an 89.3% chance of making the 2025 playoffs.

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Play of the Game ⭐️

Yes, Juan Soto made Mets history last night. Yes, Mark Vientos hit his 17th homer in the seventh to finally get the Mets on the board.

Neither of those moments did much to influence the overall outcome of the game, though. Because while Soto’s stolen base came in the eighth on the heels of his RBI single that scored Siri…the Mets were still staring down a five-run deficit with four outs to spare.

And mere moments after Vientos started the scoring for New York, Kyle Schwarber put the game away for good:

On a weak 3-1 meatball cutter from Justin Hagenman, Schwarber launched his 50th homer of the season, a three-run shot to the deepest part of the Bank. Schwarber is the first player in the National League to eclipse this mark this season, and it’s the first 50-homer season of his career.

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Down on the Farm 🌾

• SS Jett Williams (No. 2 prospect, Triple-A): 1-for-4, HR, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 K

• 1B Ryan Clifford (No. 8 prospect, Triple-A): 1-for-3, HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K

• RF Nick Morabito (No. 16 prospect, Double-A): 1-for-4, 1 RBI, 1 SB

• 3B Colin Houck (High-A): 1-for-4, HR, 1 R, 3 RBI

SCORES

Single-A STL (PPD) | High-A BRK | Double-A BNG | Triple-A SYR

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Today’s Game 🗓️

Match-up: Mets (76-69) at Phillies (85-60)

Where: Citizens Bank Park — Philadelphia, PA

Starters: RHP Clay Holmes (11-7, 3.61 ERA) vs. LHP Cristopher Sánchez (12-5, 2.60 ERA)

When: 6:45 PM EDT

Where to Watch: SNY

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Are the Mets good at anything right now? ✍️

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Sigh…at least football’s back.

I don’t want to sit here and ooze pessimism first thing in the morning, but I definitely understand the reflex. I’m not immune to it, believe me — my first instinct was to just fire off an angry open letter at what appears to be a presently feckless team.

But still, I wanted to first do my due diligence and dig into the team’s splits since September started to see if there’s anything in the data that’s worth getting excited about.

The short answer is…not really.

The truth is, this team told us who they are a long time ago, and an uncharacteristically superpowered offense in August provided a boost above a mediocre baseline that ended up being cancelled out by catastrophic pitching.

And as the season crawls into its final weeks and this team regresses to a mean we’re all unfortunately familiar with, it’s left us with very few silver linings to cling to. After a few exciting weeks of banging the ball around, they’re back to being the mostly-average or worse offense they were throughout the first half and beyond, further burdened by one of the least effective starting rotations in the league (5.11 SP ERA in Sep., 22nd in MLB).

There’s no sugar-coating it: the Mets’ playoff odds today are more tenuous than they’ve been in a while, and a postseason berth isn’t a guarantee. There’s a non-zero chance that a 2007-esque collapse could happen, and we should all mentally prepare ourselves for that reality. If you’ve already emotionally divested from this team, that much more power to you.

I tried really hard to find some points of optimism for us to collectively cling to, but unfortunately, the data didn’t reveal much more to me than I already knew just from watching the games: this team is in a rough spot.

While the Mets’ offense is largely painfully mediocre recently (and outright non-existent the last few days), it’s ranking top 10 so far this month in:

• wRC+: 118 (8th)

• Home Runs: 9 (10th)

• Stolen Bases: 11 (2nd)

• SLG: .432 (10th)

• ISO: .178 (8th)

• BB%: 10.2% (6th)

• Chase rate: 28.1% (4th)

• Position Player fWAR: 1.4 (9th)

No, these numbers haven’t translated to an influx of wins nor another offensive explosion yet (34 September runs scored, 14th, vs. 33 allowed, 18th), but there’s at least some reassurance to me that they’re finding a way to balance plate discipline with some power maintenance. That gives me at least some hope that the bats have another hot streak left in them somewhere…it’s just a matter of whether they can get hot enough to overcome a seemingly cursed pitching staff.

While the Mets’ veteran starters have been plenty awful, the bullpen, though slightly better, hasn’t provided all that much help in this latest stretch:

• Mets Starters in September: 37.0 IP, 5.11 ERA, .267/.350/.422, 5 HR, 10 XBH, 1.49 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9, 68.8% LOB%, 4.22 FIP (3.50 xFIP)

• Mets Relievers in September: 22.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, .253/.323/.333, 1 HR, 5 XBH, 1.41 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9, 67.6% LOB%, 3.05 FIP (4.34 xFIP)

The arrivals of Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong (and hopefully Brandon Sproat) have certainly provided this rotation with a slight spark of insurance and padding…but you don’t need me to spell out the risk(s) of relying on three rookie arms in the home stretch of a too-close-for-comfort playoff race, especially with a bullpen that’s performing only marginally better than the starters and an offense that loses all guts in the late innings:

• Mets Hitters in the 8th/9th in Sep: .231/.298/.346, 1 HR, 3 2B, 1 RBI, .289 BABIP, .115 ISO, .286 wOBA, 87 wRC+

One RBI in the 8th and/or 9th inning through eight games this one. ONE!! It makes me sick.

I know I said I didn’t want to pile on the pessimism today, but this team is making it difficult for me to stay purely objective right now. Even removing any sort of emotional investment in whether or not they make the playoffs, they’re playing a straight-up frustrating brand of baseball that’s getting steadily less enjoyable to watch.

To be fair, it’s not like there haven’t been things to celebrate recently: on top of compiling a literally historic offensive season, Juan Soto becoming the fifth Met to notch a 30/30 season, especially doing it in his first year with the team, is a special achievement, and we should recognize it as such.

There’s been a lot of chatter about whether Soto’s stolen-base milestone is a “meaningless” stat, or whether it’s another example of him padding his individual stat line. Frankly, such noise is nonsense. This excellent video from No More Fielders breaks down the Mets’ approach to base stealing this season and precisely what’s made it such a valuable part of their offensive strategy — I highly recommend you go watch that when you’re done reading this.

But, with the sun starting to set on the 2025 season, the Mets only have so much time left to firmly flip the narrative back in their favor. Their playoff destiny is still in their hands for now…but it’s up to them to play like they know it.

Despite building evidence to the contrary, I’m still hesitant to declare this team destined for a meltdown worse than ‘07. The relentless optimist in me will never fully give up hope that this team has some fire left in them for a last-minute run…but they’re making him work overtime.

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Around the League 🚩

• Houston’s Luis Garcia left the mound in the second inning of their game against Toronto with right elbow discomfort; it was just his second start back from a lengthy Tommy John recovery

• Dodgers rookie Roki Sasaki struck out eight batters over 4.2 IP in his latest rehab start, while walking four and allowing three runs on three hits

• Guardians lefty Joey Cantillo allowed just four hits and struck out five with no walks allowed in eight scoreless innings of work; it was just his second appearance since returning from the Minors

• Aaron Judge surpassed Yogi Berra for fifth place on the Yankees’ all-time home run leaderboard