The Mets won a must-win game as they brace for a wild finish today
It all comes down to this--New York must win one of today's two games to clinch a playoff spot
What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets finally showed a pulse in Milwaukee, shutting out the Brewers 5-0 on Sunday afternoon (box)
Starting the biggest game of his Major League career to date, LHP David Peterson was spectacular, firing seven scoreless innings and allowing just four baserunners while striking out eight
Edwin Diaz, pitching for the first time in a week, struck out three in the 9th but threw 26 pitches—no doubt more than the Mets would have liked
Francisco Lindor led the offensive charge in this one, going 2-4 with a homer, 2 RBI, a walk, two stolen bases, and scoring two runs
Francisco Álvarez had two hits and drove in two runs, and JD Martínez snapped an 0-for-36 snap with a double and a single
The Mets finished the regular season against the Brewers with a 1-5 record. They’re 42-37 on the road, 16-8 in September, 18-14 against the NL Central, and 39-26 since the All-Star Game
Playoff Race 🏁
The Mets and Diamondbacks both won on Sunday while the Braves fell to Kansas City. Those results have put the three teams back in a virtual three-way tie for the second and third wild cards.
Per FanGraphs, the Mets have a 66.9% chance of making the postseason. The Braves have an 82.2% chance of making the postseason, and the Diamondbacks have a 51% chance of making the postseason.
Scenarios
Currently, the Mets and Braves are 88-72 and the Diamondbacks are 89-73. The Mets and Braves have magic numbers over the Diamondbacks equaling 1. The Braves and Mets have a magic number on each other of 2.
The magic number is calculated by the number of games left to play (2), plus 1 for the tie (it doesn’t apply with tiebreakers, so 0), minus the difference in the loss column (1).
The Mets and Braves each have the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks. The tiebreaker is not in play between the Mets and Braves now - one team will have more wins than the other in the regular season no matter what, and the winner of the regular season series will win the second wild card.
The winner of game 1 today will prevent the Diamondbacks from catching them in the race, as the best Arizona can do is finish with the same record as that team, and the tiebreaker the Mets and Braves have over the Diamondbacks will decide the race in their favor over Arizona.
But, the loser of game 1 today will have that team fall to 88-73, 1/2 game behind Arizona with one game to go, the second game of the doubleheader.
The only hope the Diamondbacks have is for either the Mets or Braves to sweep one another, at which point the loser of the sweep will have more losses than the Diamondbacks, eliminating the tiebreaker and thereby knocking that team out.
Here are the paths…
If the Mets and Braves split the doubleheader, they will go to Milwaukee as the third wild card to open the National League Wild Card Series with the Brewers. First pitch is scheduled for 5:32 PM ET/4:32 PM CT on Tuesday at American Family Field. The Diamondbacks will go home and their season will be over.
If the Mets sweep the doubleheader today, they will go to San Diego as the second wild card to open the National League Wild Card Series with the Padres. First pitch is scheduled for 8:38 PM ET/5:38 PM PT on Tuesday at Petco Park. The Braves will go home and their season will be over.
If the Braves sweep the doubleheader today, the Braves will win the second wild card and the Diamondbacks will win the third wild card. The Mets will go home and their season will be over.
Tiebreakers:
vs. ARI: 4-3 (finished)
Who’s Hot 🔥
With two more hits on Sunday, Jose Iglesias extended his hitting streak to 20 games, during which he’s hitting .416/.451/.507 with 32 hits and 13 runs scored during that span
Francisco Lindor has hits in six of his last seven games, hitting .360/.448/.640 with a double, two home runs, four RBI and five runs scored during that span
In 13 second half starts, David Peterson has a 2.79 ERA with 67 hits, 27 walks and just four home runs allowed with 69 strikeouts over 77.1 IP
Over his last five starts, Tylor Megill is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA, holding opponents to a .486 OPS during that span. He has allowed 17 hits, 8 walks and 0 HR in 25.1 IP during that span.
