Insightful piece. Thanks for this. I’ve never heard of RE24. Is this a new metric or have I just been missing it? Situational hitting was a big gap for the Mets in ‘25. Our eyes told us this and RE24 proves it. Hopefully the new hitting coach can make some adjustments to their approaches. That said, I bet the Mets RE24 was exceptional in 2024, even without Soto anchoring the lineup. Same coaches…
RE24 has been around since 2008, but it's definitely not one you'd have heard of unless you went looking for it; I wasn't even aware of it until this past season. Thanks for pointing out that I totally forgot to add the Mets' team stat for context; that's updated now, but I'll add it here so you don't have to go scrolling back through the piece. The Mets' team RE24 of 59.63 was good for seventh-best in MLB; however, that number paced quite a bit behind the Dodgers (96.26) and the Blue Jays (81.24) which makes sense given recent history but also just looking at how each lineup operated throughout the season. The Dodgers and Jays were also second and third, respectively, in RBIs, and second/fourth in runs scored, matching their run expectancy numbers...the Mets were ninth in RBI and 10th in runs scored.
TL;DR, the Mets were close, but there's another level they need to tap into to break into that top-5 run expectancy/creation tier in 2026.
Very interesting piece and it takes gonads to suggest an alternative to Alonso, even if proposed as a thought experiment. It's a pleasure to read a writer that doesn't jump on the in vogue "run prevention" bandwagon. I wouldn't go over 4 years for Alonso. Bet you 5 years from now Alonso is hitting .205. Now, friend Buskirk, yer back to blathering "incredible"...3 times. Have pity on my sensitive ears and try "impressive", "astonishing", "remarkable", etcetera.
I love to look at all the numbers but one thing always jumps at me with all the number crunching. 3, 5 and 7 game series are different animals than 162. And as we have seen time and again with the Mets, you cannot get passed the 162 to the 3, 5, 7 post season without excelling at usually a couple of things. Either great starting and bullpen, or great starting and hitting, or great bullpen and hitting. The defense is sort of a tell all equation on the starting and the bullpen, over 162 they can make a 95 win capable pitching staff an 85 win, and vice versa. In a short series it takes just the wrinkle of a starting pitcher who had not pitched more than 14 major innings in September of 2025 and that pitcher turned the tides of 3 series. Without Yesavage it is reasonable to say, they Jays lose to the Yankees or at minimum to Seattle. Let alone he just absolutely crushed the Dodgers in an all time rookie start. The Mets have to be better at balancing their runs, but I don't see how swapping Alonso's 2025 RE24 for Naylor's 2025 accomplishes that. Here are their career year by year there
Alonso
2019: 44.37
2020: 0.20
2021: 22.89
2022: 40.05
2023: 17.91
2024: 13.08
2025: 27.63
Naylor
2019: 3.12
2020: -6.41
2021: -8.04
2022: 14.41
2023: 23.37
2024: 14.60
2025: 32.89
So is Josh Naylor 25 an outlier? His Apex? Or is he suddenly getting to be top of his position.
Excellent additional context, thank you. You’re totally right that short series (esp. playoff series) are different animals. Really the point of this piece is to provide different angles of analysis for us to consider when moving forward with this roster. Is it a perfect answer? Nope, but I do think it’s interesting food for thought, especially seeing 162 trends holding firm with eventual postseason champions.
Completely agree. Did not mean for my response to come off as a knock on the angle just adding a perspective. Either way the Mets lineup whoever is in it needs to be more like August when it was deep and productive than 4 guys carrying the load. I was looking at teams and their respective RE24 to see if and where there are signs of layered impact. Not easy to find on just a surface level look. One thing for sure, the Mets in 2022 were legitimately 6 deep in that category. But I think that was more or an outlier that I was hoping would be a pattern I could see in various teams.
Don’t worry, didn’t take it as a knock at all 🤝 conversation is good! We need more of it. The way the pitching and hitting performances flipped so drastically at the midway point this season was astonishing to watch: from worst to best with RISP, but with a staff that can’t last longer than 4 IP. Really, they just need more balance everywhere…whatever that means.
