Where the Mets might stand in their pursuit of Juan Soto

There's a "sense" Soto could sign a new deal before the Winter Meetings, which takes place in December

What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎

• Someone would have to blow Juan Soto away with an offer to pry him from the Yankees, who could sign before the Winter Meetings (SNY)

• Keith Hernandez’s 22-year-old cat, Hadji, passed away last week (X)

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Rumor Mill 💨

• The Phillies could be looking to trade 3B Alec Bohm (ESPN)

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The ultimate question for Juan Soto will be… ✍️

USA Today Sports

There’s a lot of speculation out there about Juan Soto.

There are eight teams reportedly in the game on Soto. Some believe Soto wants to stay with the Yankees and will therefore presumably use everyone else as leverage to negotiate a new deal. Others believe Soto will go to the highest bidder. Others are saying it’s really going to come down to the Mets and Yankees. Some believe the Blue Jays and Red Sox are serious contenders for his services.

The truth is, nobody really knows. I am not even sure Soto and Boras know on this date.

I would assume he has a favorite landing spot, and that favorite landing spot might very well be the Yankees because it’s familiar, it’s a known quantity, they generally win all the time, Aaron Judge is there, there’s a short porch in right and he’s in a hitter-friendly division. And being a hall of fame Yankee has some extra cachet other clubs might not be able to offer, including the Mets, to be fair.

Having said that, I think it is unfair to speculate beyond anything more than what Soto said after the World Series, which was that all teams are in play, and while winning is important (they all say that, but often times that proves to be otherwise in free agency), it sure sounded like money is the primary driver in all of this.

That brings me to the Mets and where they stand in their position in all of this.

Yes, the Mets have the richest owner and regardless of their real-time situation in any given year, the richest owner has the ability to blow the doors off any offer for a player his or her club might want. He’s proven that, whether he’s been right or wrong, whether he’s made good signings or bad.

That’s all well and good.

But that’s not why the Mets are perhaps in the strongest position of any of these eight supposed finalists for Soto’s services.

The Mets just kicked around $100 million of dead money off their books. They are sitting at an estimated $150-160 million in committed payroll for 2025 with a declining number in future seasons after that.

The Yankees, as our competing example, have around $215-225 million in committed payroll for 2025.

Not only do the Mets have the financial might to sign the best free agents available, they have an untold amount of flexibility to stay engaged in a negotiation to a point where it will come down to whether the player they are trying to sign - in this case - Juan Soto - wants to spend the rest of his career with the Mets.

Of course, the Mets can add an extra carrot to the deal and offer opt outs after a few years in the deal, which might be advantageous for both parties. I expect most clubs might need to offer such flexibility. But, that’s just a hunch.

Anyway, let’s just play the game for a moment.

To keep the numbers simple, let’s say the best non-Mets bid for Soto is 13 years, $650 million per year. That’s an average annual value of $50 million a year. I chose that number because I think we all know that’s the minimum number we expect Soto to sign for.

With literally all other teams in the running operating with less payroll flexibility combined with ownership groups who have shown no evidence to operate in the stratosphere the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers are (because, they’ve actually done it, so that’s the proof they will), the Mets are probably operating in the position of the most strength out of any club simply from a fiscal perspective.

So, if the Mets need to go to 13 years, $715 million as a “blow away” offer to land Soto, that doesn’t push the envelope nearly as far for them as it would for the Yankees.

Why? It’s an extra $5 million per year.

In simple terms, without doing anything else in an expensive marketplace, it would increase the Mets current 2025 obligation to $205-215 million, whereas it would increase the Yankees current 2025 obligation to $270-280 million.

In this case, and again it’s not to say its Soto and done for either club, the Mets haven’t even breached the first luxury tax threshold with Soto, whereas it would put the Yankees in the second tier penalty range without doing anything else and without including the multi-year surcharges both clubs would incur.

(You can read about how the luxury tax works here)

To be fair, for a player like Soto, who is a once-in-forever player like Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, certain exceptions have to apply to fundamental payroll practices and every team should want to and be willing to make exceptions for players they are very likely to never produce on their own. So for the Yankees, they can’t worry about what he does to their luxury tax, even if Hal Steinbrenner has said he is endeavoring to get below it.

With their roster, farm system, and their current big league needs, they’re not getting below it, with or without Soto. Neither are the Mets for that matter.

But that doesn’t mean the Yankees would be willing to play a game of poker with Steve Cohen for Soto.

Based on all of the information out there, all of the numbers and what Steinbrenner has said about his club, I do agree with SNY’s Andy Martino that any team might in fact have to blow away Soto with a contract offer to pry him away from the Yankees.

But I also think that’s going to be an easy, no-brainer thing to do for the Mets.

In the end, it’s not going to be about the money. I do believe the Mets want Soto badly, and badly enough to ensure their offer is in safe haven with respect to the competition. I’m not saying I am right or wrong nor am I predicting how this will all play out. But Mr. Cohen has proven time and time again he can and will make the best offer for the top free agents.

The bigger question is, does Juan Soto really want to be a Met?

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Around the League 🚩

• The Pirates are hiring former Astros and D-Backs pitching coach Brent Strom (Pittsburgh Post Gazette)

• Long time veteran Rich Hill is open to pitching in 2025 (USA Today)