Today’s Game 🗓
Game 1
Match-up: Mets (88-72) at Braves (88-72)
Where: Truist Park — Atlanta, GA
Starters: RHP Tylor Megill (4-5, 3.98 ERA) vs. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (8-7, 3.47 ERA)
When: 1:10 PM EDT
Where to Watch: SNY, ESPN2
Game 2
Match-up: Mets (88-72) at Braves (88-72)
Where: Truist Park — Atlanta, GA
Starters: (If Mets lose Game 1) RHP Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA) vs. (If Braves lose Game 1) LHP Chris Sale (18-3, 2.38 ERA)
When: 40 minutes after the conclusion of game 1
Where to Watch: SNY, ESPN2
It all comes down to this…✍️
So, here we are.
It’s been a tumultuous week for the Mets with a brief stop in Atlanta, two days off followed by a no-show effort on Friday and Saturday. Then, the Mets changed the game plan, adding both aggressiveness and urgency to their step on Sunday and coming away with a must-win shutout over the Brewers in Milwaukee, a place they could find themselves back in later tonight.
The Mets opened the season against Milwaukee on March 29th. They were swept away by the very team that outclassed them on Friday and Saturday and could very well be facing tomorrow afternoon with a roundtrip through Atlanta and a doubleheader in between.
Not to over-exaggerate or oversimplify, but our current reality is that everything that’s happened over the last six months—the good, the bad, the ugly, the OMG worthy moments—it all comes down to what happens over the next few hours.
Thanks to Hurricane Helene, the Mets and Braves have been thrust into the extremely difficult situation of having to play a doubleheader the day after the season ended for everyone else, and the day before the playoffs officially begin.
It’s not easy, it’s not fair. It’s not thoughtful (actually it is - MLB is essentially getting their game 163 do-or-die on ESPN today). To either the Mets or Braves. But MLB is standing their ground on this one and not budging on the scheduling.
It is what it is.
New York is currently dead even with the Braves at 88-72 with Atlanta currently holding a tiebreaker over them. And of course, their 2024 fate will come down to what happens in Atlanta.
Seemingly as it always does.
But ironically, that is the good news.
The Diamondbacks are the ones left with the most angst here, as after finishing their season 89-73 they’re left helpless observers to today’s events thanks to a late season meltdown and losing tiebreakers to both the Mets and the Braves during the regular year.
That means each team (Mets and Braves) needs just a single win to officially clinch a playoff spot. That will set up a seriously interesting series of events today.
Both teams have made the decision to not start their best pitcher available today in game one. Tylor Megill and Spencer Schwellenbach will toe the bump for their respective teams this afternoon, while Luis Severino and Chris Sale prepare to potentially make a season saving start for their clubs in the later game.
Of course, the winning team in the opener will not start its ace in the second game, instead saving him to pitch in game one of the Wild Card round tomorrow. It’s also a foregone conclusion that the winning team in game 1 will rest as many starters as possible in game 2, and not use any high leverage relievers in the second game.
With that in mind, the most likely scenario today obviously is a split, with the team that wins the early game essentially punting the later one to prepare both physically and mentally for the road ahead.
That is quite clearly bad news for the Diamondbacks. But, as the Mets have done so often in the past and quite frankly, did this season, Arizona did this to themselves.
All of us Mets fans have been scarred from countless heartbreaks in Atlanta, and I realize we are all collectively terrified of what today could bring. But let’s take solace in the fact that the Mets, themselves, will at least be in position to write their own ending to this 2024 regular season rather than being desperate observers begging the universe for help.
Maybe the Baseball Gods are giving the Mets a hall pass in 2024?
One. more. win. It’s all that’s needed. Get it done.
Then they can celebrate and fly themselves somewhere to the playoffs.
Around the League 🚩
Kansas City got an early three run home run from Michael Massey and then held on to defeat the Braves 4-2 and clinch the number five seed in the AL. They’ll open the Wild Card round of the playoffs in Baltimore tomorrow
Arizona got home runs from Ketel Marte, Randal Grichuk, and Eugenio Suarez as they annihilated the Padres 11-2
The Tigers fell 9-5 to the White Sox and dropped to the six seed in the AL. They’ll open the playoffs against their old friend Justin Verlander and the Astros tomorrow afternoon
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