Love the article. "Reliable depth and CONSISTENT run support." 👍👍👍 Definitely were lacking both and timely hitting. The Mets would score 8,9,10 runs in some games and lose too many times.
Please in future pieces explain what each of these stats actually means.The metrics are certainly confusing at best and concern me when leaving the heart and head components of an athlete.The age old question.Have we gone too far with the Sabremetrics in today’s baseball .I love chase rates stats which are so critical to every at bat.Hard hit rate as well.Fielders positioning has been great enhanced with each defender now carrying a cheat sheet in his back pocket.Again please give us a cheat sheet for every metric.It would be helpful.Thanks very much.
Hoerner is a super interesting play I never considered, but that feels like a much more palatable rental situation than, say, trading three top prospects for one guaranteed year of a certain lefty. Very comparable player profiles, and McNeil would give the Cubs a bit of extra outfield flexibility on the utility side while we'd get yet another bump in the base stealing department...if McNeil had played a full season, their 2025 stat lines would be even more identical than they already are, and they're damn close as it is.
Mebbe your right but many of the WS championships or games won have been by one swing. Would you feel better needing a run against Mason Miller by one swing or several to push the tying or winning run across the plate? I’m for the long ball all day in this situation. Pete must come back. Keith Hernandez was just on a podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heymen and said the Mets positively need Pete back. Which lends even more credence to what you just said too not to mention Pete was our most clutch hitter all season.
I saw that interview, and I agree with Keith wholeheartedly; my thought experiment is more about showing the different things the front office needs to consider when approaching lineup construction if they want to take meaningful steps forward, and that probably means looking at things more holistically.
I used Pete as my example because he's our most prominent FA case, but it's definitely very much a "replacing Giambi in the aggregate" conversation, as there could never be a perfect Pete replacement. Still, I think the key flaw in your Miller hypothetical is that it's a bit devoid of context: are the bases empty with two outs, or loaded with one? Are the runners at the corners, or a ghost runner on second? Each situation is going to have a different run expectancy associated with it, and that's where the benefit of something like RE24 comes in.
Pete was the most clutch hitter in baseball last year, yet he and Naylor both delivered the same number of high-leverage and two-out RBI in 2025; Naylor was also more reliable in two-out situations with runners on, striking out half as many times as Pete while providing just as many hits and swapping a few runs for stolen bases. So, the question instead of "can we replace Pete" becomes "is there an argument to be made that we gain more value outside the box by bringing in a different player profile than we would if we stayed put."
Nothing definitive for sure, but super interesting to mull over and rant about for a while :)
My Miller example was nobody on down by one in playoffs situation. None of that ghost runner BS. Real baseball. Close it out they win. Score a run the game goes on. I’m sick of Manfred ruining the game. I’m ok with the new auto ball/strike coming. Hate the ghost runner but understand it during the season as it saves bullpens but can we modify it please? Like use the ghost runner after the 11th-12th inning? Hate that pitchers only get 3 shots at a pick off. It feels like stupid made up rules you had in the backyard. He sucks!
I very, very strongly agree about the ghost runner not showing up until the 11th-12th; 10th-inning baseball is barely extra innings imo. No ghost runner in the postseason is exactly how it should be, and Manfred doesn't even get full credit for that decision. I also agree on the pickoff limit; I get that we want to incentivize base stealing, but it also removes a whole psychological element from the pitcher's game. At a certain point, a chunk of the recent changes started to feel almost purely arbitrary.
Also, love the Costanza pic when he and Jerry grew mustaches to take a vacation from themselves. George “you gotta get a job!” Still my favorite show of all time and I’m sure I can still recite just about any episode word for word.
Insightful piece. Thanks for this. I’ve never heard of RE24. Is this a new metric or have I just been missing it? Situational hitting was a big gap for the Mets in ‘25. Our eyes told us this and RE24 proves it. Hopefully the new hitting coach can make some adjustments to their approaches. That said, I bet the Mets RE24 was exceptional in 2024, even without Soto anchoring the lineup. Same coaches…
RE24 doesn't necessarily speak to situational hitting, it speaks to nuances of situational opportunities.
