Winter Meetings begin with Justin Verlander in sight for the Mets
Could Justin Verlander soon be a New York Met?
What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎
The Mets remained in contact with Cy Young winner Justin Verlander (SNY) and are among the favorites to sign him along with the Dodgers, if perhaps they add a third year to the deal (New York Post)
The Blue Jays remain involved in Verlander’s free agency (Sportsnet)
The Mets are concerned they might miss out on other pitching options if negotiations for Carlos Rodón are dragged out (New York Post)
RHP Chris Bassitt is reportedly seeking a deal longer than three years (NY Post)
Max Scherzer can opt out after next season and the team needs to start preparing now should they lose another ace (NY Post)
Links to read from the weekend 🔗
Winter Meetings ❄️
The Winter Meetings have begun at the Marriott Marquis in San Diego, California. The event will run through the conclusion of the Rule 5 Draft on Thursday, with Mets manager Buck Showalter being made available to the media on Tuesday night.
Justin Verlander is an ace, but not what the Mets need right now ✍🏻
With the shock of losing Jacob deGrom to the Texas Rangers fresh in everyone’s minds, there is an urgency for the Mets to quickly acquire starting pitching to shore up a thin starting rotation.
The premier free agent on the market is reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander.
Verlander is unquestionably bound for Cooperstown when his career is over with quite a long list of accomplishments. He is a three-time Cy Young winner, a nine-time All-Star, and a MVP. He’s won the World Series twice with the Astros is currently in a battle with Max Scherzer for active leader in strikeouts.
He is entering free agency coming off a spectacular season that won him the AL Cy Young. In 2022 he was 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 175 innings after missing all of the 2021 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Verlander is unquestionably in the upper echelon of pitchers and would be fun to see him reunite with Scherzer as they compete for strikeout supremacy (Verlander, the active leader, has 3198 career strikeouts, Scherzer 3193).
The problem is, Verlander will be turn 40 in February. Scherzer will turn 39 in July next year coming off a season where he was hampered by a balky oblique.
Make no mistake - Verlander is still an ace and deserves to be paid like one. If the Mets pay it, will they ultimately be comfortable with two older pitchers to lead them to the playoffs and (hopefully) beyond? Scherzer was clearly not himself in the Wild Card round and Verlander has been downright dreadful in his appearances in the World Series, with a career 1-6 record and a 5.63 ERA. Yes that is a small sample size but it is still something that would need to be figured out in his age 40 season.
The Mets going all-in on Verlander could leave them very little flexibility to sign free agents elsewhere, and should either he or Scherzer miss any period of time the team has minimal depth behind them.
And even if they’re healthy, their workload has to be managed - the Mets would also need to find additional, major league depth in order to get 200 innings out of each of these rotation spots, especially if David Peterson is injected into the rotation full-time.
Right now, Carlos Carrasco, Tylor Megill, David Peterson, and Joey Lucchesi. are what’s behind Scherzer in the rotation. Carrasco of course was solid last season but he projects more as a mid-to-back end of the rotation starter at this stage of his career. Megill was dreadful once he returned from his shoulder injury, lacking both velocity and command leading to diminished effectiveness. Peterson was a savior for the Mets pitching staff in 2022 but he can often be erratic and doesn’t throw enough strikes at times, and Lucchesi hasn’t thrown a single major league pitch since mid-2021 after having Tommy John surgery.
It’s not a crew that inspires much confidence.
What’s more, the Mets don’t have much in the pipeline. Matt Allan also underwent Tommy John Surgery and while Thomas Szapucki struggled in his only major league appearance with the team, he was shipped off to the Giants in the Darin Ruf trade and did much better in 13.2 innings in San Francisco as a reliever. Their system would look a lot different if they had a prospect, someone like Kumar Rocker for example, but as it stands now the reserves are a bit thin.
And again, it’s hard to expect either Verlander or Scherzer to give the Mets 200 innings in 2023, which both compounds and complicates their needs in the starting rotation this winter.
Yes, the Mets acknowledged they need to sign at least two starters. They also need another bat should Brandon Nimmo sign elsewhere, and a few arms in the bullpen. Not signing deGrom gives the Mets flexibility, but then tying up that money in a 40-year-old pitcher seems unwise when this team has so many needs to fulfill. Then there’s the possibility of having to fill two more rotation spots next winter when Carrasco is a free agent and Max Scherzer potentially opts-out after 2023.
Of course, the short term flexibility Verlander might offer combined with the fact it’s Justin Verlander makes him a great get and checks the box for their need at the top of the rotation. That’s not in dispute. And, it could be a moot point if Steve Cohen decides price is no issue and signs all the free agents his heart desires.
But until the team reaches that point his money might be better served spread around.
Hot Stove 🔥
Oakland is close to trading catcher Sean Murphy (MLB Network)
Carlos Correa is a top option for the Giants (NBC Bay Area)
The Rockies, Braves and Yankees are interested in trading for Pirates CF Bryan Reynolds (Denver Post, Athletic, Pittsburgh Post Gazette)
The Astros are showing interest in signing Andrew Benintendi (USA Today)
Free agent reliever Zack Britton is in a normal throwing program and should be ready for spring training (Athletic)
The Red Sox have not made a competitive offer to SS Xander Bogaerts (Boston Globe)
The Marlins are willing to listen to offers on everyone not named Sandy Alcántara (Jon Heyman)
The Braves don’t anticipate trading any of the three catchers that are currently on their roster (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
The Dodgers are reportedly interested in slugger J.D. Martinez (MLB.com)
Fred McGriff was elected into the Hall of Fame by the contemporary baseball era committee
With Verlander's age and the +/- $40 million per he'll command, I'd much rather the Mets use that $40 mil to pay a large portion of the salaries to re-sign Chris Bassitt and Brandon Nimmo. Much more bang for the buck.