The Phillies are coming to town, and a way-too-early trade deadline discussion

Coming off an off-day, the Mets prepare for their first showdown with Philadelphia. Plus, a look ahead at starting pitchers New York could target later this summer.

May 30, 2023

Mets Therapy ✘ Just Mets 🎙️

Just Mets' own Rich MacLeod joined this week’s episode of ‘Mets Therapy’ with Andrew Claudio to discuss the club’s difficult road trip.

What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾

The Mets were off on Monday — they open a three-game series with the Phillies tonight as their kick-off their six-game home stand
C Omar Narváez moved up to Triple-A Syracuse on Monday as his rehab assignment continues

Injury Updates 🏥

Omar Narváez (strained left calf) began his minor league rehab assignment late last week and is expected to return to the club from the injured list when he is eligible on June 5th

Today’s Game 🗓

Match-up: Mets (27-27) vs. Phillies (25-28)

Where: Citi Field – Flushing, NY

Starters: RHP Kodai Senga (4-3, 3.94 ERA) vs LHP Ranger Suárez (0-1, 9.82 ERA)

When: 7:10 PM EDT

Where to Watch: SNY

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A way-too-early look ahead at pitchers who could help the Mets at the deadline ✍🏼

We may not even be into the month of June yet, but it’s never too early to look ahead at the possibilities that come along with the trade deadline. With the Mets rotation clearly being their biggest area of need – the club ranks 25th in the league in starting pitcher ERA – let’s dive in to our way-too-early trade discourse…

The ‘It’s Not Gonna Happen’ Tier

Before we fully dive in, we felt it was best to avoid the “well what about [Ace X] from [Team X]” questions from the peanut gallery. This includes guys who are either pretty obviously not going to be available because of the way their teams are performing this season or for a variety of other reasons.

Marcus Stroman

Contract status: Signed through 2024 (Player option after 2023)
Stats: 2.59 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.5 fWAR

Uh… yeah. There’s a better chance of me pitching for the Mets in 2023 than Marcus Stroman donning the orange and blue one more time. It’s no secret that Stroman’s time in New York was marred by controversy and a myriad of clubhouse issues, specifically down the stretch of the tumultuous 2021 season. It spoke volumes that the Mets didn’t even attempt to re-sign Stroman in that subsequent offseason, and Stroman has tweeted through it since which would indicate that neither side is particularly keen on a reunion. An anonymous Mets player also complained about Stroman’s celebrating as recently as last week, so don’t hold your breathe on this one.

Corbin Burnes

Contract Status: Signed through 2024
Stats: 3.68 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 0.5 fWAR

While Burnes was a hot name over this past offseason and widely believed to be one of the few true aces available at this year’s upcoming deadline, it’s hard to believe that Milwaukee would choose now as the time to move on. Burnes is still under team control for the next year-and-a-half, and the club finds itself in first place in the NL Central. Even if the Brewers were to fall out of it, which seems unlikely with the Pirates and Reds being the two teams closest to them in the standings, Burnes isn’t having a typical year for himself (3.68 ERA) and it’s unlikely that the team would sell “low” there.

Brandon Woodruff

Contract status: Signed through 2024
Stats: 0.79 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 0.3 fWAR

Similar to Burnes, the Brewers probably aren’t going to look to move on from Woodruff in a season where they’re in line to compete for a division title. Another wrinkle here is that Woodruff has pitched just 11.1 innings so far this season as he’s been on the injured list with a subscapular strain.

Shohei Ohtani

Contract status: Signed through 2023
Stats: 2.91 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.3 fWAR (pitching only)

I don’t care how many games under .500 the Angels are, Arte Moreno is never trading Shohei Ohtani. And even if he did make one of the biggest personality pivots of all-time, there is an even smaller chance that Moreno would allow the franchise to trade one of their greatest all-time players to the Mets – a team owned by Steve Cohen, who Moreno voted against when purchasing the club.

Zack Greinke

Contract status: Signed through 2023
Stats: 4.55 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 0.5 fWAR

Once a dominant starter, Zack Greinke now finds himself in the twilight of his career back where it all started in Kansas City. I wouldn’t say it’s impossible that the Royals wouldn’t trade him if they could get something good in return, but considering his status in their franchise history I wouldn’t be surprised if they held onto him in what could be his swan song season. It’s also worth noting that Greinke may have already reached the end, pitching to a 4.55 ERA so far this season.

The ‘Maybe, But Probably Not’ Tier

Now these are the guys that while it’s not impossible that they become available, it still doesn’t feel incredibly likely. Still, it’s worth taking a look.

