The Mets have a wins gap badly in need of covering

The Mets still have a ton of work to do just to get back to 2025's fWAR totals, which was good for 83 wins

🕎 Happy Chanukah to those who celebrate! 🕎

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What’s up with the Mets? 🍎

• The Mets are open to trading Mark Vientos this winter (SI)

• The Phillies have joined the Mets, Pirates and Padres among the teams interested teams in OF Luis Robert Jr. (Athletic)

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Rumor Mill 💨

• The Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles are the three finalists for RHP Michael King (Boston Globe)

• The Rangers insist they are not shopping SS Corey Seager (MLB Network Radio)

• The Giants are expressing interest in OF Cody Bellinger (SF Chronicle)

• RHP Tyler Glasnow does not expect the Dodgers to trade him (MLB Network Radio)

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Roster Moves 🗞️

• Signed RHP Daniel Duarte to a minor league contract

• Signed RHP Isaac De La Cruz to a minor league contract

• Signed LHP Cristopher Hernandez to a minor league contract

• Signed RHP Arnaldo Tejeda to a minor league contract

• Purchased contract of LHP Aaron Rozek in the Rule 5 Draft, AAA Phase

• Purchased contract of RHP Justin Armbruester in the Rule 5 Draft, AAA Phase

• Purchased contract of LHP Matt Turner in the Rule 5 Draft, AAA Phase

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What I’m Reading 📰

• Money may talk but dysfunction screams with the Mets (Newsday)

• Mets and Yankees have nothing better to do than fight over Cody Bellinger (Daily News)

• Where do the Mets go from here? (Athletic)

• How to view Jorge Polanco in the big picture (NY Post)

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The Just Mets Podcast 🎙️

On the latest edition of the podcast, Andrew Claudio and Rich MacLeod broke down the three potential plans David Stearns and the Mets could move forward with this winter.

SUBSCRIBE TO THE JUST METS PODCAST: YouTube | Apple Podcasts | Spotify

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Cody Bellinger’s free agency and covering the fWAR gaps ✍️

Sunday was actually a quiet day for the Mets and fans alike, which hopefully allowed you all to take a step back, relax, digest, and fully reflect on what was arguably one of the most tumultuous weeks in Mets history from a transaction perspective.

Just to recap, the Mets lost two iconic stars, one of whom to the two-time defending World Champion. They’ve signed a middle infield utility player to play first base, a player who has never recorded a full inning at the position in his professional career. They’re reportedly talking to the Padres about a big trade which would include some top prospects going there (and probably more than that) for some significant help on the major league roster.

It’s that simple!

As I’ve said, it’s time to move ahead. Losing Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz stinks. It’s as big of a loss emotionally as it is a production loss. It’s been a tough week, and while we didn’t know the way in the aftermath of those losses, we are catching a glimpse of the path forward for the Mets now. Whether or not they can complete this volatile journey successfully remains to be seen.

So, moving on, if we can.

New York Post

The Mets are reportedly open to trading Mark Vientos, according to a report from Sports Illustrated. That stands to reason with the acquisition of Jorge Polanco since they plan to use him primarily as a first baseman and a designated hitter, for now anyway. I am still not seeing how Polanco can play a lot at first base, not to mention provide value at the position considering he has literally no experience at the position. The Mets see this differently, of course, but again, playing someone at a foreign position and away from their defensive strength doesn’t exactly play into the run prevention scheme the Mets are touting this winter. And, with Marcus Semien, a Gold Glove second baseman, in the fold, it’s hard to see how the Mets can truly utilize Polanco’s strength as a plus middle infielder. Sure, he can spell the aging Semien at second, he can spell Lindor at shortstop, and certainly fill in at either in case of injury. But taking a player out of his comfort zone can sometimes work against him and impact the player’s offense as well.

It would behoove the Mets to find an alternative at first base to Polanco. It doesn’t necessarily need to be a high-impact player as much as it needs to be a player who is competent defensively there. I don’t see Vientos as that player and never have - I have surmised the Mets would eventually move Vientos this winter, although that was under a different assumption than I have now. He also doesn’t play into the Mets’ newfound run prevention strategy since he proved to be borderline unplayable at third base, and first base is generally foreign to him as well. It was a bad idea to consider him at first last winter when it was uncertain the Mets would sign Pete Alonso then, and it’s a bad idea now. So it stands to reason the Mets would look to move him since there’s no obvious fit for him, especially with Polanco in the fold as a switch-hitting right-handed designated hitter.

