What is the realistic ceiling and floor for the 2024 Mets?
What is the realistic ceiling and floor for the 2024 Mets?
The Mets beat the Marlins on Friday night thanks to homers from Alonso & Álvarez. Plus, a look at what to expect this year.
What’s up with the Mets? 🍎
The Mets defeated the Miami Marlins 3-1 on Friday night (Box)
C Francisco Álvarez blasted his third home run of spring training
1B Pete Alonso also homered in the win with his second dinger of spring training
SS José Iglesias singled to score Álvarez in the second inning. Iglesias also released a single on Spotify and YouTube, which is racking up the hits (MLB.com)
RHP Luis Severino had another impressive outing, throwing three shutout innings with four strikeouts
Newly installed LED lighting will help to enhance the in-game experience at Citi Field in 2024 (Meet At The Apple Podcast)
Injury Updates 🏥
Jeff McNeil (bicep soreness) will begin hitting again on Saturday. The infielder was expected to play defense only in a minor league game on Friday
Roster Moves 🗞️
OF Taylor Kohlwey, RHP Chad Smith and LHP Nate Lavender were reassigned to minor league camp
OF Alex Ramírez was optioned to Double-A
RHP Grant Hartwig and LHP Josh Walker were optioned to Triple-A
Today’s Game 🗓️
Match-up: Mets (6-5) at Cardinals (4-6)
Where: Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium - Jupiter, Florida
Starters: LHP Sean Manaea (0-1, 10.13 ERA) vs. LHP Steven Matz (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
When: 1:05 PM EST
Where To Watch: Bally Sports Midwest (MLB App)
Evaluating the ceiling and floor for the 2024 New York Mets
With Opening Day inching closer and closer, it does feel that most Mets fans have accepted that 2024 will be a transitional year for the team.
Now, that isn’t very exciting or sexy, but it is just plain reality at this point.
While president of baseball operations David Stearns has consistently stressed that making a run at the playoffs is the goal, the actions of the front office suggest that going through the motions and continuing to bolster and develop the farm system is the actual real aim.
However, there are some out there who believe in the school of thought that the Mets could actually be sneaky good this upcoming season.
So, what is a realistic ceiling and floor for the 2024 Mets as currently constituted? We’ll start with the negative and go upwards from there.
In terms of the floor, the worst-case scenario is pretty grim for the current roster. There is a heck of a lot of boom or bust potential with that starting rotation, and a lot will need to go right in order for the pitching to hold up over a full 162 game regular season. That is asking a lot considering Kodai Senga will miss the beginning of the year due to injury. If Senga takes a while to come back, or even settle into a groove, then that could become a major problem. The same applies to star closer Edwin Díaz, who missed all of 2023 with a torn patellar tendon. There is no guarantee that Díaz will go right back to his superhero self of 2022 after such a devastating injury. He may need some time to get back to that elite level. And it doesn’t help that behind Díaz, there are a slew of question marks in that bullpen. There is no real sure thing and that could prove to be a big, big problem, just as it was in 2023.
As for the rest of the rotation, everything will need to break right in terms of Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, José Quintana, Adrian Houser and whoever wins the final rotation spot staying healthy and providing enough quality starts. Again, it is asking a lot of Severino to stay healthy for an entire year given his recent history, and we’re almost approaching miracle territory when it comes to hoping Manaea, Quintana, Houser and Tylor Megill / José Buttó / Joey Lucchesi all string together enough quality starts to keep this rotation afloat.
The Mets are going to need literally everything to break right when it comes to pitching. If it does, and a Moneyball-inspired bullpen gets the job done, then maybe a Wild Card spot could be up for grabs. However, if Senga and Díaz struggle to hit their previous heights, if Quintana can’t translate his second-half success in 2023 over a full season, if Severino and Manaea continue their recent downward trajectories, and if the bullpen rapidly descends into becoming a hot mess (again), then the prospect of a high lottery pick and second-half prospect debuts could be the only thing to keep Mets fans engaged throughout 2024.