Alonso w/ RISP in 2025 - 309/401/634 & 87 RBI
Naylor w/RISP in 2025 - 264/325/405 & 66 RBI
RE24 has been around since 2008, but it's definitely not one you'd have heard of unless you went looking for it; I wasn't even aware of it until this past season. Thanks for pointing out that I totally forgot to add the Mets' team stat for context; that's updated now, but I'll add it here so you don't have to go scrolling back through the piece. The Mets' team RE24 of 59.63 was good for seventh-best in MLB; however, that number paced quite a bit behind the Dodgers (96.26) and the Blue Jays (81.24) which makes sense given recent history but also just looking at how each lineup operated throughout the season. The Dodgers and Jays were also second and third, respectively, in RBIs, and second/fourth in runs scored, matching their run expectancy numbers...the Mets were ninth in RBI and 10th in runs scored.
TL;DR, the Mets were close, but there's another level they need to tap into to break into that top-5 run expectancy/creation tier in 2026.
Very interesting piece and it takes gonads to suggest an alternative to Alonso, even if proposed as a thought experiment. It's a pleasure to read a writer that doesn't jump on the in vogue "run prevention" bandwagon. I wouldn't go over 4 years for Alonso. Bet you 5 years from now Alonso is hitting .205. Now, friend Buskirk, yer back to blathering "incredible"...3 times. Have pity on my sensitive ears and try "impressive", "astonishing", "remarkable", etcetera.
My thesaurus definitely sat on the shelf for this one, Joel, I’ll give you that.
I love to look at all the numbers but one thing always jumps at me with all the number crunching. 3, 5 and 7 game series are different animals than 162. And as we have seen time and again with the Mets, you cannot get passed the 162 to the 3, 5, 7 post season without excelling at usually a couple of things. Either great starting and bullpen, or great starting and hitting, or great bullpen and hitting. The defense is sort of a tell all equation on the starting and the bullpen, over 162 they can make a 95 win capable pitching staff an 85 win, and vice versa. In a short series it takes just the wrinkle of a starting pitcher who had not pitched more than 14 major innings in September of 2025 and that pitcher turned the tides of 3 series. Without Yesavage it is reasonable to say, they Jays lose to the Yankees or at minimum to Seattle. Let alone he just absolutely crushed the Dodgers in an all time rookie start. The Mets have to be better at balancing their runs, but I don't see how swapping Alonso's 2025 RE24 for Naylor's 2025 accomplishes that. Here are their career year by year there
Alonso
2019: 44.37
2020: 0.20
2021: 22.89
2022: 40.05
2023: 17.91
2024: 13.08
2025: 27.63
Naylor
2019: 3.12
2020: -6.41
2021: -8.04
2022: 14.41
2023: 23.37
2024: 14.60
2025: 32.89
So is Josh Naylor 25 an outlier? His Apex? Or is he suddenly getting to be top of his position.
Excellent additional context, thank you. You’re totally right that short series (esp. playoff series) are different animals. Really the point of this piece is to provide different angles of analysis for us to consider when moving forward with this roster. Is it a perfect answer? Nope, but I do think it’s interesting food for thought, especially seeing 162 trends holding firm with eventual postseason champions.
Completely agree. Did not mean for my response to come off as a knock on the angle just adding a perspective. Either way the Mets lineup whoever is in it needs to be more like August when it was deep and productive than 4 guys carrying the load. I was looking at teams and their respective RE24 to see if and where there are signs of layered impact. Not easy to find on just a surface level look. One thing for sure, the Mets in 2022 were legitimately 6 deep in that category. But I think that was more or an outlier that I was hoping would be a pattern I could see in various teams.
Don’t worry, didn’t take it as a knock at all 🤝 conversation is good! We need more of it. The way the pitching and hitting performances flipped so drastically at the midway point this season was astonishing to watch: from worst to best with RISP, but with a staff that can’t last longer than 4 IP. Really, they just need more balance everywhere…whatever that means.
