Great collection of stats and interesting analysis. I'd suggest to Mr. Stearns that he hire Mr. Van Buskirk as a consultant for 125k starting now. A piddling sum relative to what's already been invested. Even if there's someone on staff that's already doing this work, having a new outsider voice is a good idea.
Peterson is in the midst of a bad stretch. Hopefully, he will get out of it.
Yesterday was troubling for other reasons. Diaz had a bad inning. The Mets had a prime chance to get ahead, but didn't. Yet again, they couldn't go ahead in the 9th. Will they ever come back from behind in the 9th? They have also been sloppy the whole Marlins series defensively.
The bullpen, other than Diaz, was overall good. A key run, yes, but that will happen.
The Mets will get to the playoffs. A shorter series will make things easier pitching-wise. But they can't be sloppy, and they have to SOME TIME come back late.
All sliders are not created equal. One guy's weapon is another guy's 2nd, 3rd, 4th option. Lumpimg them together for all pitchers serves no purpose, IMO. Generalizing, just using the eyeball system, I think the problem is control. There are too many uncontested pitches. The staff, again generalizing as a whole, have not nibbled with their breaking pitches, drawing reaches by batters and forcing the dreaded fastball as a catch-up. Where does the team stand in BBs league-wise and how many have figured in runs against? The two kid callups recently threw 8+5=13 one-run walk-less innings ... meaning ... I dunno, are they just better pitchers than the guys on the staff thru August? And just maybe the catchers are calling lousy games. The simple solution is to get better pitchers, says capitaine évident. All IMHO with absolutely no scientific backup. Enjoy this Kodai Senga Sunday, my virtual friends.
No, not all sliders are created equal, but you can say the same for any pitch type. When looking at the Mets' pitch totals month-to-month, fastballs and sliders have been their most thrown pitches all year, whereas sinkers saw their most action of the season, and changeups saw their least (fair enough since it got hit more than ever in July) — all those numbers are indicative of a shift in coaching focus and pitch selection staff-wide. My suggestion is more speaking to the idea of reintroducing a bit more pitch variety and working to induce even more chase/whiffs rather than, as you said above, forcing fastballs.
As for walk rate, the Mets ranked 13th with a 3.96 BB/9 in August; they were also 8th in chase rate at 32.5%. Seeing that they aren't walking hitters at an astronomical rate and are able to generate swings outside the zone tells me that the stuff is there, but the placement and selection are what need to change - that's reinforced by a 62.2% outside contact rate.
Mets pitchers' sinkers and sliders both saw their second-highest chase rates of the season in August, and changeups were swung at out of the zone more than they have been all year. Looking at this data on a grouped level points to team-wide trends that can potentially be latched onto more than it suggests that every pitcher's arsenal should look the same.
Thanks for diving into the stats, but the bottom line is most of the SPs and RP stink. As always: you go as far as your pitching and this staff is not going to cut it. Too many holes to patch. No a championship contender
I'm no longer looking at any game as part of a bigger playoff picture. I'm done with any emotional investment this season beyond being happy or annoyed by the result of any individual game. They are way too inconsistent from day to day. They will most likely grab that last wildcard spot, but they are not going to go deep, so why worry about it? I'm still very excited about what the future can be with this team, but Stearns has got to figure things out with the pitching squad.
I also grapple a lot with investing hope in the team. Just when you think they've turned a corner they score 8 runs yet lose to a mediocre team. When I consider abandoning hope, I imagine Senga and Manea finding their previous selves the way Vientos did and then I'm back to hoping again...
And his most thrown pitch today? His fastball 😭 91% in-zone contact rate today with just two whiffs on 13 swings, making himself at home over the middle. Can’t win with that.
At this point, I’d run full speed with the young guns. Bring up Sproat and have him replace Holmes in the rotation. Let the kids guide us, as it seems our veteran arms can no longer carry the weight.
I'd tell Peterson to skip a turn or 2 to get back on track as he becomes vital to the rest of the season and post season. Bring up Sproat for a turn or two to see what he might add. And finally if I have a man on 3rd with nobody out, the next batters only job is to get that run home. If you are a playoff team you don't score all these runs and lose. As Billy Jean King said in an interview your only focus as an athlete is to do everything necessary to beat your opponent every day, not just 2 or 3 days a week.
