The Mets and that run prevention issue...
The Mets are reportedly primarily seeking pitching and defense to improve their roster for 2024, and have spoken to a specific free agent who could help address that need
Rumor Mill 💭
The Mets have been talking with free agent OF Michael A. Taylor (SNY)
Ah, the old adage of pitching and defense wins championships.
And, as I always say on Twitter (or X, or Threads, or Facebook, or to my youth teams), run prevention is paramount.
Maybe the Mets are finally getting what all of that means. According to The Athletic, the Mets are endeavoring to improve in the run prevention category as they strategize around their procurements for the roster this winter.
There was an era in baseball and an era with the Mets specifically when defense was more or less taken for granted. A time when the analytics suggested anyone’s output offensively had the potential to outweigh that same player’s defensive shortcomings.
As such, teams, or more specifically lineups, especially those built by the Mets, were driven by an offense-first approach.
The problem with those Met teams of course was not only were they generally below average to terrible defensively, but they couldn’t hit top to bottom either.
The Mets defense last year wasn’t good overall. Maybe that had had something to do with the modified infield shifting, maybe that had something to do with the inevitable regression, maybe it had to do with injuries, or a combination of all of that.
Overall, the Mets had -12.1 defensive runs saved (DRS) which ranked them 18th in the majors. They weren’t much better the year before and actually ranked lower in the majors at 20th with -9.5 DRS.
Their outfield combined for -16 DRS in 2023, -12 of which was in centerfield.
Not exactly championship-grade.
Now, the Mets pitching was generally bad in 2023 too. Their 4.30 team ERA ranked 19th in the majors, the 4.20 ERA produced by their starters was 13th (which isn’t good but not terrible) and their relievers produced a 4.45 ERA which ranked 22nd (now that’s bad).
But the team’s overall Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was 4.47. If you’re not aware, FIP eliminates anything a pitcher doesn’t have any control over, which essentially are balls in play. That FIP is not too far off their team ERA, which does include those balls in play.
So, in other words, the Mets pitching was bad, their defense was bad, but it’s not as if the pitching was bad because of their defense. It contributed to it, but only fractionally. They were simply both areas that led to the Mets losing 87 games in 2023.
Here’s a breakdown of the Mets run differential by inning, courtesy of Baseball Reference:
The funny thing is, the Mets were 63-2 when leading after eight innings in 2023. Go figure.
A lot of this is certainly watered down by the final third of the season, during which the Mets did not have a closer presence in the ninth inning. But their run differential margins (both on the plus and minus sides) tell the story for them about their starting pitching and bullpen.
Their run differential in the first and second innings combined was -50. That had nothing to do with the absence of Edwin Díaz, that is for sure. That more or less means that far too often, the Mets were down by multiple runs early, and far too often the Mets needed to go to their (lackluster) bullpen early in games. It was due to a combination of pitching and defense, that which was lacking for the Mets in large measure in 2023.
But not every ball in play induced is on the ground of course, even from the best groundball pitchers in the league.
Then there are the seventh and eighth innings, where they combined for a -47 run differential, and far too many losses because of those innings.
Much of this was the result of their eighth inning reliever (David Robertson) being thrusted into the closer role right at the jump. That left a vacancy in the setup role, meaning other middle relievers had to step in and be what Robertson was signed to be. Adam Ottavino struggled himself over the first two months of the season, which also contributed to the ineffectiveness of their bullpen specifically in that part of the game.
So, that’s where we get into their run prevention strategy the Mets are reportedly trying to employ. The Mets need to get better at both their pitching and defense at the same time to cut down on the number of runs they allowed at both the start and conclusion of each game. Diaz’s return will help in the bullpen, but this is why the Mets need to not only get better pitchers but reimagine the kind of staff they want in an effort to play into the strengths of their defense.
And vice versa.
After all, they can’t strike everyone out, as much as we’d like them to.
This is why the Mets not only need to improve their starting rotation, not only improve the bullpen and not only improve the defense (specifically in the outfield). They must also procure pitchers who they can routinely rely on for efficiency, strike throwing, and quick outs, and also defensive players who feed into all of that and better prevent runs on balls in play.
And it’s not just about getting better pitchers, and getting better outfielders, and getting better hitters, either. That’s an overly simplistic viewpoint for the solution. It all has to feed into the strengths of each player while protecting their weaknesses.
This is also why the Mets are better suited to not only find at least one outfielder, but figure out a way to use Brandon Nimmo in a way that will make him a better outfielder too. Does that mean flanking him with elite defenders in the corners, cutting down on the range he will need to have out there and some longer throws he wouldn’t otherwise have to make? Or, does that mean finding a better center fielder and moving Nimmo to a corner?
Is Jeff McNeil that outfielder? He was a plus defender in both corner outfield positions in 2023.
Or, could it be someone like Michael A. Taylor - who the Mets are reportedly showing interest in - who could be used as a fourth outfielder, thereby shifting Nimmo to a corner outfield spot in those scenarios (Taylor had a .914 OPS vs LHP in 2023, btw)? Are they willing to sacrifice so much offense in an effort to prevent runs? Can they prevent more runs than someone like Taylor would cost offensively?
The answers to these questions should begin to unfold this week at the Winter Meetings in Nashville. They’re going to be looking for that starting pitching, they’re going to need to load up on swing-and-miss relievers, and whatever position player they go after might determine what they do with McNeil, Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos.
But whatever they do, the design has to be about a new and modern approach to run prevention, one that is more athletic, more versatile, more competitive and perhaps most importantly, more strategic at it’s core with this faster pace in baseball.
Michael A. Taylor
Taylor, 32, is coming off his best season from an OPS perspective, posting a .720 OPS while slugging 21 home runs with 51 RBI in 129 games as the Twins primary centerfielder.
Taylor spent the first seven years of his career with the Nationals, serving in a variety of roles for them as he went in between the minors and majors during his time in Washington. He joined the Royals after the 2020 season in an attempt to reboot his career, and in a full-time role posted a .653 OPS thanks in part to striking out 144 times in 528 plate appearances. That trend continued during his tenure with the Twins in 2023 when he struck out 130 times in only 388 plate appearances.
Taylor is a defense-first player, as he posted 5 defensive runs saved (DRS) with the Twins in 2023, and 38 DRS while with the Royals from 2021-2022.
He is a lifetime .239/.294/.389 hitter.