Where do the Mets go from here?
After missing out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, how and where can the Mets pivot for help in their starting rotation?
What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎
The Mets did not lose Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the Dodgers due to lack of trying (NY Post)
What are the Mets rotation options now?✍️
Welp.
When news broke late Thursday that Yoshinobu Yamamoto had agreed to a massive contract with the Dodgers, the Mets hopes of having a dynamic offseason were essentially dashed.
There simply is not a pitcher of Yamamoto’s stature, at his age, with his upside, available for the team to pivot to.
The Mets dire need for starting pitching help was glaring after the unit was a tremendous weakness in 2023, and despite missing out on the free-agent they needed most, the team will still need to add at least one starter.
As of this moment New York’s rotation currently looks like this:
Kodai Senga
Jose Quintana
Luis Severino
Adrian Houser
Tylor Megill
José Buttó and Joey Lucchesi as projected Triple-A depth and David Peterson is recovering from hip surgery, putting him out until at least May if not longer. When you factor in the fact that Quintana missed the entire first half in 2023 and Severino perpetually deals with injury concerns, it’s easy to conclude that this unit is just far too vulnerable and thin.
So, now that we know Yamamoto is not coming, who can the Mets pivot to?
Let’s look at four pitchers that could conceivably make sense.
Blake Snell
When’s the last time a 31-year-old two-time Cy Young award winner was actively available on the open market and was not considered the top free-agent starter?
Snell has won Cy Young awards in both leagues, has two ERA titles under his belt, and has consistently been one of the better lefties in the game. He’s also going to command a massive contract, which could be more of a risk than you’d think.
The rub on Snell has always been that he’s never put up high inning totals, reaching 180 frames only twice. He also issues a lot of walks, which has helped to limit his innings totals. Even in today’s age of bullpen usage, having your ‘ace’ consistently go only five innings seems untenable—especially for the salary that would be involved here.
Jordan Montgomery
Montgomery is another veteran southpaw, who while he isn’t nearly the big name Snell is, he may be every bit as valuable. He’s pitched for three teams since the beginning of 2022 but has been stellar for all of them, and he owns a lifetime 3.68 ERA in 140 career starts. Montgomery just helped Texas win the World Series, and would obviously represent an upgrade on what the Mets currently have in the middle of their rotation.
But Montgomery - who projects as a no. 3 starter - directly compares to Carlos Rodón, meaning he could hit the $150 million mark over a long-term contract this winter. It would seem as though the Mets have an appetite for something like that with Montgomery.
Shota Imanaga
Perhaps the Mets can find pitching help from Japan after all.
Imanaga does not come with nearly the fanfare Yamamoto would have, but he would still be a fun addition. The veteran left-hander was phenomenal in eight seasons with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, and has always delivered a fantastic K/BB ratio. The issue here—as it would’ve been with Yamamoto—is having a second Japanese pitcher in the rotation could force the team to pivot to a six man starting staff, at least early in the season.
Lucas Giolito
Giolito has always felt to me like the most likely fallback option should the Mets’ Yamomoto pursuit fail. After back-to-back disappointing seasons, it’s easy to view a potential Giolito addition as a Wilpon-esque move. But the big righty is still only 29-years-old, and prior to his recent struggles he was one of the best pitchers in the American League for three years running. Giolito screams low risk potentially high reward, especially on a shorter-term deal.
Hot Stove 🔥
The Nationals signed left-handed first baseman Lewin Diaz to a minor league deal (ESPN)
Former heralded cathing prospect Francisco Mejia joined the Angels on a minor league pact
These 4 pitchers are all plausible pivots for the Mets, but Snell and Montgomery are highly unlikely. I think since they are the next best pitchers out there after the “Yama Drama”, the asking price will be higher than what the Mets are willing to pay. Additionally, what wasn’t mentioned in the piece, is that Snell would cost the Mets draft picks since he has a qualifying offer from SD. This flies in the face of everything the Mets are trying to do by building a strong, sustainable farm system.
Imanaga and Giolito certainly seem like they make more sense along with short term deals for pitchers like Ryu, Clevinger, Montas, Lorenzen, Paxton, Woodruff (maybe). These are less than exciting but if Stearns can patchwork enough of these types of pitchers together in a thoughtful approach, using his brilliant analytical mind, the Mets could be good enough where the sum is greater than its individual parts.
The Mets should sign Blake Snell. He’ll be expensive but worth it. He’s an elite pitcher and by far their best option.