Great collection of stats and interesting analysis. I'd suggest to Mr. Stearns that he hire Mr. Van Buskirk as a consultant for 125k starting now. A piddling sum relative to what's already been invested. Even if there's someone on staff that's already doing this work, having a new outsider voice is a good idea.
Peterson is in the midst of a bad stretch. Hopefully, he will get out of it.
Yesterday was troubling for other reasons. Diaz had a bad inning. The Mets had a prime chance to get ahead, but didn't. Yet again, they couldn't go ahead in the 9th. Will they ever come back from behind in the 9th? They have also been sloppy the whole Marlins series defensively.
The bullpen, other than Diaz, was overall good. A key run, yes, but that will happen.
The Mets will get to the playoffs. A shorter series will make things easier pitching-wise. But they can't be sloppy, and they have to SOME TIME come back late.
All sliders are not created equal. One guy's weapon is another guy's 2nd, 3rd, 4th option. Lumpimg them together for all pitchers serves no purpose, IMO. Generalizing, just using the eyeball system, I think the problem is control. There are too many uncontested pitches. The staff, again generalizing as a whole, have not nibbled with their breaking pitches, drawing reaches by batters and forcing the dreaded fastball as a catch-up. Where does the team stand in BBs league-wise and how many have figured in runs against? The two kid callups recently threw 8+5=13 one-run walk-less innings ... meaning ... I dunno, are they just better pitchers than the guys on the staff thru August? And just maybe the catchers are calling lousy games. The simple solution is to get better pitchers, says capitaine évident. All IMHO with absolutely no scientific backup. Enjoy this Kodai Senga Sunday, my virtual friends.
No, not all sliders are created equal, but you can say the same for any pitch type. When looking at the Mets' pitch totals month-to-month, fastballs and sliders have been their most thrown pitches all year, whereas sinkers saw their most action of the season, and changeups saw their least (fair enough since it got hit more than ever in July) — all those numbers are indicative of a shift in coaching focus and pitch selection staff-wide. My suggestion is more speaking to the idea of reintroducing a bit more pitch variety and working to induce even more chase/whiffs rather than, as you said above, forcing fastballs.
As for walk rate, the Mets ranked 13th with a 3.96 BB/9 in August; they were also 8th in chase rate at 32.5%. Seeing that they aren't walking hitters at an astronomical rate and are able to generate swings outside the zone tells me that the stuff is there, but the placement and selection are what need to change - that's reinforced by a 62.2% outside contact rate.
Mets pitchers' sinkers and sliders both saw their second-highest chase rates of the season in August, and changeups were swung at out of the zone more than they have been all year. Looking at this data on a grouped level points to team-wide trends that can potentially be latched onto more than it suggests that every pitcher's arsenal should look the same.
Thanks for diving into the stats, but the bottom line is most of the SPs and RP stink. As always: you go as far as your pitching and this staff is not going to cut it. Too many holes to patch. No a championship contender
That's the thesis!
I'm no longer looking at any game as part of a bigger playoff picture. I'm done with any emotional investment this season beyond being happy or annoyed by the result of any individual game. They are way too inconsistent from day to day. They will most likely grab that last wildcard spot, but they are not going to go deep, so why worry about it? I'm still very excited about what the future can be with this team, but Stearns has got to figure things out with the pitching squad.
Very excited about the future. Can they just make that their official slogan?
I also grapple a lot with investing hope in the team. Just when you think they've turned a corner they score 8 runs yet lose to a mediocre team. When I consider abandoning hope, I imagine Senga and Manea finding their previous selves the way Vientos did and then I'm back to hoping again...
Kodai Senga's first inning : 24 pitches ... on;y 11 strikes and only 1 of 5 batters with a first pitch strike
And his most thrown pitch today? His fastball 😭 91% in-zone contact rate today with just two whiffs on 13 swings, making himself at home over the middle. Can’t win with that.
How about a rotation headed by McLean, Tong and Sprout in September?
At this point, I’d run full speed with the young guns. Bring up Sproat and have him replace Holmes in the rotation. Let the kids guide us, as it seems our veteran arms can no longer carry the weight.
I'd tell Peterson to skip a turn or 2 to get back on track as he becomes vital to the rest of the season and post season. Bring up Sproat for a turn or two to see what he might add. And finally if I have a man on 3rd with nobody out, the next batters only job is to get that run home. If you are a playoff team you don't score all these runs and lose. As Billy Jean King said in an interview your only focus as an athlete is to do everything necessary to beat your opponent every day, not just 2 or 3 days a week.