Shane Bieber

Contract status: Signed through 2025
Stats: 3.04 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.1 fWAR

Admittedly, we’re probably starting out with the most unlikely pitcher to get moved in this tier. Aside from Ohtani, Shane Bieber is the most legitimate ace among all of the pitchers we’re looking at today. The Mets saw the Guardians ace as recently as last week and while they did outlast him as part of a 2-1 victory, Bieber pitched a stellar eight innings in New York on primetime. Cleveland has a habit of trading their stars once they get closer to free agency, and Bieber is only under team control for the next year-and-a-half. It is possible that they could look to capitalize on his value now, especially as the team has fallen in the standings. It’s not the likeliest scenario, but we have seen these two teams agree to a deal involving a star player in the last few seasons…

Mitch Keller

Contract status: Signed through 2025
Stats: 3.01 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 1.7 fWAR

Mitch Keller is a guy that frustrated Pirates fans and fantasy owners for the last several years with maddening inconsistencies but finally it appears as if the youngster has finally put it all together in 2023. With an arsenal of impressive stuff, Keller has posted a 3.01 ERA and a 1.7 fWAR through his first 11 starts, averaging 11.14 strikeouts per nine to just 2.10 walks per nine. He’s also allowing less than one home run per nine innings and has been one of the key factors to why the Pirates have been having such a resurgence early this season. Now, it does feel unlikely that Pittsburgh would choose to move on from their 27-year-old starter right as he’s begun to figure it out, especially when he does have 2.5 years left of team control. But in the event that the team falls out of contention and/or would prefer to sell high on Keller, it is at least within the realm of possibility that he could become available.

The ‘Real World’ Tier

Okay, now this is what you all came here for. Considering performance, contract status and team standings, let’s take a look at some of the more realistic starting pitching options that could be available and help the Mets in the second half.

Lucas Giolito

Contract status: Signed through 2023
Stats: 3.98 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.0 fWAR

The White Sox are bad. Like… really, really bad. Already sitting at 11 games under .500 and playing non-competitively in baseball’s worst division, it is likely that Chicago will look to unload their top assets, especially ones that are on expiring deals. Following a difficult start to his big league career in Washington, Lucas Giolito has really turned things around in the last few seasons. Since the start of 2019, the White Sox right-hander has pitched to a 3.87 ERA, 3.73 FIP and a 14.1 fWAR. Aside from last season where he struggled mightily, Giolito has posted an ERA under four in four seasons and has been under 3.55 three times.

Drew Smyly

Contract status: Signed through 2024 (player option after 2023)
Stats: 3.45 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.4 fWAR

You can never have too many lefties and right now, the Mets only have one on their roster (and he’s in their bullpen). New York got a taste of Drew Smyly last week as the resurgent southpaw pitched five solid innings against them in a Cubs 7-2 win. Smyly has had a wonderful comeback season thus far in 2023, and even took a perfect game bid into the 8th inning earlier this month. With Chicago in the basement of the National League Central, they appear to be a team ready to continue their roster turnover from the last two seasons. Guys like Smyly, Stroman and Ian Happ on the offensive end all seem likely to be available and dealt in the coming months.

Alex Cobb

Contract status: Signed through 2023 (2024 club option)
Stats: 3.05 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.0 fWAR

What even are the San Francisco Giants these days? After their shocking 107-win season in 2021, the team by the Bay has fallen into baseball purgatory as they’ve been a mostly .500 team since. It may only be May, but this is a team that finds themselves one game over the .500 mark and in a playoff spot entering the day and they may not been particularly keen on trading one of their own starting pitchers to a team they’d be competing with in the Mets. That being said if San Francisco does begin to fall-off over the next month or so, Alex Cobb could be a very interesting name in the rumor mill. After a rocky start last season, Cobb settled down and had a pretty solid year in San Fran and is now following it up with an even stronger season. His fastball is averaging 95.4 miles per hour and he heavily relies on a sinker that has been very effective for him.

Around the League 🚩

The Royals came six outs away from the first combined perfect game in MLB history as they defeated the Cardinals 7-0
Cubs RHP Marcus Stroman pitched a one-hit shutout against the league-best Rays in Chicago’s 1-0 victory
One year after tearing his ACL, Twins SS Royce Lewis made his return and hit a three-run home run in the club’s extra-inning win over the Astros
The MLB-worst Oakland A’s blew out the Braves 7-2 in Oakland
Rangers RHP Nate Eovaldi continued his dominant month of May as the club blanked the Tigers by a 5-0 score
Dodgers RHP Bobby Miller won for the second time in as many starts in his big league career as L.A. took down the Nationals, 6-1