The real reason why the Mets are punting in 2024
The Mets are actively looking to trade for more starting pitching. Plus, a look into why the organization is likely waiting things out until 2025.
What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎
The Mets are “actively trying” to trade for additional starting pitching (MLB.com)
Rumor Mill 💨
Former Mets RHP Marcus Stroman and the Yankees reportedly have “mutual interest” (Nightengale)
A look into the Mets payroll, and why they’re punting 2024… ✍️
Make no mistake: The New York Mets are essentially punting on the 2024 season. That fact has become more clear as time has gone on this offseason, and has undoubtedly come as a disappointment to this fan base after having higher expectations.
It’s certainly been a frustrating offseason, as the club has shied away from larger moves in the wake of Yoshinobu Yamamoto spurning the organization to join the Dodgers super team out west. The more I’ve thought about things, the more I wanted to look into why the Mets are choosing this moment in time to reset. Why after two offseasons of such aggressive action is the team spending conservatively when Steve Cohen is the owner of the team?
Well, when you look into the numbers, the reasons actually start to become quite clear.
Everyone knows that the Mets went for it each of the last two years without reaching their goal, with the 2023 season particularly resulting in a massive flop. This owner spent a helluva lot of money last winter for a team that was mostly 10 or more games under the .500 mark last season, ultimately pivoted to being sellers and won a measly 75 games all year. That trade deadline pivot clearly acted as a line of demarcation for this organization’s future as the team made the decision to move on from many of their high-paid veteran players in order to restock the farm system. And that came at quite the financial cost.
As things currently stand, the Mets payroll in 2024 is projected to come in at a whopping $229 million, with their luxury tax payroll reaching $306 million. That does not yet fully account for what players may earn in arbitration or if the club makes any more signings over the next month or two, either.
In an effort to receive better prospects in return for their veteran players, the Mets agreed to pay-off large portions of the remaining salaries of James McCann (traded prior to last season), Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Those three players will cost the Mets a total of $49.5 million during the 2024 season, which equates to about 22 percent of the club’s total payroll going towards players being employed by other teams. It’s dead money.
The club found themselves in a similar, albeit less expensive, situation last year when they were on the hook for the salaries of Robinson Canó, Darin Ruf and James McCann for a total of $34 million.
In addition to $49.5 million in dead money on the books this upcoming season, the Mets also have several players on expiring deals this season between Omar Narváez, Luis Severino, Joy Wendle, José Quintana and Harrison Bader. Those five players, all of whom could be gone by the following offseason, will combine to earn $45.5 million. So, between players who aren’t playing for the Mets anymore and players with one year remaining on their contracts and are less-than-likely to return, New York is spending $95 million – 41.4 percent of their entire payroll.
Looking ahead to 2025, the Mets have an exceedingly large amount of money coming off their books. They will officially be off the hook for McCann or Scherzer, and will only owe Verlander $17.5 million in retained salary. The club is also only going to have to pay a total of $1.9 million in deferred contracts to Bobby Bonilla, Brett Saberhagen and Adam Ottavino.
With several players hitting free agency after this season the Mets will clear even more money, officially resetting their payroll. As things currently stand, the club’s payroll in 2025 stands at $143 million – nearly $100 million less than it is this season.
When you factor in those numbers and take a look at the free agent crop available next offseason, it all starts to come together. The Mets knew they could not continue on the road they were on; their roster was too old and too expensive for the results they were getting in return. Rather than tripling down on something that wasn’t working, the organization has decided to hit the reset button – not to be mistaken for the “rebuild” button – and clear things out before what I expect to be a return to big spending next winter.
The upcoming offseason will likely feature players such as Juan Soto, Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Paul Goldschmidt, José Altuve, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Alex Bregman, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and, of course, Pete Alonso (assuming the Mets haven’t completed an extension by then). Rather than spending big and committing future dollars to lesser free agents this offseason, the club has clearly set their eyes on this group of players in order to launch themselves back into contention in 2025 and beyond.
The organization has the appetite to get it done, the owner and the President of Baseball Operations to push it forward, and will have the payroll flexibility to make it work.
While punting on 2024 certainly comes as a disappointment, the strategy sure makes a lot more sense when you look not-too-far ahead…
Hot Stove 🔥
The Cardinals hired former Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom to an advisory role with the organization (MLB.com)
The Red Sox are considered to be a “long shot” to sign Japanese LHP Shota Imanaga (MassLive)
The free agent Imanaga only has until Thursday to sign with an MLB team before his posting window closes
The Rays are shopping OF Harold Ramírez in potential trades (Rosenthal)