On the hitting side, it goes without saying that Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor will need to continue to lead the way at the plate. Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil will both need to have huge bounce-back years, one of Brett Baty or Mark Vientos will have to step up and take the third base job for themselves, and Harrison Bader will be required to contribute more with the bat while helping with the run prevention game.
Power wasn’t a problem for the Mets in 2023 - they ranked 10th in all of baseball in home runs with 215 - but they will need to be a lot smarter when it comes to manufacturing runs. Consistent production out of the DH spot and from the hot corner is hardly guaranteed - as we’ve painfully discovered over the past couple of seasons - so putting the ball in play more, stealing bases, using speed and athletic ability and taking risks will be key.
Again, I’m confident this team as it is currently constituted will hit enough home runs given that Alonso will be extra-motivated to put together a monster year before hitting free agency and while Francisco Álvarez has looked almost unstoppable at the plate so far in spring training. Nimmo was beginning to add more power to his game in 2023, as well, and he’s already established himself as an excellent leadoff hitter. Lindor is settling into a real leadership role within that clubhouse, and he’s more than capable of achieving another 30/30 season. And you would hope that McNeil can return somewhere close to the kind of consistent offensive production that saw him win the batting title in 2022. And, hey, maybe someone like a Bader or a DJ Stewart will step up and provide an unexpected but welcome offensive boost.
Offensively, this team should be good enough to compete for a Wild Card spot. However, without adding another legit bat to the middle of the lineup - J.D. Martínez is still available, David Stearns - and with too many question marks over how much Marte has left in the tank and whether or not Baty and Vientos are good enough to stick in the big leagues, a Wild Card spot is probably the absolute ceiling for this roster as of right now.
Of course, if the Mets are in the hunt around the trade deadline and decide to trade for a legit starting pitcher like Dylan Cease, as well as a true power bat, then the outlook could look a heck of a lot brighter.
However, I can only go on what is in front of me right now and, given the plethora of question marks in the rotation and the bullpen, not to mention the sizable holes in that lineup at key positions, I’d argue the floor isn’t incredibly high and the ceiling is low as of right now. There is just too much boom or bust potential with this team, too many ifs and just too many miracles waiting to happen. That is hardly a tried-and-tested recipe for success.
Of course, I could be proven wrong - and I hope I am - and this team shocks everyone and has the kind of gritty underdog story that the sports world just loves to churn out here and there. There are enough good players on that roster that can raise the ceiling of what is possible in 2024 considerably. As for the floor, if nothing breaks right and the biggest question marks remain just that, then I fear a long grind of a season where the minor leagues and the lottery odds generate a lot more interest and intrigue than the major league club.
Just too much has to go right for the Mets in order to even accomplish a solid season in 2024. And expecting everything to go perfectly as a Mets fan is almost as stupid as believing Aaron Rodgers was going to save the Jets.
Around The League 🚩
The Dodgers announced that Mookie Betts will be their shortstop moving forward in 2024. Gavin Lux, who has struggled defensively at short in spring training, will be moved over to second base (MLB.com)
Reds prospect Noelvi Marte has been suspended 80 games for violating MLB’s Joint Drug and Prevention and Treatment program (MLB.com)
Joey Votto finally found a new home. The Canadian agreed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training with the Toronto Blue Jays (ESPN)
Righty Ryne Stanek agreed to a deal with the Mariners (MLB.com)
The White Sox signed right-hander Brad Keller to a minor-league contract with an invite to spring training (FanSided)
Cardinals OF Lars Nootbaar fractured his ribs and will be monitored over the next 10-14 days. He won’t be shut down completely (St. Louis Post-Dispatch)
Free agent DH J.D. Martinez has held talks with the Marlins. It is believed that Martinez is seeking a two-year deal (Miami Herald Sports)
The Red Sox remain in contact with free agent pitcher Jordan Montgomery, but the lefty’s desire for a seven-year deal appears to be a major sticking point (New York Post)