Now, could that player be Cody Bellinger?

A week ago, I would’ve said yes. Today, I am unsure. He is still an excellent fit as a strong defender and a multifaceted defender who can play left field, center field, and first base. He would also be the insurance policy against Polanco at first base as well, and he would unquestionably make Vientos and Jeff McNeil expendable and unnecessary.

But given the path the Mets are on following the departures of Díaz and Alonso, it’s unclear just how much the Mets would consider a deal for more than five years for Bellinger, which he is all but certain to get unless his market completely crumbles. Yes, he’s younger than Alonso, yes, he’s a better defensive player than Alonso, but injuries coupled with volatility, as well as his left-handedness and park factor, weigh against Bellinger’s attributes as a player for the Mets. That, plus the optics of a willingness to give him a long-term contract over passing on Alonso specifically, could work against them even more, especially as many viewed Bellinger as a supplement to Alonso on this roster originally (including myself).

Cody Bellinger’s 48 home runs (regular and postseason) from 2024-2025 with Citi Field Field overlayed, via Baseball Savant

It’s also worth mentioning the Mets are reportedly less keen on Bellinger on a long-term proposal and would only become engaged if his market fell more to their liking, ie a shorter-term deal. As of now, that doesn’t appear likely.

For a moment, let’s just say the Mets sign Bellinger and trade away both Vientos and McNeil this winter and look at the Mets lineup at a small glance with respect to 2025 fWAR:

ADDITIONS

• Cody Bellinger (4.9)

• Marcus Semien (2.1)

• Jorge Polanco (2.6)

• Devin Williams (1.4)
  
  TOTAL: 11 fWAR

SUBTRACTIONS

• Brandon Nimmo (3.0)

• Pete Alonso (3.6)

• Tyler Rogers (0.4 w/ Mets)

• Edwin Díaz (2.0)

• Gregory Soto (0.1 w/ Mets)

• Ryan Helsley (-0.2 w/ Mets)
  
  TOTAL: 8.9 fWAR

So, in other words, on paper, if the Mets could add Bellinger, they would be better on paper before they add any layers to their starting pitching and more layers to their bullpen, two things they have to do.

But right now, that seems like a BIG IF. Again, a week ago I might’ve felt differently about it. And if they don’t sign Bellinger, it’s unclear how they would cover the 3 fWAR deficit they need to merely be on-level to 2025, which was of course a bad year for the Mets. Not to mention fill the gaps in left field, center field, rotation, bullpen, and of course, first base.

One of the reasons I think we should be keeping an eye on the Bellinger situation is the Yankees. A couple of weeks ago, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said he felt the club was too left-handed as it stood, which was interesting considering he was so good for them in 2025, he’s a natural fit for that ballpark, and the consensus has been that he would eventually land back with them over the course of free agency. That still might very well happen, but they’ve been very conservative, or to use the new industry term, opportunistic, so far this winter after Hal Steinbrenner said he would prefer not to have a $300 million payroll.

There’s some buzz out there that the Giants are interested in Bellinger now, but with park factor being a big thing for Bellinger’s game, that just doesn’t seem like a fit. Citi Field is more neutral - Bellinger would be in the 20-25 home run range when looking at the metrics there, so it’s still generally a good fit for him. But not as good as Yankee Stadium.

As for the pitching, it would appear the Mets could be out on a potential signing of Michael King, as the Boston Globe is reporting that they are not among the three finalists for his services. That’s a shame - he seems like a good fit for them considering his ace-like upside. They were reportedly targeting him as recently as a week or so ago, but I am wondering now if Dylan Cease’s seven-year, $210 million changed the market landscape entirely for starting pitching and pushed his contract expectations outside the Mets’ comfort zone, which we all know by now is very short-term for a 30+ year old starting pitching. We will see what King ultimately scores in free agency.

It’s just so hard to even brainstorm what the Mets might do right now. It’s been such an unpredictable off-season so far, and we aren’t even officially in the winter season yet. Things will also be quieting down after this week until the new year in all probability, so let’s see what the Mets have up their sleeve.

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Around the League 🚩

• The Diamondbacks re-signed RHP Merrill Kelly to a two-year, $40 million contract (Athletic)