Poor pitching, poor defense were the themes as the Braves creep closer to the Mets

The Mets were sloppy and flat in their loss to the Braves on Tuesday. But we are NOT in Panic City!

Michael Baron

Sep 25, 2024

What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️

The Mets were shutdown by the Braves 5-1 at Truist Park in Atlanta on Tuesday (Box)
Luis Severino started for the Mets and pretty much struggled from start to finish, allowing seven hits and four runs over four laborious innings
The Mets offense was shutdown by Spencer Schwellenbach over seven innings, netting only a solo home run from Mark Vientos with two other hits sprinkled in
The Mets defense made the whole even bigger for Severino and the Mets - Luisangel Acuña was unable to start a double play in the first which elevated his pitch count, Severino and Francisco Álvarez collided in the third which forced an errant throw to first from Severino which ignited the Braves big inning, and Brandon Nimmo misplayed a single in left field which cost them a base
Ryne Stanek allowed a solo home run to Marcell Ozuna, but the bullpen otherwise held the fort over four innings
The Mets 2-5 hitters went 0-for-15 with a walk on Tuesday
Francisco Lindor appeared to be available off the bench - he appeared in the on-deck circle with two outs in the top of the ninth inning, but never came to bat

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Playoff Race 🏁

The Mets and Diamondbacks lost. The Padres and Braves won. As such, the race for the second and third wild card in the NL became significantly closer.

The Mets are now just a game ahead of the Braves for the second wild card, and the Braves closed to within 1/2 game of the D-Backs for the third wild card.

There are just five games remaining.

Per FanGraphs, the Mets have a 77.5% chance of making the postseason.

If the Mets win two games against the Braves this week, their magic number against them would be reduced to 1, or a tie for a wild card with Atlanta. However, winning two would also net the Mets the tiebreaker against Atlanta, which in turn would clinch at least the third wild card.

Also, if the Mets go 4-2 over their final six games, they will be in.

The earliest the Mets can clinch a playoff berth is with a win on Thursday, September 26 - they would have to win today AND tomorrow in Atlanta.

Tiebreakers:

vs. ATL: 5-6
vs. ARI: 4-3 (finished)
vs. SD: 5-2 (finished)

Who’s Hot 🔥

José Iglesias extended his hitting streak to 17 games on Tuesday. He’s hitting .409/.435/.515 with 27 hits, four doubles, a homer and three RBI with 13 runs scored during that span

Down on the Farm 🌾

The 2024 minor league season is now over for the New York Mets.

RHP Brandon Sproat - the Mets’ No. 1 prospect - was named an Eastern League All-Star and the Eastern League Player of the Year

Mets top 30 prospects

Today’s Game 🗓

Match-up: Mets (87-70) at Braves (86-71)

Where: Truist Park - Atlanta, GA

Starters: LHP David Peterson (9-3, 3.08 ERA) vs. LHP Chris Sale (18-3, 2.38 ERA)

When: 7:20 PM EDT

Where to Watch: SNY

We are NOT in Panic City! Yet. ✍️

Tuesday’s outcome for the Mets wasn’t exactly ideal, although they did get some help from the Giants in their win over the Diamondbacks. They didn't pitch well, they didn’t hit well, and they didn’t play well defensively.

You kind of need to do those things competently to win baseball games.

It wasn’t the performance the Mets needed from Luis Severino, to say the least. He didn’t have his slider from the jump in this game and you just kind of knew from there it was going to be a difficult road for him.

While he has given the Mets two quality starts in his last three, you have to wonder if the innings are now starting to play a part for Severino, although his fastball velocity seems to be there despite some recent struggles.

Despite the rocky performance, it’s not as if the Mets offense was able to pick Severino up. They were completely hosed down by Spencer Schwellenbach again. It was no contest for the Mets and that’s putting it nicely. They were disposed of quickly and efficiently, not mounting any sort of meaningful threat against him over his stellar seven inning performance.

That was the kind of performance the Mets needed from Severino. If he had his slider, maybe it would’ve been a better game.

But maybe’s and if’s are worth a hill of beans this time of year. In the end, this was the game the Mets really needed to get for a number of reasons.

