The Mets are on the hook for a $101 million luxury tax

The Mets CBT obligation is more than double that of the next highest club, paying a total of $6.3 million per win in 2023

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What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎

• The Mets will pay a record $101 million luxury tax after posting a $374.7 CBT payroll in 2023 (AP)

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The bill has finally come… ✍️

At the end of every meal at a restaurant, you like all of us dread that moment when it’s time to pony up and pay the check, especially when you know you might’ve ordered those extra overpriced drinks you didn’t need and now regret, or that extra side nobody even touched.

Multiply that guilt by around $100 million and that is exactly where the Mets are with their check from Major League Baseball today after they got a bill for $101 million from the league by over-indulging and leaving a lot of food on the table.

Ok, maybe it isn’t the same, but I think you catch my drift.

The sum total of what the Mets will pay in payroll and luxury tax obligations are what we expected it would be a year ago when the Mets had more or less put their roster together minus their pursuit of Carlos Correa and we were all trying to break out the calculator and figure out what the actual total might be.

Reminder - the actual payroll is different than the CBT payroll. The actual is based on the numbers in the checks they write to the players. The CBT payroll is based on the average annual value of a contract. So, if a player has a two-year, $20 million contract but is earning $5 million in year one and $15 million in year two, the CBT payroll for each year is $10 million per.

I think we were all pretty close - the Mets are on the hook for a total of $474 million for their 2023 flop, or $6.3 million per win and their typically longer than other teams off-season thanks to their fourth place finish and their often unwatchable season. For the non-math experts, that’s $373 million or so in CBT payroll plus tax and shipping.

Of course, we didn’t think they’d trade away a large portion of their roster, we certainly didn’t think they’d underperform to the order of magnitude they did, either.

Just think - if they had held onto those players, their tax would’ve been worse to the tune of an additional $8.4 million.

What’s a few million here or there, anyway at that point? So, you pay $9 for the souvenir soda at the ballpark, not $8.50.

For years and years, fans were clamoring for the Wilpons to spend to the size of their market, and for years and years the Wilpons generally did the opposite, cutting corners at times they shouldn’t, not pursuing the biggest free agents to the degree they should have only to see them want to go elsewhere anyway, and lose and lose, and lose some more because of poor management, poor player development, a dysfunctional organization, players who they hoped could relive their glory days but their best days were unquestionably behind them, among other things.

Fast forward to today, and everyone got exactly what they wanted, in free agency anyway.

We have an owner who spends lavishly, an owner who chases every single big free agent and signed most of them in the last couple of winters, and probably admittedly spent blindly on a season that netted them more or less the same as their 2012 and 2013 when they combined for a $214 million CBT payroll.

I’m not saying Mr. Cohen shouldn’t have done it. I’d be lying if I sat here and said before any of that $474 million was committed it was a bad idea, even though it probably was then and I chose to ignore it anyway (after all, it wasn’t my money!). It was risky of course and we all knew it, but accepted the risk because it was what we all wanted from this franchise, and that was to live up to it’s big market potential, fill their roster with stars, and outspend the competition with the richest owner in sports.

It was fun to see the Mets sign pretty much every single one of the free agents they wanted. It really was.

But it just goes to show as it has time and time again throughout the near 50 years of free agency - money can buy the free agent, money can extend the player they traded for, but that is only a fraction of the solution - there’s more to it than just that and it still can’t buy the chemistry and the wins needed to qualify for the playoffs.

I actually don’t believe the amount the Mets owe should make the Mets or any team gun shy about spending big on payroll. There are in fact teams who have “bought” championships, teams who are generally trying to “buy” championships now (see the Dodgers specifically right now, arguably the Rangers in 2023), and teams who do a good job of mixing free agent investments with internal player development investments to build sustainability.

Some teams will tell you it’s a combination of all of that which will give that team sustainability, and honestly, that’s what I subscribe to myself.

I don’t believe a team can build a sustainable winner in free agency alone, nor do I believe it can be achieved strictly via player development and a rich farm system. There have been plenty of small and mid market teams with perennially strong farm systems who simply never contend, and plenty of teams (like the Mets and Padres) who spend big in free agency but hardly ever contend, either. Teams like the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers never usually have a high first-round pick in the draft either, yet they’re always at the top of the heap and playing in October (not last year for the Yanks, of course, but you know what I mean).

So, which one is it? I don’t know in the end. Nobody really does. It’s all of that, and maybe none of that. We aren’t behind those closed doors at the ballpark.

I really don’t know what the Mets have to do to get to the promised land. Sure, I can say “sign this guy,” or “extend that guy,” or “don’t trade that prospect.” Any combination of what I think can be the right call but literally none of what I have ever said the Mets should or shouldn’t do has led them up the Canyon of Heroes. I’ve seen different attempts by this franchise and others to build up, including previous attempts to hoard prospects, build from within and get them to the big leagues. I’ve seen previous attempts by this franchise to dive head first into the deep end of the free agent pool and sign as many players as they could. I’ve seen a mixture of both.

They have two championships in 62 years to show for all of that.

Every organization is different, every market is different, every player is different, every year is different. In the Mets case specifically, I think they’re greatly impacted by their market and the climate of that market (the fans are a part of that climate) as well as their own mishaps (many of which have been self-induced) they’ve encountered and continue to encounter.

One of those mishaps which was self-induced for the 2023 season was that which the club accepted too much risk with the players who they brought in and who were already there with an incomplete roster-building strategy. That combined with the high turnover rate in the dugout and front office and their own inability to properly develop players consistently (something Mr. Cohen has repeatedly said needs to improve) helped set the foundation for their very poor season, and the reality check ownership and this once again new front office are now faced with today about 2024.

Hopefully, Mr. Cohen has learned his lesson and understands now that Rome truly wasn’t built in a day.

2023 CBT obligations (per the AP)

• Mets: $100.8 million

• Padres: $39.6 million

• Yankees: $32.4 million

• Dodgers: $19.4 million

• Phillies: $6.9 million

• Blue Jays: $5.5 million

• Braves: $3.1 million

• Rangers: $1.8 million

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Hot Stove 🔥

• The Padres signed Yuki Matsui to a five-year contract

• The Rangers are pursuing Clayton Kershaw in free agency (Athletic)

• Boston is very interested in signing James Paxton (WEEI)

• The Padres and Blue Jays have discussed a trade involving Jake Croenworth (Athletic)