Who and what are the Mets going forward?
Are the Mets rebuilding? Are they contending? Are they doing both in 2026?
I freely admit the above image was generated with AI. And before you lose your marbles, I know he can’t wear no. 20 with Baltimore - that was Frank Robinson’s number.
But oh boy, does that image sting. When it was generated, I wanted to say, “wait, I was kidding!”
24 hours ago, a day after the Mets seemingly bungled their negotiation with Edwin Díaz and saw him walk to the Dodgers for generally similar terms for what they were reportedly offering, they watched as Pete Alonso walked and signed a long-term contract with the Orioles.
The Mets never made an offer. The Mets weren’t interested in making an offer as long as the terms were where they were. They weren’t interested a year ago, they weren’t interested today. They would’ve been perfectly happy seeing Alonso sign with someone else a year ago. I would’ve still been perfectly okay with the Mets signing Alonso to a five-year deal. I predicted originally he was in the five-year area and $150 million and that at this point, the Mets should feel comfortable with that since he will eventually transition away from first base and into a full-time DH role. And, that’s pretty much what he got. The Mets weren’t comfortable with it, and while it’s still upsetting, there really was never a part of me that was truly shocked that he left the Mets. The part that always surprised me was they didn’t value him and his right-handed power bat, something which is hard to find in this sport.
If I filter out the emotion, which is hard to do with Alonso specifically for me but I am trying, I can’t sit here and still believe a five-year contract would’ve ended well for the Mets, even though I would’ve been fine with that for the Mets. It’s just part of the free agency game. I don’t think it will end particularly well for the Orioles, even when Alonso inevitably transitions into their full-time designated hitter.
That’s not because I think Alonso is flawed. Everyone is flawed. For as all-time great as Juan Soto is, he has serious flaws in his game that were a detriment to the team in 2025. The same can be said for Francisco Lindor. That does not at all mean they are not great players and eventual Hall of Fame players. Nor does it mean that just because a player is flawed, they are a part of the problem and not the solution. But, this is a game where even the worst professional player must be multi-talented and at the major league level certainly. Scott Boras is famous for touting many of his players as, “five-tool players,” when many of them are not in reality and otherwise flawed, which is why a good chunk of the contracts he signs at the dollars and years he’s able to get for his client flop, many in the early years.
No, I don’t think Alonso’s deal will age well because people don’t age well. Especially professional athletes who are required to be the best athletic versions of themselves every single day for 250 days per year, whether they’re 16 or 40. The same can be said for Lindor, Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, or any human who is under a long-term and high-salaried contract with a professional sports team in this world.
But it doesn’t mean professional sports organizations, especially the richest one in a particular sport, should be so risk-averse. And certainly, for a team like the Mets, who have these vast riches and resources, as David Stearns put it just on Monday, the Mets should be able to sign free agents, retain their own stars who are still good, take some risks in those signings, and build the team out in their vision and brand at the same time and then spend around and/or develop around the future deficiency of a present-day free agent contract.
Once again, this is what the Dodgers have done. Yeah, they seemingly sign everyone. They get creative with the structure of their free agent contracts, they make seemingly one-sided trades every winter and summer, they get to the playoffs and win championships with all of that working in their favor. But they’re able to do that while doing a stunning job in their organization-building process, routinely developing prospects who can not only graduate to the big leagues but can be impactful pieces in their trades to procure other assets, retaining their own stars when warranted, and building a culture which is seemingly both unmatched and irresistible. Yeah, the climate and lifestyle of Southern California works pretty well for the elites too, and that’s something neither New York team can offer anyone, unfortunately.
The point is, the Dodgers can walk and chew gum at the same time. They can roster-build for the present while maintaining a long-term strategy. They can identify free agents and players in trade who fit what they’re trying to accomplish while cultivating players using the vision and architecture put forth by Andrew Friedman. So can the Yankees, for that matter, even though they haven’t won a championship in 16 years (but have won five more than the Mets have since 1986).
And, they operate under the same media pressure as both New York teams do. Yet, it’s one of the three that can never seem to get it right.
Time and time again, regardless of the owner, general manager, field manager, coaching staff, stars, and duds on the roster, we have seen the Mets tear the whole thing down and start over again. It happened in 1992, 1993, 1996, 2003/2004, 2010, it happened again in 2017, then again in 2021, 2023, and now today. And that’s just the last 30-ish years. In today’s case, the Mets have parted ways with three high-priced stars. Stearns has imploded the roster from the inside out, turning the Mets into a supernova, that which ultimately becomes a dead star. The Mets went from seemingly “in on everyone” as was suggested by endless reports throughout the industry to basically uninterested in anyone in a span of 72 hours since. There were ideas floated in the lobby of the winter meetings that the Mets are volleying the notion of having Jeff McNeil—someone who seemed certain to be traded even a week ago—platoon at first base with Paul Goldschmidt, an aging, year-to-year free agent who is a shell of the player he was as recently as two and three years ago, to replace Alonso at first base.
