Could the Mets choose Vlad Guerrero Jr. over Pete Alonso?

The latest hot stove rumors. Plus, analyzing the latest report on Vlad Guerrero Jr…

What’s up with the Mets? 🍎

• The Mets are “holding the line” with free agent 1B Pete Alonso - a move that owner Steve Cohen fully supports (SNY)

• Having already done their homework on potential alternatives, the Mets have checked in with the Blue Jays on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., although a trade for the star 1B doesn’t seem likely (SNY)

• Progress has been made on the structure of a deal, but the two sides remain far apart on the financials, and the Mets have told Alonso’s camp that they need a decision soon (NY Post)

• The Mets signed 17-year-old SS Elian Peña - considered by many scouts to be the next best prospect outside of RHP Rōki Sasaki - to a $5 million deal on the first day of the international signing period

• The Mets are showing interest in former Yankees LHP Tim Hill - who had a 2.05 ERA in 35 appearances with the Yanks in 2024 - in a bid to bolster the bullpen (Newsday)

• The Mets RHP Austin Warren off waivers from San Francisco. Warren posted a 1.69 ERA in six appearances for the Giants in 2024

• The Mets will be featured on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball four times in the early part of the 2025 schedule, including marquee matchups against the Yankees and Dodgers (ESPN)

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The Skinny on Elian Peña 📰

New York Mets

• As noted above, the Mets signed SS Elian Peña to a $5 million deal on Wednesday - which is the largest signing bonus in franchise history

• Ranked as the No. 3 international prospect by MLB Pipeline, Peña is the highest-ranked player to sign with the Mets since Pipeline began its annual international rankings list in 2012

• Peña was just one of three international prospects to receive a 65-grade hit tool - the lefty-swinging prospect is projected to have a lethal bat with an ability to spray the ball to all parts of the field

• He also boasts elite bat speed and incredible discipline at the plate, while he’s displayed smooth hands at shortstop

• Owning significant upside and with a very high ceiling, Peña has drawn early comparisons to Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers, and many scouts consider Peña to be the best international prospect outside of Roki Sasaki with a ton of upside offensively

• The Mets signed a total of 15 players on Day 1 of the international signing period, and you can check out the full list HERE

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Rumor Mill 💨

• The Dodgers and Padres have been calling teams to trade for international bonus pool money in order to make better offers to free agent phenom RHP Roki Sasaki (MLB.com)

• The Cubs could enter the Alex Bregman sweepstakes if the free agent third baseman shows interest in a shorter-term deal (670 The Score)

• The Giants have held recent talks with free agent outfielder Randal Grichuk about a potential move to The Bay (FanSided)

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Let’s talk about Vladimir Guerrero Jr… ✍️

Nick Turchiaro - IMAGN IMAGES

The Mets are still engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken with free agent 1B Pete Alonso, and with spring training edging ever closer, you can’t rule out a divorce between the two parties at this point.

Now, my head and my heart still tell me that, ultimately, a deal will get done, and Alonso will be a Met on Opening Day.

However, until a contract is signed, anything is possible, and it makes sense that the front office is getting all of their ducks in a row as it pertains to backup options if Alonso doesn’t return.

By the way, you would think decision day is coming down the pike soon given that the Mets have told Alonso’s camp that they need a final outcome to this whole saga ASAP, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

Anyway, back to alternatives. Per Andy Martino of SNY, the Mets have been “checking in” with the Toronto Blue Jays this winter about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s availability. Now, it seems prudent to stress that checking in quite literally means checking in, and a blockbuster trade for the star first baseman isn’t anywhere close. As Martino put it, a move for Guerrero Jr. “remains in the realm of fantasy baseball.”

However, given that Guerrero Jr.’s name has now been linked to the Mets in a public forum, it is worth talking about.

First and foremost, teams are monitoring the current situation in Toronto because Guerrero Jr. is set to become a free agent after the 2025 season. An extension with the Blue Jays is far from a guarantee, with the four-time All-Star setting a deadline of the first full day of spring training before cutting off any talks about a new deal. Therefore, if Toronto is unable to reach an agreement with its first baseman on a new contract, the idea of trading him this year, rather than losing him for nothing next winter, would no doubt become more and more attractive.

Of course, it would take a significant package of prospects and perhaps other pieces to acquire a player of Guerrero Jr.’s substantial talent in a trade. The Mets, and indeed any other interested teams, could be more inclined to take a chance and make a run at the Gold Glove and two-time Silver Slugger winner if he hits free agency next year.

The nuts and bolts of the logistics aside, it is hard not to see why the Mets would have an interest in Guerrero Jr. as a potential replacement for Alonso. After all, Guerrero Jr. is significantly younger than Alonso at 25 years old, and he’s yet to hit his prime. He offers more upside and a higher ceiling than Alonso, and would form a lethal three-headed monster with Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor at the top of that Mets lineup.

You could argue that Guerrero Jr. brings a lot more to the table than Alonso does, too. He gets on base at an incredibly high clip - his on-base percentage hasn’t dipped below the .330 mark in each of the last four seasons - he’s a doubles-hitting machine, he can steal bases, he hits for average and power, and he probably offers more upside defensively than Alonso at first base too.

Furthermore, Guerrero Jr. is coming off an impressive 2024 season in which he hit .323/.396/.544/.940 with 30 home runs, 103 RBIs, 44 doubles, and 72 walks. His strikeout percentage also dropped to 13.8%, and his walk rate rose to 10.3%, which are both good signs.

Nick Turchiaro - IMAGN IMAGES

Plus, and this is worth noting again, Guerrero Jr. still isn’t 26 years old, and his prime years are ahead of him. With that in mind, it is feasible to think that he should only get better, and he certainly has the power potential to hit closer to 50 home runs. That’s certainly a mouthwatering proposition for any serious contender.

However, on the flip side, there are reasons to be concerned when it comes to Guerrero Jr.’s future development. He has been known to arrive at camp on the heavy side in previous years, and that could only become more of an issue the older he gets. He also hasn’t lived up to his true potential with the Blue Jays yet; his production has been streaky, and he’s been known to go missing in the big moments for Toronto.

Plus, if the Mets end up signing Guerrero Jr. to a long-term deal, they could end up with two stars on big contracts needing more reps at DH if Guerrero Jr. and Soto don’t age well in the outfield and at first base, respectively. So that’s something else to keep in mind.

Of course, all of this is conjecture at this point, and the Mets making a deal for Guerrero Jr. right now seems as likely as me bagging a date with Reese Witherspoon (we can all dream, right?).

But the point remains that if Alonso isn’t destined to remain a forever Met, then the Mets will need a long-term replacement at first base, and Guerrero Jr. would certainly be the top option.

He would likely edge the Mets closer to a World Series, and he would give the Mets a legit super lineup that could go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers over the next few years at least.

This is all fantasy baseball talk right now, but if everything lines up and Alonso doesn’t return and Guerrero Jr. does indeed become available, either this year via a trade or when he hits free agency next year, then the Mets should be major players given that they are built to win right now.

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Around the League 🚩

• The Nationals and free agent outfielder Franchy Cordero agreed to terms on a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training (Just Baseball)

• ESPN released its first batch of matchups for Sunday Night Baseball for the 2025 season, which begins on March 30 with the Braves at the Padres (ESPN)

• The Yankees acquired RHP Michael Arias from the Chicago Cubs for cash considerations

• The A’s signed Japanese two-way player Shotaro Morii to a minor-league contract on Wednesday