Love the article. "Reliable depth and CONSISTENT run support." 👍👍👍 Definitely were lacking both and timely hitting. The Mets would score 8,9,10 runs in some games and lose too many times.
Please in future pieces explain what each of these stats actually means.The metrics are certainly confusing at best and concern me when leaving the heart and head components of an athlete.The age old question.Have we gone too far with the Sabremetrics in today’s baseball .I love chase rates stats which are so critical to every at bat.Hard hit rate as well.Fielders positioning has been great enhanced with each defender now carrying a cheat sheet in his back pocket.Again please give us a cheat sheet for every metric.It would be helpful.Thanks very much.
I agree that adding Naylor and letting go of Alonso is good.
I would also try to trade for Nico Hoerner to play 2B for one year, and trading McNeil (plus cash).
Hoerner is a super interesting play I never considered, but that feels like a much more palatable rental situation than, say, trading three top prospects for one guaranteed year of a certain lefty. Very comparable player profiles, and McNeil would give the Cubs a bit of extra outfield flexibility on the utility side while we'd get yet another bump in the base stealing department...if McNeil had played a full season, their 2025 stat lines would be even more identical than they already are, and they're damn close as it is.
Seems to me that more infielders is not a need.
Mebbe your right but many of the WS championships or games won have been by one swing. Would you feel better needing a run against Mason Miller by one swing or several to push the tying or winning run across the plate? I’m for the long ball all day in this situation. Pete must come back. Keith Hernandez was just on a podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heymen and said the Mets positively need Pete back. Which lends even more credence to what you just said too not to mention Pete was our most clutch hitter all season.
I saw that interview, and I agree with Keith wholeheartedly; my thought experiment is more about showing the different things the front office needs to consider when approaching lineup construction if they want to take meaningful steps forward, and that probably means looking at things more holistically.
I used Pete as my example because he's our most prominent FA case, but it's definitely very much a "replacing Giambi in the aggregate" conversation, as there could never be a perfect Pete replacement. Still, I think the key flaw in your Miller hypothetical is that it's a bit devoid of context: are the bases empty with two outs, or loaded with one? Are the runners at the corners, or a ghost runner on second? Each situation is going to have a different run expectancy associated with it, and that's where the benefit of something like RE24 comes in.
Pete was the most clutch hitter in baseball last year, yet he and Naylor both delivered the same number of high-leverage and two-out RBI in 2025; Naylor was also more reliable in two-out situations with runners on, striking out half as many times as Pete while providing just as many hits and swapping a few runs for stolen bases. So, the question instead of "can we replace Pete" becomes "is there an argument to be made that we gain more value outside the box by bringing in a different player profile than we would if we stayed put."
Nothing definitive for sure, but super interesting to mull over and rant about for a while :)
My Miller example was nobody on down by one in playoffs situation. None of that ghost runner BS. Real baseball. Close it out they win. Score a run the game goes on. I’m sick of Manfred ruining the game. I’m ok with the new auto ball/strike coming. Hate the ghost runner but understand it during the season as it saves bullpens but can we modify it please? Like use the ghost runner after the 11th-12th inning? Hate that pitchers only get 3 shots at a pick off. It feels like stupid made up rules you had in the backyard. He sucks!
I very, very strongly agree about the ghost runner not showing up until the 11th-12th; 10th-inning baseball is barely extra innings imo. No ghost runner in the postseason is exactly how it should be, and Manfred doesn't even get full credit for that decision. I also agree on the pickoff limit; I get that we want to incentivize base stealing, but it also removes a whole psychological element from the pitcher's game. At a certain point, a chunk of the recent changes started to feel almost purely arbitrary.
Also, love the Costanza pic when he and Jerry grew mustaches to take a vacation from themselves. George “you gotta get a job!” Still my favorite show of all time and I’m sure I can still recite just about any episode word for word.
I’ve felt a very deep spiritual kinship with George Costanza for most of my life, even when he was Assistant to the Enemy’s Traveling Secretary