A look at two top shelf free agent starting pitchers for the Mets

Plus, the Mets have finalists for award season and a new addition to the coaching staff is in the fold

What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎

• SS Francisco Lindor has been named a finalist for the National League’s Most Valuable Player Award along with Shohei Ohtani and Ketel Marte

• Mets manager Carlos Mendoza has been named a finalist for the National League’s Manager of the Year Award along with Brewers manager Pat Murphy and Padres manager Mike Shildt

• The Mets are hiring former Yankee assistant pitching coach Desi Druschel to the same position (SNY)

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Rumor Mill 💨

• The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, Red Sox and two, "mystery" teams are the finalists for Juan Soto (New York Post)

• The Braves acquired SS Nick Allen from the A’s for minor league pitcher Jared Johnson

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A look at Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell… ✍️

This is the part of the off-season we can all speculate about pretty much anyone who is available, whether its a trade for a young and controllable left-handed pitcher, or a generational free agent and future hall of famer who also happens to have the same agent as the Mets most prolific player they’ve ever produced.

Today will be no different, as I am going to take a look at two of the best free agent pitchers available in Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell.

Historically anyway, most of the ideas we throw at the proverbial whiteboard never come to pass. After all, they’re really just ideas and as we all know, free agency is more complicated than an owner simply being able to throw money at their problems.

Sure, that solves a large part of the recruitment process, and Steve Cohen can at least outbid anyone for their services, and will if he really wants to bring a player in. But because Mr. Cohen brings the value of leverage to any negotiation, he has smartened up and learned not to simply show up to dinner with a treasure chest full of gold bars and 100 dollar bills.

No, he only breaks that out if he firmly believes he can actually sign a player and after he, David Stearns and the entire front office has weighed all of the risks in simply making the offer, not to mention the risks to current and future payroll, the risks to the luxury tax obligations, the risks in the draft and their ability to sign international free agents, and more.

Yes, sign-ability for both sides is the word we all need to remember, whether its with Burnes, Snell, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, or anyone who we might think is a good fit to bring back or bring into the fold.

And that’s the unknown quantity from our seat, since we don’t have a seat at the table.

But, we are allowed to speculate, have some fun, and dream a little bit. We all know most of this won’t come to pass even after David Stearns has already said the Mets are going to be diving into the deep end of the pool in free agency, and even after we already know the Mets will be spending at least part of their week this week in Newport Beach with Soto and Scott Boras.

But, who cares. We are going to continue to speculate, logically connect some dots, have some fun and see if we are right in the end.

The Mets need at least two starting pitchers for the top of their depth chart. Stearns has already said they are interested in reunions with both Severino and Manaea after extending them qualifying offers. I profiled both of them during the World Series, and you can read that here.

Here we go on Burnes and Snell…

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Corbin Burnes

Burnes, who turned 30 in October, pitched to a 2.92 ERA for the Orioles in 2024 while going 15-9 over 32 starts and 194.1 IP. It was the third straight season Burnes made 30+ starts, and he issued just 48 walks against 181 strikeouts for Baltimore as well.

He is a four-time All-Star and won the National League Cy Young Award in 2021 after setting a career-best 2.43 ERA (162-game season) with 243 strikeouts in 167 IP. Baltimore made him the $21.05 million qualifying offer, which he will unquestionably decline and go for the gold in free agency as the best available starting pitcher on the market.

Burnes’ main pitch is a cutter which can be deadly against left-handed hitters. In 2024, lefties produced a .573 OPS and hit only .216 against him, which is pretty much inline with his career marks. His effectiveness dipped a bit against right-handed hitters in 2024 as they produced a still modest .666 OPS against him, compared to a .619 career mark.

His cutter is elite, to a point where he can neutralize left-handed hitters as well as any elite left-handed pitcher might be able to do. Despite the 22 home runs allowed in 2024, he’s still a groundball pitcher thanks to his cutter, curve, and sinker, and there’s rarely any hard contact against him as a result.

For the Mets specifically, there’s also the familiarity aspect with Burnes and his free agency.

Recall - Burnes was a part of a Brewers roster under the guardianship of David Stearns during his time in Milwaukee. Stearns knows the player, knows the person, and knows how his game and personality might fit into the culture and philosophy here.

And I would say we should throw out that bitter arbitration hearing Burnes and the Brewers experienced a couple of years ago, as Stearns wasn’t a part of that process that year.

Now, I don’t want to simply throw the risk of signing pitchers 30+ to long-term contracts right on the table, especially since there are so many good reasons for the Mets to take a risk with a pitcher like Burnes. But I can’t help but discuss some of the issues already staring us in the face.

First off, there has been a significant drop-off in his strikeout rate over the last three seasons. He struck out 12.6 batters per nine innings in his Cy Young season in 2021, but then 10.8 in 2022, 9.3 in 2023, and 8.4 in 2024. His swing and miss rate on his cutter - his best and most relied-upon pitch - was down three percent in 2024. The batting average against his cutter went from .209 in 2023 to .251 in 2024.

