Wagner barely misses Hall of Fame, Wright stays on ballot

Billy Wagner falls five votes shy of the Hall of Fame in his 9th year of eligibility. Plus, a discussion about David Wright and Chase Utley.

What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎

• Former Mets LHP Billy Wagner fell five votes short of the Hall of Fame – next year will mark Wagner’s final year of HOF eligibility

• Former Mets CF Carlos Beltrán received 57.1% of votes in his third year of eligibility

• Former Mets 3B David Wright received 6.2% of votes, enough to remain of the Hall of Fame ballot next year

• Former Mets SS José Reyes received 0 votes for the Hall of Fame and will no longer appear on the ballot

• New York has shown interest free agent RHP Ryne Stanek out of the bullpen (MLB.com)

• Stanek, 31, has a 2.90 ERA over 186 appearances with the Astros since the start of the 2021 season

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Rumor Mill 💨

• The Pirates are showing interest in former Mets RHP Noah Syndergaard in free agency (Fansided)

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David Wright and Chase Utley are being evaluated very differently for the Hall of Fame… ✍️

Last night, Major League Baseball’s latest crop of Hall of Famers were announced as three new members were officially elected. Todd Helton, Adrian Beltre and Joe Mauer will each enter Cooperstown, with former Mets closer Billy Wagner coming just five votes shy of joining them.

Other than Wagner falling short – and he’s still on track to finally make it in his final year of eligibility next year – the thing Mets fans were most invested in was the status of the homegrown legend of David Wright.

While most people would admit that Wright is far from a slam dunk for the Hall largely due to the injuries that derailed his career, there is at least some merit in voting for the third baseman when you dive into his stats from his healthy seasons. He certainly had a productive enough career to hang around on the ballot for quite some time, and yet his status in that regard was very much in doubt entering last night.

If a player receives any less than five percent of votes, they officially fall off of the Hall of Fame ballot and are not eligible to return. Fortunately for Wright, he was able to just clear that benchmark as he received 6.2 percent votes and will return for a second year on the ballot in 2025.

While I’m glad that Wright will get another year on the ballot and perhaps more of a chance to slowly build his case over the next decade, I was interested in the fact that he received so fewer votes than his contemporary, Chase Utley.

Both eligible for the first time, Wright received 24 votes (6.2 percent) for the Hall of Fame, while Utley received 111 votes (28.8 percent.) And I don’t know about you, but there certainly feels like there’s a discrepancy there. For Utley to receive 87 more votes and 22.6 percent more votes than Wright feels like a rather large difference for a pair of players who were not as far apart as those numbers would indicate.

And look, I get it – Utley’s career slash line of .296/.376/.491 with a 51.9 offensive WAR, .876 OPS and 133 OPS+ are pretty hard to beat, but…

Wait, what’s that? Oh, my mistake… those are David Wright’s numbers.

David Wright: .296/.376/.491, 242 HR, 970 RBI, .867 OPS, 133 OPS+, 51.9 oWAR

Chase Utley: .275/.358/.465, 259 HR, 1025 RBI, .823 OPS, 117 OPS+, 51.3 oWAR

Moving on from that “honest mistake,” it is quite jarring when you see both of these players’ offensive numbers stacked up next to each other considering the massive difference in their voting numbers.

Where Utley obviously has Wright beat is total number of games played, thanks to Wright being diagnosed with spinal stenosis which all-but ended his career at age 32. Utley ultimately played until he was 39-years-old, and played in 352 additional games than Wright in his career. That’s why you’ll see the discrepancy in both of their overall WAR stats on either Fangraphs or Baseball Reference, as it is a cumulative statistic.

Through their age 30 seasons the two were close in terms of overall value, as Utley had posted a 40.3 fWAR while Wright bested him with a 48.7 fWAR by the same age. Just entering his 30s, Wright was already in a position where he’d had an incredibly productive career with a lot of road seemingly ahead of him.

By his age 31 season, the affects of the yet-to-be-diagnosed spinal stenosis – a lifelong degenerative back condition which made it difficult for Wright to even tie his shoes on his worst days – began to take effect. Wright played in just 209 games from 2014-16, missed all of the 2017 season and returned for just two games at the end of 2018 as a swan song to his fan base and baseball career as a whole.

For context, Utley was able to compile a 21.5 fWAR over his ages 31-39 seasons, despite largely being in the twilight of his career for a majority of that time period. That is an opportunity that Wright was never afforded due to his health, and does not tell the full picture of either players baseball story. Despite missing out on the final decade of his career, Wright still ranks as the 29th most valuable third baseman in MLB history in terms of fWAR.

Wright also has seven All-Star appearances, two Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers and four top-10 MVP finishes over the course of his career to round everything out.

At the end of the day, this breakdown is less about taking shots at Chase Utley than it is to use him as a comparison to make the case for David Wright. The two players are ultimately a lot closer than most people realize and I do feel strongly that Wright did enough in the time that he had for the injuries to completely destroy his chances.

Do I think Wright is definitely a Hall of Famer? No. But I think there’s a heck of a lot better of a case than people are currently giving him any credit for.

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Hot Stove 🔥

• The Brewers reportedly signed 1B Rhys Hoskins to a two-year, $34 million contract with an opt-out after the first season (Passan)

• The Dodgers reportedly signed LHP James Paxton to a one-year, $11 million contract with a $1 million bonus for making the Opening Day roster (Heyman)

• The Angels reportedly signed LHP Matt Moore to a one-year, $9 million contract (Heyman)

• The Guardians and 1B Josh Naylor are reportedly in discussions for a contract extension (Akron Beacon Journal)

• The Angels reportedly signed 1B/DH Miguel Sanó to a minor league contract (ESPN)