What do the Mets do if Edwin Díaz leaves?

Also - Pete Alonso raked in his first silver slugger award, while Juan Soto took home his sixth

What’s up with the Mets? 🍎

• The Mets extended the qualifying offer of $22.025 million to closer Edwin Díaz

• Both Pete Alonso and Juan Soto earned Silver Slugger awards for their outstanding offensive seasons

• The Mets are reportedly hiring former Padres third base coach Tim Leiper as their new third base coach

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Roster Moves 📰

• LHP José Castillo claimed off waivers from the Orioles

• OF Ji-hwan Bae claimed off waivers from the Pirates

• INF Nick Madrigal elected free agency

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So, what if Edwin Díaz does in fact walk this winter? ✍️

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Mets elite closer Edwin Díaz opted out of the final two years of his contract shortly after the World Series ended, officially making him a free agent. The Mets did extend the qualifying offer to him, but it is unlikely he will accept, which means he is free to test the free agent market after another successful season. This does not necessarily mean his time in a Mets uniform is over since the team could always re-sign him. And, with draft pick compensation tied to Díaz’s free agency, that might very well have collapsed his market already given his age and price. But there is always a chance he signs elsewhere, which means the team would need to find a new closer for the 2026 season.

Let’s be clear - there is no scenario in which the Mets are better off without Díaz in the short term. If they want to win a World Series in the next couple of years, they need Díaz to help them do that. There are other closers available, but they are all next tier, even if they are good. Period, end of story.

But again, what if he does in fact walk?

The Mets do have an arm with closing experience in AJ Minter, but that is not a tactical response if Díaz were to depart, although he did have ten saves for the Braves in 2024 but has mostly served as a set-up man throughout his career. He is not the ideal solution since he has never been a full-time closer, and he is coming off a season where he appeared in just 13 games before losing the rest of the year to injury.

This would mean that the Mets need to either acquire a closer on the free agent market or trade for one. Luckily for the team, there are quality free agent arms they could sign to replace Díaz. The first is Pete Fairbanks, who became a free agent when the Rays declined his option for next season. He had 27 saves in 2025, which was a career high, and held a 2.83 ERA for Tampa last year. He also pitched over sixty innings, which was also a career high. He’ll be 32 at the start of the 2026 season and could be an acceptable closer for the team next season.

Pete Fairbanks metrics - via Baseball Savant

The next option is All-Star Closer Robert Suárez. He led the league with 40 saves last year with the Padres and had a 2.97 ERA. He had 75 strikeouts in 69.2 innings pitched, and over four seasons with the Padres, he has a 2.91 ERA. Given his 2025 season, he will cost more on the market than Fairbanks, so it will be up to GM David Stearns how much he will want to spend on a closer, especially given the fact that the bullpen has a lot of other holes he needs to fill.

Robert Suárez metrics - via Baseball Savant

Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley are also free agents, but those are both risky options, and this bullpen needs proven arms given the uncertainty surrounding both the pen and the starting rotation. We all know too well how poorly Helsley pitched overall for the Mets, albeit in an unfamiliar role as a setup man to Díaz. And Williams just never seemed comfortable pitching in New York following a trade to the Yankees last winter, despite his dominant frisbee slider (which was actually more effective by the metrics in 2025 than it was in 2024) and his otherwise unworldly peripheral stats which suggests he was a whole lot better than his overall line.

Devin Williams metrics - via Baseball Savant

Now what if Díaz returns? Yeah, some of these guys are still good fits!

Fairbanks and Suárez would still be good arms to target to create an elite back end of the bullpen and hopefully bring some stability to the later innings of the game. They will undoubtedly enter free agency as closers and wait to see what happens with Díaz, who is at the top of the closer market, before seeing where they might fit. Fairbanks might be better aligned to sign as a setup man, but his credentials as a closer would make him a better option for suitors looking in the second tier of the market.

No matter what, we know Stearns’ primary assignment is to not only restructure their starting rotation, but both rebuild and reimagine their bullpen as well. As such, the identity of the bullpen should be a lot different three months from now.

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Around the League 🚩

• The Rockies are bringing in Paul DePodesta to run their baseball operations after DePodesta spent the last ten years with the Cleveland Browns (ESPN)

• Don Mattingly is leaving the Blue Jays after serving as their bench coach since 2022 (ESPN)

• San Diego named former Padre Craig Stammen as their new manager (ESPN)

• Rays closer Pete Fairbanks is now a free agent after Tampa Bay declined his $11 million option

• A total of 13 players received the qualifying offer from their teams (MLB.com)