Price seems to matter now, as Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday night. Their approach with Díaz matters, their risk-averse approach in free agency and Alonso specifically matters. And they matter because of what it means - this is not the behavior of a front office looking to seriously contend in the immediate term, if you ask me. Clubs that want to contend reel in their big fish, as they did with Soto last winter when it was clear they were in win-now mode.
Names such as the defense-first Brenton Doyle have emerged as possibilities for the Mets, as well as the aging star but plus-defender Willson Contreras (he’s the best fit at first base, at this point anyway), the catcher-turned-first baseman for the Cardinals, who could arguably become defense-first himself as he enters his age-34 season in 2026. There’s also some reported interest in Cardinals OF Lars Nootbar. There are some connections between the Mets and Robert Suárez to replace Díaz, but I am not seeing a whole lot there at the moment.
Now, I am not going to sit here and get hung up on the names listed above. Yeah, these aren’t the gold-plated stars we are accustomed to seeing the Mets have interest in these days. I am not even going to get into how good or not they are right now, either. Most people who read this newsletter can deduct that on their own today.
No, it’s more about what it means and it starts with some simple math.
Alonso was worth 3.6 fWAR in 2025. He had his best season since his 2019 rookie year. If the Mets replace him with Contreras’s 2.8 fWAR at first base, there’s still nearly a full win’s worth of space missing, not to mention the fact that thinking Contreras is adequate protection for Soto is just laughable.
Nimmo was worth 3 fWAR in 2025. Nootbar and Doyle were a combined 1.2 fWAR in 2025.
I am not going to even bother evaluating the Díaz situation because there’s no end that can justify the means when it comes to replacing the best closer in baseball.
The point is, sure, Contreras, Doyle, and Nootbar were worth a combined 4 fWAR in 2025, which exceeds that of Alonso. They’re also better defensively in that scenario, which is fun too.
But teams that are contending don’t let people like Alonso go and then try and replace their value spread over multiple positions. No, for that is what rebuilding teams do. Contenders go get the players they need, they go and fill the void with assets capable of doing so. They are not passive in their approach. They are willing to take some risks on the long side of the contract, except for the flaws in one star and try to make them up in another. They try to maximize value at each position and, in the case of Alonso, add value around that singular player.
And if price matters, why would they be interested in Suárez? He is unquestionably going to score a three-year deal for similar money that Devin Williams got, which would just look absurd for the Mets after playing cute games with Díaz over a three-year term.
Look, I am game for anything at this point. I fully acknowledge the fact that outside of what is now proving to be an accidentally good team for four months in 2024, the Mets have not done a whole lot of winning over the last decade, or 15 years, or 40 years for that matter. I get that the Mets had a lot of money and time invested in this core group, and over the last four seasons specifically, things have generally not worked with them. Many have called for the Mets to blow up this core for a few years now, and that’s totally fine. I have never been married to any individual player, whether that was Alonso, Nimmo, Díaz, Soto, Lindor or even David Wright. That has nothing to do with them personally, especially Wright who I was very fortunate to know during his career with the Mets. It has and always will be about the good of the team for me regardless of who comes and goes.
But think about this for a moment.
Let’s say there are in fact big acquisitions are coming. Let’s say they aren’t rebuilding, retooling, transitioning, or whatever word you want to use to describe what you know you are thinking for the plan ahead in 2026, even if you don’t want to admit it. Let’s say they sign Bellinger, maybe trade for a Fernando Tatís, Jr. type, they get in on Alex Bregman, trade for Freddy Peralta or Tarik Skubal or whatever.
We are asking for the Mets, who can’t field a team today, to fill all of their holes meaningfully, build legit depth, have the players who are still here perform as expected and/or bounce back from bad years in 2025 in some cases, for all of that to come together from a chemistry perspective, and for all of them to play well and play well together.
All with literally a brand new coaching staff coming in.
They’re not a Skubal away, or a Tatís away, or a Bellinger away anyway. As currently constructed they shouldn’t even consider these kinds of trades.
What are the odds of all of that happening? Seriously - what contender, inclusive of the Yankees which has made no meaningful move to date this winter, cannot at least field a team right now for 2026?
We can hope all we want - but as the owner has said before, hope isn’t a strategy.
I am not saying the Mets are going to camp as currently constructed in eight weeks, but they need to do a lot at this point just to have nine players who can start on any team and complete a nine inning game, not to mention contend in 2026. That’s just the new reality without known quantities in Alonso and Díaz specifically, two of the best players at their position despite their flaws.
It would’ve been a whole lot easier to go into the rest of the off-season and understand the direction of the franchise with those two pieces in place.