This isn’t a stuff issue necessarily for Burnes, at least not yet. The velocity on his cutter actually went up year over year from 2023 (94.4) to 2024 (95.3). But while his cutter was just as good in 2024 as it has been in prior years, his curve has become less effective for him steadily since he won the Cy Young Award in 2021.

This might be a little nitpicky, but I can’t help but look at that diminished strikeout rate and think about how that might play out over what is likely to be a six- or seven-year deal for a pitcher who just turned 30. I think we all know Burnes’ best years might not be in front of him, and he may only have 2-4 years of shelf life left as a top starting pitcher. And certainly if the Mets sign him and win the World Series, the deal is worth it regardless of how years 5-7 might look at $27-30 million per year.

But Stearns, I am sure, is wary of all of this plus other things I am not remotely smart enough to see or sense.

As you can see, I am on the fence as to whether or not the Mets should sign Burnes. There’s a lot of great here, but there’s a lot of risk, and it’s not as if long-term deals to free agent have really worked out for the Mets, historically. Of course, this is a different Mets regime with the ability to take on more risk than they had under the previous owner, and they need to show a willingness to do so at times.

The question is whether or not Burnes is that arm to take a risk on?

Blake Snell

Here we are with Snell again, who opted out of his contract with the Giants and has become a free agent, again.

Recall, he signed late with the Giants in 2024 after his agent, Scott Boras, sought an overvalued deal for a pitcher who, while he had just won his second Cy Young Award in 2023 was branded as erratic and inefficient. He ended up settling for a two-year, $62 million deal with a player option for the 2025 season. He earned a $15 million salary along with a $17 million signing bonus, although the Giants won’t be pay that bonus out until January 1, 2026. In addition, half of his 2025 salary would’ve been deferred until 2027.

So, Snell is a free agent again.

Now, things weren’t all that rosy for Snell out of the gate in 2024. He was nothing short of horrific in his first three starts for the Giants after ramping up way too quickly as a result of signing late. The Giants put him on the injured list with what was described as an abductor strain after he posted an 11.57 ERA in his first three starts of the year. After a month’s absence, he came back and made three more ineffective starts before being put back on the injured list with a groin strain.

But then came the transformation for Snell that very few people saw coming after such a miserable start to the season.

Over his final 14 starts of the season from July 9 onward, Snell posted a 1.23 ERA, held opponents to a .382 OPS, a .123 batting average, and struck out 114 batters over 80.1 IP during that span. He did walk 30 batters but that’s just Snell who has always been effectively wild with dastardly stuff when inside the strike zone. In between was a no-hitter against the Reds on August 2, a 15 strikeout performance against the Rockies the start before on July 27, and double-digit strikeout performances in five of those final 14 starts of the season.

The final product was a 3.12 ERA over 20 starts with the Giants in 2024.

The issue for Snell, of course, is his command, as has always been the case for the erratic left-handed starter. He has walked 4.1 batters per nine innings in his career, and that marked jumped to 5 during his Cy Young season in 2023. That has helped create a brand for Snell as a short-inning pitcher, which stands to reason considering he has averaged about 5.1 innings per start throughout his career. But, his walk rate actually improved to 3.8 per nine in 2024, and he was able to up his mark to 5.2 IP per start as a result.

Snell has one of the best curveballs in the game. Opponents hit .111 against that pitch in 2024, .079 against it in 2023. His slider isn’t half bad either - he held opponents to a .167 batting average against that pitch in 2024, .123 in 2023.

His stuff is undeniably good, he’s left-handed and his resume speaks for itself. He also isn’t tethered to draft compensation, as the Giants could not make him a qualifying offer after the Padres made him one after the 2023 season. So, it makes his free agency that much more attractive for the Mets and other clubs looking for a top starting pitcher.

In the end though, its difficult to forecast that Snell will truly shave his walk rate down to a point where he can be a reliable six inning starter, which will in-turn water his free agent value down. That plus being a year older as he heads into his age-32 season will make it difficult for him unless he seeks a shorter term deal in free agency.

However, Snell unquestionably deserves more than a two-year deal with an opt-out. He could be in the range now for a three or a four-year deal with a club option and a similar average annual value to the deal he signed with the Giants in March, and that should be something the Mets entertain as they look for a top shelf starter this winter.

He’s a couple of years older than Burnes, and there’s no denying that his command issues can lead to his undoing. But there’s also no denying Snell is as good a pitcher as there is in baseball when he’s right and without the draft compensation tied to him and the potential for a shorter term commitment, Snell might be a more attractive option for the Mets than Burnes is at this point in time.

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Around the League 🚩

• Police have arrested Wander Franco again, this time for an altercation involving a gun-related incident (ESPN)

• The Marlins hired Dodger first base coach Clayton McCullough to be their next manager (release)

• The Angels reached an agreement with the embattled Diamond Sports Group on a three-year contract for broadcasting rights, who now anticipating raising their payroll (LA Times)