Report: The Mets will bid $50 million more than the next highest team for Juan Soto

Plus, a segment of #BaronTrades!

What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎

• The Mets are willing to bid $50 million over whoever is the highest bidder for Juan Soto (YES Network)

• As expected, Sean Manaea will reject the $21.05 million qualifying offer (ESPN)

• New York signed INF Donovan Walton and OF Rafael Ortega to minor league contracts with invites to major league Spring Training

• The Mets signed RHP Justin Hagenman to a one-year Major League contract

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The Juan Soto Sweepstakes ♨️

USA Today Sports

• The Mets are willing to bid $50 million over whoever is the highest bidder for Juan Soto (YES Network) – Nov. 18

• The Yankees met with Scott Boras and Juan Soto on Monday, and now the Dodgers are expected to meet with him (New York Post) – Nov. 18

• Mets owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, and manager Carlos Mendoza met with Scott Boras and Juan Soto on Saturday in Newport Beach, CA (New York Post) – Nov. 16

  • The Mets came away “hopeful” and perhaps “optimistic” of their chances of being able to sign Soto

  • They remain viewed as one of the favorites to sign Soto, as the meeting went very well

• Someone would have to blow Juan Soto away with an offer to pry him from the Yankees, who could sign before the Winter Meetings (SNY) – Nov. 12

• Francisco Lindor has taken a role in the club’s pursuit of free agent superstar Juan Soto (ESPN) – Nov. 12

• Soto is eying a $700 million contract in free agency (Heyman) – Oct. 31

• After the Yankees lost Game 5 of the World Series, Soto told reporters all 30 clubs will be in play for his free agency this winter (watch) – Oct. 30

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Rumor Mill 💨

• Nick Martínez accepted the $21.05 million qualifying offer from the Reds (Cincinnati Inquirer)

• Willy Adames is drawing interest from the Braves, Red Sox, Astros, and Blue Jays (MLB Network)

• The Braves and Cubs are showing interest in signing Walker Buehler (MLB Network)

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#BaronTrades - From practical to completely unrealistic trade ideas… ✍️

For those who are new to our Mets community, #BaronTrades became a thing about 10 years ago (I seriously didn’t intend for it to grow into what it became) where people would pepper me with all sorts of trade ideas on Twitter. I didn’t ever ask for people’s trade ideas - people would simply phrase their tweets to me with, “How about the Mets trade for XYZ,” more or less.

Most people would genuinely ask me if a deal made sense even if it was impossibly far fetched or one sided and for players who to this day, have never been traded nor were the Mets ever connected to (including Mike Trout, although Justin Upton was always a very popular #BaronTrades idea).

Some people would knowingly make an outlandish proposal too, which was fine and all in good fun.

So, I am going to resurrect #BaronTrades as part of our off-season newsletter content, give you some sensible as well as some completely impractical ideas.

For the purpose of the audience and not knowing whether or not you’re being serious, I will treat every one of them seriously.

Well, not entirely!

As such, here we go…

This actually isn’t too far-fetched, Xavier, which is why I am kicking off today’s newsletter with it. This is going to come up until Crochet is dealt, or until the White Sox take him off the block.

For the Mets, trading for Garrett Crochet makes a ton of sense because he’s young, he’s cheap, he’s controllable, and all of that creates a very low-risk scenario for the Mets to add pitching.

To me, it’s way better for the Mets to spend prospect capital on a young and talented left-handed pitcher like Crochet than it is to spend a ton of money on a 30-something pitcher in a long-term deal who has more good days behind him than he does ahead of him.

Xavier is definitely on the right track as far as the prospect return goes for Crochet, but it’s probably not quite there. My expectation is the Mets would have to add another prospect to get Chicago’s attention, like a 10-15 prospect, and that’s where the Mets have to be mindful of balancing what is considered a good and fair trade for them with respect to where their farm system is present day. They have a lot of good 1-10 prospects, but many of them were injured in 2024 and some of them might be 10-15 or 15-20 in other organizations.

So, how does Chicago view the Mets prospects compared to those from other clubs?

That’s why its going to be hard for this deal to come together.

With the Marlins, you can never rule out the possibility of a trade. They’d trade Billy the Marlin if they could. They already traded the home run sculpture for a party deck almost nobody goes to on game day since they never really draw (except for events that have nothing to do with the Marlins - that place can rock when full, by the way), and the beautiful fish tank away for banner ads.

And the trades for players they do make are never usually good for them, either.

What did they do with those fish, by the way?

Anyway, Sandy Alcántara, 29, missed the entire 2024 season while he recovered from Tommy John surgery. He last pitched on September 3, 2023 for the Marlins, pitching to a 4.14 ERA in 184.2 IP after winning the Cy Young Award in 2022.

Before the injury, Alcántara had emerged as one of the best pitchers in the league, and most notably a guy known for going deep into games, averaging 216 innings per 162 games throughout his career.

But then he blew his elbow out, and here we are with another pitcher coming back from a UCL problem.

I don’t think the Mets need a third team to swing a deal for Alcántara or any pitcher for that matter. That’s not the issue.