Now, if you want to have faith in Stearns’ and Cohen’s ask that people be patient and there’s a lot of off-season left, that’s fine. That is certainly fair - we are around 60 days away from pitchers and catchers, so yes there’s a lot of time and the Mets are unquestionably going to get people for the roster. And, if you want to take the position that this team can contend given the current state of affairs, what’s required for this rotation, the outfield, first base, and the bullpen, that’s fine too. It certainly feels better to think that way.
But I am never one to bake myself in fantasy. For better or for worse.
I have seen players come and go for years at this point, I have seen dugout staffs turnover time and time again, front offices turn over time and time again, and even seen the Mets transition ownership to the richest one in the sport. I have listened and learned how front offices build teams, build rosters, and build philosophies, and none of it takes 60 days, or 365 days for that matter. It doesn’t mean an organization can’t have a good enough team on the field to be interesting and entertaining while they do all of these things, especially when there’s a 12-team field and 84 wins - as was the case in 2025 - can be enough to at least be a playoff team in some years.
And, I think the Mets can do that for 2026 if everything breaks right.
The Mets have unquestionably spent on free agents in recent years. Like, a lot. That cannot be taken away from this club or diminished. They have put out one record payroll after another, signed the biggest free agent contract ever, gave the highest AAV to a first baseman ever, gave Lindor a bonanza, signed both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander to the highest AAVs for a pitcher ever. I can’t stand it when people say the Mets are cheap and Stearns is cheap. Can’t. Stand. It.
But they haven’t been able to do that and grow out their organizational philosophy and strategy properly together, which is why we are at this point today. Maybe these are the first days of that actually happening?
Maybe Stearns went to his owner and said, “OK your way sucked, now it’s time to do it my way.”
If that’s the case, that’s great and I am willing to be patient as that process evolves. But, not just as someone who covers the team and has covered the team in one form or another for 17 years straight, but as a fan as well, I’d like to know what the deal is so I know what to say here, on social media, and in public in general. That’s just who I am as a person - I strongly value communication and transparency the same way others value it in me in all walks of life, whether it’s good news or bad news. It’s not a one way street. I am not saying I am entitled to anything from the Mets, nor is anyone else. It’s just how my brain operates.
Until I and we all know what the deal is, this is where I am at personally with all of this.
With the Mets needing to build a new core and wanting to create numerous runways for prospects to come to the big leagues, and looking real short-term in free agents and trying to spread value and home runs and on-base around the field rather than building that around foundational players, I am forced to believe this is going to be a transition year at best and a possible rebuild, albeit an expensive one and hopefully a short one. Until proven otherwise.
That word is forbidden in these parts. Although I don’t know why. The Cardinals have been very transparent about it over the last year and in recent weeks in particular, and the fans are pretty ok with it in large measure, presumably because the club has been transparent about it. The Mets of 2010-2013 never actually used the word, and numerous front office officials from that time - both publicly and privately - would deny they were doing that even when it was painfully obvious that those years were rebuilding years. A lot of people didn’t accept it because, I assume anyway, they never actually said it.
Thankfully, the Mets have an abundance of young pitching, which we have seen in a brief glimpse. The Mets of 2010-ish didn’t have players this close - they had only just drafted Harvey, deGrom was buried in Port St. Lucie rehabbing from Tommy John Surgery, as was Matz. So, that’s a BIG difference here. Nolan McLean looks legit, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat are also close and look legit but need some polishing. They have more pitchers like Jonathan Santucci flourishing quickly in the minor leagues as well. This is a rich farm system which is already starting to blossom, and we haven’t even mentioned the promise of Ryan Clifford, AJ Ewing, Jacob Reimer, Carson Benge, Jett Williams, and many more. Stearns deserves a lot of credit for quickly building the club’s farm system as the top-rated system in the game today. And if this is navigated correctly, especially on the mound, the rebound can be quick for this franchise if they are in fact rebuilding. They won’t all work out because they never do. Just look back at Mets history to the Jacob deGrom/Matt Harvey/Noah Syndergaard/Steven Matz era (and, it was Rafael Montero who was supposed to be in the rotation, not deGrom, if you recall). But even if a fraction of them do, the Mets will be great very soon regardless of who they acquire in the next 60 days.
But, prove me wrong. I’ll happily take the loss if this isn’t a transition or a rebuild. I’ll happily take this loss shamelessly. For as a writer and as a fan combined, all I have ever cared about is for the Mets to win and to be able to share that joy with all of you.
In the end, I am still that kid sitting at Shea Stadium in the upper deck in 1985. I am just very fortunate to have a platform to share my thoughts about this team daily, to have come to know people over the years who have been able to educate me on how all of this works and why, and an audience that is willing to listen and share in that same hope.
But, I am still waiting…