First off, it would’ve left the Braves needing a Hail Mary to catch them the rest of the way, even with two games left in the series. All the Mets would’ve then had to do was win one of the two remaining games in this series, even if they were up against Chris Sale and Max Fried. The pressure would’ve been on Atlanta.

Instead, the pressure is now on the Mets. They were fortunate to get some help from old friend Michael Conforto and the Giants last night against the reeling Diamondbacks, but now it feels like the Mets will be fortunate to get out of Atlanta with one game.

Of course, here’s the rub.

The weather tonight in Atlanta is iffy at best, and the forecast for tomorrow would suggest there’s next to no chance the game gets played. That means, as of now anyway, the Mets and Braves would have to play a doubleheader on Monday if the games matter.

Now, that isn’t great for two teams vying for a playoff spot and one of those teams needing to travel either to Milwaukee or San Diego for a game the next day. It screws up their pitching staffs in the worst way. Make no mistake about it.

But this isn’t in either team’s control. It is what it is.

However, if that’s what it comes to, it works in the Mets favor.

The Mets will be able to throw Severino on regular rest in one of those games. The Mets could also simply go with David Peterson who is supposed to pitch today, or pretty much choose who they’d bump into the other game from there, although I’d expect them to bump Peterson in that case.

The Braves, on the other hand, absolutely must throw Sale and Fried this weekend against the Royals. You would think anyway. They’re on the outside looking in and can’t plan for a doubleheader on Monday until they actually get there.

So, that works in the Mets favor under the worst of playing circumstances, if you ask me. But we will see how the chips fall in this case.

Also - if Francisco Lindor was truly available, and the Mets get rained out over the next two days, that means its possible he could be available for every game the rest of the way, especially if he can rest the next two days.

As for that pit in your stomach from last night, all I can say is, I get it. We’ve seen this movie before. The Mets never play the Braves well this time of year and especially down there. Hell, they never play the Braves well regardless of the time of year, no matter how good they are or how good the Braves are. It’s never easy, and we’d all like the Mets to just wrap this thing up and to get to Milwaukee with the race in their rearview mirror.

But these are the Mets and you know it would be a rollercoaster ride whether they were playing the Braves or the Marlins or whoever right now.

Even so, it’s just one game.

They’ve won every other critical game they’re supposed to win down the stretch and have been beyond impressive and inspirational during this difficult schedule. They can’t win every game no matter what the implications are.

Deep down, we all know that, even if deep down, you’re afraid they might blow this thing. Again.

But honestly, I’m choosing to trust how they’ve played since May 30, which is the best in baseball since that date, and believing that while it may not go down in the easiest way, and they may in fact scare the ever loving crap out of me over the next five days, the Mets will be playing in six days. Somewhere.

They’re the best team in the field right now. They’ve outplayed San Diego. They’ve outplayed Arizona. And yes, they’ve outplayed Atlanta. Having a seat at the table is always better than not - just ask the Braves about that. And that’s where the Mets sit right now.

I’ve spent the better part of the last 38 years of my baseball fandom having faith in the Mets, for better or for worse. It’s probably the only thing that has kept me engaged with the Mets. Sometimes, that faith has been rewarded. Unfortunately, most of the time it has been blisteringly disappointing.

2024 should be one of those times it’s rewarded.

I am not panicking over Tuesday. I am not panicking at the specter of a doubleheader on Monday. I am not panicking because now this weekend is guaranteed to be meaningful in Milwaukee.

And if the Mets do blow this given a two game lead with six to go coming in, they’d have only themselves to blame for it.

And they’re too good for that.

Around the League 🚩

The Padres clinched a postseason berth with their 4-2 comeback win over the Dodgers
Michael Conforto belted a three-run home run as part of the Giants 11-0 shutout over the Diamondbacks
The Royals edged the Nationals 1-0 to end their seven-game losing streak and keep their grip on the third wild card
The Tigers edged the Rays 2-1 to help solidify their playoff position in the wild card race
The Astros clinched the AL West with a 4-3 win over the Mariners, which also pushed Seattle out to 2.5 games in the wild card race
The Marlins played spoiler in their 4-1 win over the Twins - Minnesota is now two games behind the Royals for the third wild card