The issue is, should the Mets be spending major prospect capital on a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in a year and a half and who will undoubtedly be on an innings limit, assuming he’s ready for Opening Day at all? Oh, and he is owed $34 million through 2026.

Not when they can spend perhaps a little more prospect capital and get someone like Crochet, who is cheaper, younger, and probably a surer bet than Alcántara.

I also don’t know if I’d be particularly happy with the Mets dealing a strong, controllable prospect in the division who could potentially bite the Mets in the butt in the years to come, especially with Alcantara being an unknown going forward. Nor would the Mets, for that matter.

It doesn’t mean it’s not conceivable, but it needs to come with a lot of insurance and a small prospect package going to Miami. And by insurance I mean Miami eating some of the guaranteed money, which I wouldn’t expect them to do.

Speaking of money, Alcántara signed a five-year, $56 million extension before the 2022 season with a club option for 2027. He will earn $17 million in 2025 and 2026 and $21 million in 2027 if his option is exercised. If he’s traded, he gets a $1 million assignment bonus.

I was seriously hoping someone would mention Carlos Correa.

Look, I was as excited as anyone when the Mets tried to sign him two winters ago, even as I worried about what the back-end of his contract would look like with his questionable medicals. With that said, I wasn’t upset the deal didn’t work out, although it got dragged out way longer than it should have.

But this is exactly the trade David Stearns’s front office is not looking to make, if I had to guess. Even if the cost in prospects is minimal and the Mets eat the remainder of the deal. And that’s not because he still isn’t good - he had a very good year in 2024 after a disappointing year to start this contract in 2023. The end of his contract is complicated and vests with certain performance triggers, he would have to move from shortstop to third base, which would automatically force Mark Vientos to move to first base, which would mean the Mets would not be bringing Pete Alonso back under those circumstances.

Are the Mets better with an expensive 30-something-year-old Correa and Vientos at new positions on the infield, are they better with a new, natural third baseman and Vientos at first, or are they better off leaving Vientos at third and either re-signing Alonso or finding a new, natural first baseman?

Something tells me having Correa at third and Vientos at first is the least desirable of those options.

The Mets signing Clay Holmes isn’t a bad idea. But if he wants a guarantee close, he isn’t signing with the Mets. If he’d be willing to come in as a setup guy with occasional save opportunities on a short-term deal, fine. But something tells me that at least as of now, Holmes is looking for a multi-year deal as a closer.

Holmes, who will be 32 on opening day, had 30 saves for the Yankees in 2024 while allowing 22 walks with 68 strikeouts in 63 innings. He earned $6 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility last season. He allowed just three earned runs in 12 innings during the postseason.

This isn’t the Wilpon era, Jim. They’ve proven under Steve Cohen that they’re willing to not only complete rosters, but do whatever it takes to do so financially, whether it’s wise or not.

If they sign Juan Soto, they’re not going to end their winter on a high note right there. They know there’s a lot of work to do, a lot of pitching staff building that needs to be done, how they’re going to sort out the corner infield situation they’re in, and so on. They have a ton of money coming off the books, and even if they sign Soto, they’ll still be under the first luxury tax threshold.

And, all they’ve done is go over it in the Steve Cohen era. So, have faith.

For a split second, I thought about this.

Maybe less than that.

Four players for a (soon to be) 38-year-old reliever in Kirby Yates, including two prospects and the one they got for Max Scherzer?

Also - he’s a closer.

Definitely reminiscent of the good old days of #BaronTrades.

I’ll get to Nolan Arenado in a second.

There’s only one thing in this scenario the Mets would do, and that is bring back Pete Alonso. David Stearns has made it abundantly clear for about a year now that he is not going to block younger players from a long-term opportunity in the big leagues.

He nearly did it when they signed JD Martínez in March, but that was mostly because the club was convinced Vientos’s glove couldn’t play in the big leagues, which in hindsight was a mistake. That’s not to say Vientos is great there, but he’s competent at worst with a plus arm. I expect he is endeavoring to become more valuable defensively this winter as well.

As for Arenado, he’s still good, but this is not the player the Cardinals acquired a few winters ago from the Rockies. He’s turning 34 in April, and while he’s still better at third than Vientos is, it’s fair to say that even this fractional version of Arenado is still better than most at third. But his skills are declining, his bat has definitely declined in the last two years, and he’s owed $64 million of the $74 million left on his contract by his current employer (The Rockies are paying $10 million of it, which is stupidly absurd, but that’s the Rox for you).

And again, there’s no reason to block a young, emerging star at third base or at first base when there are other ways for the Mets to improve this winter, and certainly not with a player whose skills are declining and is locked in for three more seasons.

I feel like the last thing the Mets should be doing is taking prospects from a mid-tier farm system and trading them for 34-year-old players who are declining and expensive.

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Around the League 🚩

• Hurricane Milton could be an inhibitor to the Rays getting their new stadium in 2028 (TB Times)

• The Astros have sold their stadium’s naming rights to Daikin (Official)