Pete Alonso's potential new contract, and what other markets are the Mets into?

Pete Alonso might have to settle for different kind of contract than he was originally looking for

What’s up with the Mets? 🍎

• The Mets are still engaged in contract discussions with Pete Alonso, but he now might have to settle for an opt-out laden deal (ESPN)

• The Mets are also in the market for a starting pitcher, bullpen help, and an outfielder (ESPN)

• The Mets officially announced they were retiring David Wright’s no. 5 and will be inducting him into their hall of fame on July 19 (story)

• The Mets could seek a high-end reliever if they can get one on a short-term deal (SNY)

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Rumor Mill 💨

• The Yankees don’t see Luis Arraez as a fit for their roster right now (NY Post)

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Where the can Mets go with the parts they’re seeking for the roster… ✍️

It’s been a quiet couple of weeks for the Mets and most of baseball as everyone begins to unwind from a long holiday period. There’s been some movement, but for the most part, the hot stove is only now starting to get warm again.

With that came a little bit of an understanding of where the Mets might be going the rest of the winter. They aren’t done, and we all know there is still quite a bit of work to do to complete this roster.

We can start with Pete Alonso because that’s the primary piece here and, depending on how this shakes out, will probably determine how the Mets proceed with their roster.

We’ve beaten this one to death. His market has shrunk, teams don’t trust his player profile, his best days might be behind him, and all of that. But I guarantee Alonso is going to be richer at the conclusion of the 2025 season, whether he gets a one-year and an opt-out or a ten-year deal (the latter of which he is not getting, before you get riled up about that one).

A marriage between the two remains the best and most obvious fit for 2025, however that might look. I still believe they’ll eventually come together on a contract. Someone is going to blink, and this should get sorted out. Nobody wants this situation to drag into spring training either, presumably. That’s good for nobody. I still think the framework for a fair deal is a four-year, $100 million contract or a five-year, $125 million contract. How much of that is guaranteed, how much of that becomes part of a player option, we will see.

Now, if the Mets and Alonso can’t somehow find a path forward here, then and only then do I see them pivoting to Alex Bregman, if he is still available. I think we are seeing a lot of the same parts of the Scott Boras Machine with Bregman as we are with Alonso.

Like Alonso, Bregman’s market appears to have shrunk down to only the Mets and Red Sox in theory, and neither are exactly natural fits. It remains to be seen if Rafael Devers would agree to move off third base to free third base up for someone like Bregman, and that might mean Boston would have to deal away Triston Casas so Devers can play first. Casas has been dangled on the trade block, but so far, Boston hasn’t moved him.

So, easier said than done there.

As for the Mets, it just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to sign Alonso and Bregman, and not because I don’t think it would make them better for 2025 and 2026. It definitely would.

The issues I see are a locked roster long-term with at least three players who are at least 30 years old. That isn’t a path forward to maintain a pipeline from the minor leagues with two premium positions blocked on the infield.

Now, if the Mets were to sign Alonso to a deal that included opt-outs, it might make more sense to sign Bregman to a guaranteed and longer-term deal. Then again, if they did that and Alonso chose not to opt-out, he’s not opting out in that scenario because he performed well, you know what I mean?

But certainly, if this situation with Alonso never comes together and Bregman is still available, I could see the Mets pursuing Bregman as their Plan B.

Now, let’s talk about the buzz around their starting rotation.

We all know they’ve publicly expressed interest in signing Rōki Sasaki. They were awarded an interview last month in Los Angeles with the star pitcher, as were a few other teams. We will see if they’re among the finalists for his services, and hopefully, they know that soon so they know what direction they’re going in, for better or for worse.

I don’t think the Mets are going to act on this market until they know where they stand with Sasaki. They already have what, eight starting pitchers on the roster going into camp? Sasaki would be the ninth, so it’s hard for me to see them pursuing two for the major league roster right now.

Then the question is, if they can’t sign Sasaki, what sort of quality would they pursue in the market? Obviously, with Sasaki they’re aiming high talent-wise, but this sort of talent really isn’t available in free agency and certainly wouldn’t be available on the terms the Mets are seeking, which is clearly short-term.

So, my guess is, the Mets would be looking more at end-rotation or depth options in their pivot in free agency unless they can orchestrate a trade for someone like Luis Castillo or Pablo López, the latter of which might not even be on the block right now. That might not be what people want to read, but I am just following the popcorn trail on that one.

As for the outfielder they’re looking for…

The Mets were reportedly in on Joc Pederson before he signed with Texas. They were reportedly in on Teoscar Hernandez before he signed back with Los Angeles. Those are some pretty high-end bats, but we learned with Hernandez the Mets were reportedly looking to do a two-year deal with him, and he ultimately took three from LA, the team he really wanted to go back to anyway.

Maybe the Mets would pivot to Jurickson Profar, who is coming off the best year of his career in his age-31 season in 2024 and probably comes with more uncertainty and unpredictability than those who are now off the board. But he’s a switch hitter, he can hit for power and gets on-base and perhaps most significantly, he hit well against spin pitches in 2024, and that’s something the Mets struggled with over the course of last season.

Profar is also not tied to draft compensation, making him an even snugger fit for the Mets. The question is, do they think his 2024 season is repeatable or was it an aberration?

Lastly, the bullpen…

This is always tricky and the Mets always seem to either mess this up and be forced to fix this area of the roster over the course of the year. This market doesn’t usually fully develop until after the holidays, so there is plenty of time for the Mets to figure it out.

I can tell you what they need and what they don’t need, and we can take it from there.

They’re not signing a closer. Whether you like it or not, Edwin Díaz is their closer. So that’s going to rule out Tanner Scott, who presumably wants to close. You can probably throw Kirby Yates and Carlos Estevez onto the “no” list too. Jeff Hoffman could be a “maybe” for short relief, but it remains to be seen if he views himself as a closer in this market alongside the other top-tier relief arms.

But that shouldn’t rule out someone like AJ Minter. The Mets need a left-handed reliever, and he has been among baseball’s most reliable relievers since he came up in 2017, short of injury-riddled blips in 2019 and 2024. He would be a real quality add from the left side.

There’s Kenley Jansen, Ryne Stanek, David Robertson, and a bunch of other good fits for the right side of the bullpen. Jansen may want to still close, but he’s a great fit if he is willing to be a setup man (that can be said for a lot of clubs too). I am always a fan of getting swing-and-miss arms with closing experience in the event something happens with Díaz. As Stanek showed down the stretch, swing-and-miss ability in the bullpen helps to shorten games big time, and the Mets lacked that in large measure up and down their pitching staff in 2024. It’s an area the Mets must address specifically, and those three can still go a long way towards solving that problem.

Also - there aren’t a lot of closing jobs out there, and certainly not a lot on contenders. So, one of these older relievers might want to take a back seat to the ninth inning for a good situation, and the Mets obviously have a good situation to offer.

So, let’s see how this all shakes out over the next 3-4 weeks. There’s a lot of work to be done, a lot of roads for the Mets to travel, and a lot of different outcomes. I think there will be some pleasant surprises added to the roster before camp opens up in five weeks.

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Around the League 🚩

• The A’s and Brent Rooker agreed to a five-year, $60 million contract extension (Athletic)

• The Dodgers and Reds have announced a deal sending INF Gavin Lux to Cincinnati for prospect Mike Sirota and the Reds’ Competitive Balance Round A selection (official)

• The Royals and RHP Michael Lorenzen are in agreement on a one-year, $7 million contract (ESPN)