"The club’s starting pitching reclamation project largely worked in spades last year, but is that an approach that can work year-after-year when that end of the talent pool (and pitching in general) can be so volatile?" That is quite right and I haven't seen any convincing explanation of why Mets leadership was willing to splurge hugely on Soto but then got real sober when it came to pursuing elite starting pitching. How much of a contributor do they expect Soto to be when he's 36-41? But they signed him anyway. It's not much of an explanation to say, "Stearns doesn't like to give long term contracts to 30 year old pitchers". If he's the astute person we're led to believe, he'd adapt to the reality of the pitching market despite his practices from his Brewers days.
I think there’s 2 things at play. First, if Stearns is going to go external, he’s going to wait until the market price is to his liking. Whether it be a trade or a FA, he’s got them ranked and prioritized and won’t flinch until he feels good about the value. Second, he’s made it very clear he wants to leave roster flexibility for the prospects to come up and flourish. Technically, Madrigal was blocking Acuña or Baty, but that’s what the depth chart is for. They are the next man up…unless Stearns can find someone much better at the value he wants.
That being said, it’s no secret the Mets underspent on SP this winter. Flaherty would’ve been the perfect signing, either instead of Montas or in addition to him. We know Stearns won’t give a long term deal to anyone over 30 so Burnes and Fried were out, but there were other options. And still are.
If I had to guess, I'd say Stearns has made the calculation he can get a .500 record and ERA around 4.00 from what he has in-house and doesn't need to spend more money to get it from Quintana.
But that's a guess. And a front-line starter would bring more than that, of course. It's just super challenging math with the 110 percent tax. Even if you get to pay below market -- say, $6 million per WAR -- with the tax you end up at $12.6 million per WAR.
Would it be worth it to bring back Q for one season at a plus-WAR price? Maybe. I mean, he's reliable, and he knows his way around. His career 162-game averages are 10-10 3.74 ERA with a 3.1 WAR. Last year, he was 10-10 3.75 ERA with a 2.5 WAR for us.
So, we'd know what we were getting. I'm thinking Stearns believes he can get that, maybe a lot more, from Megill, Blackburn and Canning without having to open the checkbook again. Unless there's another injury.
The typical Mets fan and probably the management had lower expectations for last year. They didn't expect the magical run they had. The reclamation projects mostly worked out great (Houser petered out). We expect a lot more now. People will be really upset if they don't make the playoffs. .500 would not be acceptable like last year. The Braves and Phils have good rotations.
The Mets have a bunch of question marks with the best option may be out until May. Senga is coming off an injury. Peterson overperformed. Clay never was a permanent starter. Montas was a question mark anyhow will be out for quite some time. Possible sixth starters are now supposed to fill in the back end of the rotation.
The Soto signing sends a message that the team means business. This rotation is something of a joke. We shouldn't still be in hope and dream land. We can't guarantee the fantastic run the team had after falling into a pit. They BARELY got to the playoffs as is. Get another darn starter.
"The club’s starting pitching reclamation project largely worked in spades last year, but is that an approach that can work year-after-year when that end of the talent pool (and pitching in general) can be so volatile?" That is quite right and I haven't seen any convincing explanation of why Mets leadership was willing to splurge hugely on Soto but then got real sober when it came to pursuing elite starting pitching. How much of a contributor do they expect Soto to be when he's 36-41? But they signed him anyway. It's not much of an explanation to say, "Stearns doesn't like to give long term contracts to 30 year old pitchers". If he's the astute person we're led to believe, he'd adapt to the reality of the pitching market despite his practices from his Brewers days.
I think there’s 2 things at play. First, if Stearns is going to go external, he’s going to wait until the market price is to his liking. Whether it be a trade or a FA, he’s got them ranked and prioritized and won’t flinch until he feels good about the value. Second, he’s made it very clear he wants to leave roster flexibility for the prospects to come up and flourish. Technically, Madrigal was blocking Acuña or Baty, but that’s what the depth chart is for. They are the next man up…unless Stearns can find someone much better at the value he wants.
That being said, it’s no secret the Mets underspent on SP this winter. Flaherty would’ve been the perfect signing, either instead of Montas or in addition to him. We know Stearns won’t give a long term deal to anyone over 30 so Burnes and Fried were out, but there were other options. And still are.
If I had to guess, I'd say Stearns has made the calculation he can get a .500 record and ERA around 4.00 from what he has in-house and doesn't need to spend more money to get it from Quintana.
But that's a guess. And a front-line starter would bring more than that, of course. It's just super challenging math with the 110 percent tax. Even if you get to pay below market -- say, $6 million per WAR -- with the tax you end up at $12.6 million per WAR.
Would it be worth it to bring back Q for one season at a plus-WAR price? Maybe. I mean, he's reliable, and he knows his way around. His career 162-game averages are 10-10 3.74 ERA with a 3.1 WAR. Last year, he was 10-10 3.75 ERA with a 2.5 WAR for us.
So, we'd know what we were getting. I'm thinking Stearns believes he can get that, maybe a lot more, from Megill, Blackburn and Canning without having to open the checkbook again. Unless there's another injury.
I've been to Panic City many a time!
The typical Mets fan and probably the management had lower expectations for last year. They didn't expect the magical run they had. The reclamation projects mostly worked out great (Houser petered out). We expect a lot more now. People will be really upset if they don't make the playoffs. .500 would not be acceptable like last year. The Braves and Phils have good rotations.
The Mets have a bunch of question marks with the best option may be out until May. Senga is coming off an injury. Peterson overperformed. Clay never was a permanent starter. Montas was a question mark anyhow will be out for quite some time. Possible sixth starters are now supposed to fill in the back end of the rotation.
The Soto signing sends a message that the team means business. This rotation is something of a joke. We shouldn't still be in hope and dream land. We can't guarantee the fantastic run the team had after falling into a pit. They BARELY got to the playoffs as is. Get another darn starter.