The Luis Severino dilemma...

Also, the Mets hit the road for a long road trip on a dud against the Twins as they went 4-3 on this last homestand

NY Post

What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️

• The Mets lost to the Twins 8-3 at Citi Field on Wednesday afternoon (box)

• Luis Severino started for the Mets but simply didn’t have it - he allowed five runs in the third inning, six in total, before being lifted

• The Mets bullpen pitched well - they allowed two runs over the game’s final six innings

• Huascar Brazoban - who was acquired from Miami on Tuesday - highlighted the club’s performance out of the bullpen - he pitched the ninth inning and notched two strikeouts

• Mark Vientos homered again - he hit a two-run homer in the second inning off Pablo López

• The Mets went 18-9 in the month of July, and are 29-14 since Grimace threw out the first pitch and 35-18 since May 30th

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Playoff Race 🏁

With their loss on Wednesday, the Mets were knocked out of a Wild Card positio in the National League. They are 1/2 game behind the Diamondbacks for the third wild card spot.

The Mets are exactly 2/3 through the regular season - there are 54 games remaining.

Per FanGraphs, the Mets have a 47.6% chance of making the postseason.

New York has the 4th easiest schedule in MLB the rest of the way.

Tiebreakers:

• vs. ATL: 5-5

• vs. ARI: 2-2

• vs. STL: 3-2

• vs. SD: 3-0

• vs. CIN: 2-1

• vs. SF: 2-4 (finished)

• vs. PIT: 5-2 (finished)

• vs. CHC: 4-3 (finished)

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Roster Moves 📰

• RHP Huascar Brazoban activated

• LHP Matt Gage optioned to Triple-A Syracuse

• RHP Tyler Zuber optioned to Triple-A Syracuse

• RHP Adrian Houser released

• RHP Ty Adcock released

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Injury Updates 🏥

• OF Brandon Nimmo (bruised foot) is day-to-day after fouling a ball off his foot. He was removed from Wednesday’s game for precautionary reasons

• RHP Sean Reid-Foley (shoulder impingement) struck out the side in the seventh inning of his rehab assignment with Double-A Binghamton on Wednesday night

• RHP Reed Garrett (right elbow inflammation) threw live batting practice on Wednesday

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Draft signings 🖊️

The Mets announced on Wednesday they signed 18 of the 20 players they selected in the 2024 first-year player draft in July. In addition, they signed four players who went undrafted.

The Mets signed picks 1-8 and 10-19.

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Mark Vientos Power! 🤩

Mark Vientos has hit 26 home runs in his first 144 career games for the Mets.

It’s the the fourth-highest mark for any Met over the first 144 games of their career, behind only Pete Alonso (47), Darryl Strawberry (31), and Francisco Álvarez (27).

David Wright is fifth with 25.

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Down on the Farm 🌾

• OF Luke Ritter (Triple-A): 1-for-4, HR, 3 RBI

• RHP Joander Suárez (Double-A): 6 IP, 1 H, 9 K

• SS Mateo Gill (High-A): 3-for-4, HR, RBI, 2 R

• RHP Jonah Tong (High-A): 5.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 10 K

• INF Boston Baro (Low-A): 2-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI

BOX SCORES

Single-A STL | High-A BRK G1 G2 | Double-A BNG | Triple-A SYR

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Today’s Game 🗓

The Mets are off today. They open a three-game series with the Angels in Anaheim on Friday night.

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The Luis Severino dilemma… ✍️

NY Post

The formula seems rather simple for the Mets right now.

If they win, they’re in a wild card.

If they lose, they’re on the outside looking in.

Such is life when the field is so crowded. Every game becomes uber critical to the Mets ability to remain in pole position. And while we all know how well the Mets have played over the last two months and how winning each series at this point is so very paramount, they can’t and won’t win every game down he stretch.

Chalk Wednesday’s game into the third of the season the Mets are simply not going to win.

It was a dud generally from the start due to Luis Severino simply not having it out there on a hot and humid getaway day for the Mets at Citi Field. His velocity was certainly and evidently down - he was averaging 94.7 mph with his fastball with it dipping to 92 mph at one point during his very brief outing.

For context, Severino’s fastball has averaged 96.1 mph all year long, per StatCast. His slider - which normally averages 86.9 mph - was averaging 84.1 mph and the Twins ate that you know what for breakfast, Shooter McGavin style.

Now, that can be due to any number of things.

It could’ve simply been a day where he was just off, whether it was general feeling, mechanics, or whatever. It happens. It’s a long season and every pitcher - regardless of how good they are - throws a stinker at least once or twice over the course of 30 starts.

It could be some kind of injury Severino is dealing with too. But he did say after the game he is fine, the Mets don’t seem to be too concerned about that, so that’s a good thing for the Mets in their otherwise questionable rotation.

There’s also the innings fatigue factor which we have talked about as part of the Mets calculus time and time again.

Severino has thrown 123 innings in 2024, the most he’s thrown since he threw 191 innings in the 2018 season, six years ago. Figure he still has 8-9 starts left in the regular season. Assuming he’s healthy and he averages the just-under 6 innings per start he’s thrown this season, that will get him to around the 200 inning mark, which is pretty high all things considered for him.

Personally, I don’t think the Mets will allow him to go that far, especially since they hope to need him to throw in the playoffs. The problem is, on the other hand, he’s been among their best and most consistent pitchers this season in a rotation filled with a whole lot of who knows what on a daily basis from an innings perspective alone.

So the Mets have to thread this needle carefully to get him through the season in a competitive manner for the team.

Paul Blackburn will definitely play a role in managing Severino’s innings, as will probably Tylor Megill. I don’t think that formula will include Brandon Sproat, nor will it include Mike Vasil, Dom Hamel or Blade Tidwell. The Mets seem intent on keeping Megill stretched out as a multi-inning guy out of the bullpen, and I could definitely see them sending Megill back down to start even if he has proven to be sub-par at the big league level in that role.

Again, while I know the cost was stupid in the market, this is one of the reasons why I kept calling for the Mets to get a reliable starter before Tuesday’s deadline. It wasn’t just because I wanted the Mets to be better - it was to also manage a very delicate situation with Severino as well.

So, let’s see what the Mets do with Severino the next go around. His next start is slated for Tuesday in Denver. The Mets could opt to send him out against the Cardinals on regular rest on Monday in that quick stop makeup game in St. Louis and keep Severino from throwing at the higher elevation, thinner air, etc. Of course, the flip side of that is it will likely be pretty hot in St. Louis.

Again, lets see how the Mets choose to manage Severino through this next turn in the rotation.

As for this next road trip…

It’s a mixed bag of competition. They have a series against the lowly Angels in SoCal this weekend, a must-win game against St. Louis on Monday which would clinch the tiebreaker against the Cardinals, then games to soak up against the Rockies in Denver, and the conclusion of a long and windy road trip with three in Seattle. It’s out west, back east, and out west again.

Going out west for a club is never usually easy. This itinerary is grueling with no days off in-between for the Mets aside from today.

If it was so easy, we’d all be driving around in Bentleys, right?

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Around the League 🚩

• The Yankees swept the Phillies with a 6-5 extra-inning win at CBP

• The Braves maintained their top wild card position with a 6-2 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee

• The Cardinals powered past the Rangers 10-1 - they are 1.5 games out of a wild card spot

• The Diamondbacks staved off a late rally from the Nationals, holding on to win 5-4 to push past the Mets for the third wild card

• The Padres clipped the Dodgers 8-1 to move into the second wild card spot