What do the Mets mean by their desire to be "competitive" in 2024?

Also, a list of what the Mets should really be doing with the roster right now in a non-dream world

What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto dined with Steve Cohen, Alex Cohen, David Stearns and Jeremy Hefner at the Cohen residence on Saturday (New York Post)

• The Mets are unlikely to pursue any top-of-the-market starting pitchers if they fail to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Athletic)

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So, what does the word “competitive” mean here? ✍️

Yesterday in The Athletic, Will Sammon discussed the Mets’ path to find starting pitching should the club be unable to sign Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto this winter.

That path, according to Sammon, is unlikely to include any other top shelf free agent starting pitchers, such as Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery and it’s unlikely to result in a trade for such starting pitching.

Instead, Sammon writes the Mets would look for starting pitchers on one or two-year deals to buy them time to 2025, when the free agent market should have a better supply.

There seems to be an uproar about this strategy. The part of that uproar I agree with is that its disappointing the Mets are looking more towards 2025 and 2026 in their roster building plan as they endeavor to build a sustainable pipeline to the major leagues from within.

That’s just general disappointment the Mets will have yet another “if it all breaks right, they can win 85 games” season in 2024.

But the thing is, why is so much (not all, of course) of the public acting surprised?

Since August, there isn’t a soul from within the Mets organization who hasn’t said something along the lines of, “we plan to be competitive in 2024” or, “our odds to win the World Series might be lower at the start of 2024.”

Now, what does the word “competitive” mean in sports?

Well, recall these are the same words Terry Collins would use back in the Brad Eamus and Bernie Madoff era of the Mets. He hoped the Mets would be competitive from 2011-2013 while the club was unofficially rebuilding and aiming for 2014 or 2015, when the likes of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and perhaps Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz would all be in the big league rotation.

Competitive, to me anyway, is a lot different than contending. Competitive is a team like the 2023 Reds or Cubs, teams who were fun and interesting who at times could look like a playoff team but were not the cream that rose to the top after 162 games. Teams that are .500 or a little bit better, not a 90-win or higher team.

Both Billy Eppler and David Stearns have been saying that and level setting those expectations for six months.

This is also precisely what Max Scherzer said was the plan hours before he was traded, it is precisely what Justin Verlander said was the plan hours before he was traded. It connects the publicly-stated blueprint Steve Cohen spoke about in his news conference after the Mets unloaded their players in August. And, it sticks to the publicly-stated blueprint David Stearns spoke about when he was hired.

I remember all of this like it was yesterday. This isn’t inside info, this isn’t the master plan which the Mets have covered up, this isn’t a situation where the Mets are trying to sell us on some nonsense and overhyped expectation the Mets intend to sign everyone again and project to a 95-100 win team again.

It sucks, but it’s nothing new.

But a lot (not all) folks are acting like none of this was ever mentioned and this is some sort of brand new revelation, or the media trying to push some kind of narrative which doesn’t exist and the Mets will actually load up anyway if they can’t sign Yamamoto.

For me, Sammon’s report is totally inline with expectations. It’s in fact not new at all. I was somewhat surprised they were all-in on Yamamoto to begin with and are still in it at this stage of the game.

If anyone wants to interpret the word “competitive” as something different, be my guest but be ready to be disappointed.

Now, why would the Mets make an exception for Yamamoto?

Yamamoto is 25, is viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter and therefore a pitcher that can help them both now and in the short, medium and long-term future. In the manner in which Yamamoto projects in the big leagues, he’s a once-in-a-Haley’s-Comet free agent in that he is so young, so good, and so unique that any club should want this player.

Such few players become free agents at 25, such few players like this become free agents at 25. So, it stands to reason why the Mets - who again have really made no secret what the plan is around here - would want to sign Yamamoto.

Whether Yamamoto wants to sign with the Mets or is even considering the Mets right now is another story. I do think the Mets have a lot going for them in this race, but perhaps not as much as a team like Dodgers have, even over the Yankees (for the moment, anyway).

