Nolan McLean spins his way to a stellar MLB debut
The rookie delivered exactly what he's put on display in Binghamton and Syracuse this year. Will it signal a turning of tides?
What’s up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets stopped the weeks-long bleeding for at least a moment with a 3-1 win over the Mariners on Saturday (box)
RHP Nolan McLean had an excellent MLB debut, tossing eight strikeouts and allowing just two hits while surrendering four walks across 5⅓ scoreless innings
SS Francisco Lindor continued his recent hot streak, going 2-for-4 with a double and driving in one of the Mets’ three runs
RF Juan Soto and 1B Pete Alonso also drove runners in; Alonso’s RBI was the 100th of his career
RHP Edwin Diaz gave up a late home run but still secured his 24th save of the season
Playoff Race 🏁
Both the Phillies and the Reds lost on Saturday, bringing the Mets back within five games of first in the NL East and 1.5 games ahead of the Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Per FanGraphs, the 2025 Mets now have an 83.7% chance to make the playoffs.
Who’s Hot? 🥵
Brett Baty is hitting .364/.391/.636 with two homers in his last seven games
Francisco Lindor has a five-game hitting streak, during which he is hitting .550/.609/1.100 with 11 hits, two doubles, three home runs, and six RBI with seven runs scored
Juan Soto has a nine-game hitting streak, during which he is hitting .294/.390/.735 with 10 hits, five home runs, and eight RBI with 10 runs scored
Play of the Game 🙃
After running into some walk trouble in the third, McLean found himself with the bases loaded and one out on the board. Mariners CF Julio Rodriguez was up to bat. But rather than crumble under the pressure, the rookie cleaned up his own mess.
McLean delivered a sweeping slider in on JRod's hands that was slapped right back up the middle. Without missing a beat, McLean shot his glove arm behind his back to corral the hard grounder before flipping the ball to Brett Baty for an electric 1-4-3 double play.
Down on the Farm 🌾
RHP Jonah Tong (No. 4 prospect, Triple-A): 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K (AAA debut)
RHP Jack Wenninger (No. 11 prospect, Double-A): 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 1 HR
BOX SCORES
Single-A STL | High-A BRK | Double-A BNG (8/13 Makeup / 8/16) | Triple-A SYR
Today’s Game 🗓️
Match-up: Mets (65-58) vs. Mariners (68-56)
Where: Journey Bank Ballpark - Williamsport, PA (Little League World Series)
Starters: RHP Clay Holmes (9-6, 3.71 ERA) vs. RHP George Kirby (8-5, 3.71 ERA)
When: 7:10 PM EDT
Where to Watch: ESPN
RPM, RPM and more RPM for Nolan McLean! ✍️
It may have been his first MLB start, but Nolan McLean looked every bit the part of a pro on Saturday.
Though it was just his first of many pro starts to come, McLean gave us quite a bit to look forward to. With a thorough distribution of his pitch mix on display and a clear ability to control the pace of play and handle pressure, he showed ample poise in a pretty huge spot, considering the team’s recent history.
But, should we really be surprised?
This performance stability is characteristic of McLean: throughout his Minor League ascent, his stats have never wavered. In some cases, they’ve improved as the competition has gotten harder, especially once he started focusing exclusively on pitching:
Heading into Saturday’s contest, McLean’s 2025 minor league numbers would have him ranked at the top of the Mets’ rotation* if he’d posted the same stats in the show:
WHIP: 1.13 (1st)
K/9: 10.06 (1st)
LOB%: 80.9% (2nd)
ERA: 2.45 (2nd)
FIP: 3.65 (3rd)
BB/9: 3.96 (3rd)
*Rankings based on >50 IP starter qualifier.
Let’s take a look at what McLean did yesterday and see how it compares to his MiLB track record to date:
When asked after the game what he thought was the primary driver behind McLean’s success on Saturday afternoon, C Francisco Álvarez said it was the rook’s ability to effectively use a little bit of everything he has in his bag.
On Saturday, McLean threw 91 pitches, featuring his entire repertoire across his five-plus innings of work. His famous sweeping slider and his sinker took center stage, as they have in his minor league starts. McLean threw his curveball much more frequently yesterday than his MiLB trend would have suggested, but a 45% whiff rate on the day will encourage that.
Let’s talk about that aforementioned ‘famous sweeper’ real quick.