We will see how that part shakes out in the next week or so.

Now, back to the overriding problem with the Mets.

Look - they doled out $365 million last year to payroll and had a CBT payroll of well over $400 million. They won 75 games. They stunk and they stunk from day one.

Period.

And, there’s a lot of dead money from that dead season still on the books in 2024, to the tune of around $70 million (not sure that includes the manager they fired but I admit I did not do the math this morning).

The strategy didn’t work. Fans finally got what they wanted in an owner who spends and spends and spends, only he clearly mis-spent this time to the highest payroll in the history of the game and then quickly unloaded when that investment went in the tank.

So, should the Mets really do that again, only this time hand out contracts that are longer and even more overvalued to pitchers like Snell and/or Montgomery? How many more wins would that $300 million or whatever they’re going to buy them over the terms of those contracts?

At least the burden of the contracts he did sign with players are off the books in a year (except for Starling Marte). Snell and/or Montgomery would be here for a while and I’d bet both will underperform what they get by a lot.

Now, the Mets do need starting pitching. A lot of it. That is not what I’m saying. What I’m saying they should do is the following right now:

• Convince Pete Alonso this is the place to be, sign him to a long-term deal and make him a Met for life. If they can do this with Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo, it would be an embarrassment if they couldn’t do it with the most prolific homegrown power hitter they’ve ever produced

• Don’t foolishly spend on pitchers who’s best days are probably behind them again, and certainly don’t give up draft picks to sign such pitchers - maybe stick in the one or two-year pool in the starting pitching market this winter instead

• Based on his age, Yamamoto probably still has prime days ahead of him and within the window in which the Mets want to contend, so yes, they should sign him if they can

• Maybe instead of throwing money up into the sky and seeing which starting pitcher (other than Yamamoto) catches it in the pool of starting pitchers, maybe they should do that in the pool of relievers. It will cost less, it will still come in the form of one or two-year contracts, and they could corner the market for relievers at the trade deadline if the team isn’t any good

• Fill the immediate lineup gaps on short-term deals too. That’s achievable with players such as Justin Turner, JD Martínez, maybe Teoscar Hernandez

• Get better at player development (physical and mental), specifically on the pitching front

Again, I know its disappointing to be staring at what could be another fruitless season for the Mets. Blindly and emotionally, even I want Steve Cohen to act mad and pull of a Juan Soto-type deal or to have tried harder for Shohei Ohtani (even though he himself sort of confirmed what we all really knew in that he didn’t want to come to New York).

Even pragmatically, it shouldn’t be this way with the Mets. They haven’t gotten it right at all despite the 101-win team in 2022. It’s been way too long since their last championship, there have been far too many missteps along the way, there have been unpopular decisions which have proven to be mistakes, they’ve been marred by one controversy after the next, the turnover and instability over the last five years in this organization has truly been astounding, and I don’t believe the club has done a whole lot to earn their customer’s trust regardless of the owner and the size of his wallet.

But at least this owner and whoever his subordinate has been over the last six months has been clear about what’s ahead. If a two-year reboot (including 2023) is what’s needed to get it right for 2025 and beyond, fine.

I don’t know if this is going to work, nor do they. The history with this club would suggest it won’t, but history suggests nothing works with the Mets, so why not at least state the plan and stand by it for better or for worse?

For me, I prefer the transparency, I prefer honesty. It is and always has been the best policy. It level sets my expectations for the club, and it offers all of us a goal line for accountability with the organization.

Hold them to this plan if it fails by 2025.

Who knows? Maybe it will actually work this time.

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Hot Stove 🔥

• The Padres are looking to drop below the luxury tax threshold in 2024 (Athletic)

• The Dodgers and Rays completed their big trade, which officially made Tyler Glasnow and Manny Margot members of the Dodgers in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca

• The Giants are showing interest in Shota Imanaga (MLB Network)

• The Mariners are showing interest in signing Rhys Hoskins (MLB Network)