Per this Rapsodo piece from 2022, the average MLB curveball and slider will have the highest spin rates in a pitcher’s repertoire, around 2,430-2,530 RPMs each. Generally speaking, because they’re thrown at a lower velocity, the more rotation a pitcher can generate on their offspeed pitches, the more drastically they’ll move across the zone. Arm angle and pitch shape both play a large role in determining a given pitcher’s most effective spin rate/velocity combinations, but for the sake of brevity, “more spin = more movement.”
So, let’s see where McLean’s pitches from yesterday stack up:
Using those Rapsodo numbers as a reference point, McLean’s numbers are just a little crazy by comparison. It’s those ridiculous spin numbers that make his breaking pitches look like wiffle balls coming out of his hand.
Per Prospect Savant, McLean’s sweeping slider averages a little over 15 inches of glove-side break with almost no vertical movement. That head-on attack angle does make it susceptible to solid contact if it doesn’t break as it should, but it also makes it a lethal pairing with McLean’s late-breaking sinker. As they’re currently deployed, the sweeper and sinker take nearly identical paths to the plate out of his hand until the sinker breaks about 16 inches arm-side, basically the exact opposite movement of a nearly-identical pitch that’s being deployed more frequently. That’s devastating for hitters to try to decipher when the sinker is also approaching about 10 MPH faster than the sweeper.
McLean’s curveball, meanwhile, takes a different approach, averaging closer to 20 inches of glove-side action with ~13 inches of vertical drop — aka, ‘a hammer.’ Again, see the 45% whiff rate yesterday.
Another skill of McLean’s that was on display in his debut was his knack for leaving runners on base, an ability he put center stage with his inning-ending, bases-loaded double play in the top of the third. In Saturday’s contest, Seattle hitters went just 1-for-8 with RISP and left six men on base; McLean stranded the majority of those runners. He owned an 80% LOB rate across AA-AAA this year, something that has become a lost art for Mets pitchers this month (59.7% team LOB rate in August). For a team that’s struggled recently with particularly hittable pitching and an influx of runs being scored on them as a result, McLean’s is exactly the type of fresh arm that’s needed to challenge upcoming lineups.
Now, it’s no secret that McLean needs to improve his walk rate. Though his 10.00+ K/9 and ability to strand acquired runners have helped balance out the relatively high number of walks, a 4.00 BB/9 isn’t going to cut it at the big league level.
Still, despite it not being an ideal number, McLean’s 3.96 BB/9 in MiLB ranks third-best among qualified (>50 IP) Mets starters. That’s how severe the free bases problem is in Queens this season.
So, is this the guy that’s going to save the Mets’ season?
Maybe! Time will tell — it has only been one start.
Still, I can’t help but continually think about a fun fact the Mets booth gave us during the broadcast yesterday: the last time the Mets went on a losing streak where they dropped 14 out of 16 games was in 2012…the same year Matt Harvey debuted.
In Harvey’s debut, he also tossed 5⅓ scoreless innings, with 11 strikeouts against three hits and three walks. Sounds familiar.
However, where that Mets team was already sitting three games below .500 and finished the year 74-88, this Mets team remains much closer in the win-loss columns to where they were this same time last year:
2024 Mets on 8/17: 63-59
2025 Mets on 8/17: 65-58
This isn’t meant to undercut or negate the particularly poor performance of this team over the last few weeks. And though McLean hasn’t ever demonstrated difficulty adjusting to upticks in talent from level to level, leaning on a rookie’s arm to be the one who shepherds your team to success is always a risky bet.
But still, as I said before…he sure gave us a lot to be excited about.
Around the League 🚩
Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler was placed on the IL with a blood clot near his throwing shoulder; RHP Aaron Nola is being activated in his place
Dodgers LHP Blake Snell delivered six scoreless innings to help LA beat the Padres and reclaim the NL West
Ben Rice drove in seven runs and hit a three-run homer as the Yankees toppled the Cardinals 12-6
The Brewers won their 14th straight game with a 6-5 win over the Reds
Bring up the pitchers to revamp the rotation! And play very good baseball the rest of the way! LET'S GO METS!
Excellent in-depth piece! It's striking to me that the 2025 Mets have a better record than 2024 Mets at this juncture. Just a day ago I was studying suicide techniques. Go Baty!