Mets shuffle rotation, competitively aligned for Phillies, Braves and Brewers

Seven of their next ten games are against the Phillies, with the Braves and Brewers to follow

Linda Surovich

Sep 13, 2024

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What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️

The Mets were off on Thursday, and are in Philadelphia to open a three-game series with the Phillies on Friday
The Mets shuffled their rotation to have David Peterson pitch in front of Tylor Megill on Sunday. Luis Severino, Peterson and Sean Manaea are aligned to pitch the series in Atlanta in that order, with Severino set right now to pitch the final regular season game in Milwaukee
Kodai Senga - who is eligible to return from the injured list on September 25 - could be available to start the final game of their series in Atlanta in a short outing (SNY)
Edwin Díaz thinks clubhouse chemistry is the reason they have been able to go on after struggling earlier in the season (MLB.com)
SS Francisco Lindor released his own clothing line in a collaboration with New Balance (MLB)

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Playoff Race 🏁

All of the wild card contenders in the National League were off on Thursday, so the standings remain the same entering play against the Phillies.

There are 16 games remaining.

Per FanGraphs, the Mets have a 55.8% chance of making the postseason.

New York has the fifth hardest schedule in MLB the rest of the way.

Tiebreakers:

vs. ATL: 5-5
vs. ARI: 4-3 (finished)
vs. SD: 5-2 (finished)
vs. CHC: 4-3 (finished)
vs. STL 4-2 (finished)

Who’s Hot 🔥

Since Phil Maton made his Mets debut on July 11, the bullpen has a 3.30 ERA, 9th best in MLB.
Mets starting pitchers have a 3.60 ERA since the All-Star Game, the best in the National League and fifth best in MLB

Down on the Farm 🌾

OF Drew Gilbert (No. 3 prospect, Triple-A): 2-for-4
RHP Nolan McLean (No. 9 prospect, Double-A): 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
OF/1B Ryan Clifford (No. 4 prospect, Double-A): 2-for-4, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, BB

BOX SCORES

Today’s Game 🗓

Match-up: Mets (80-66) vs. Phillies (88-58)

Where: Citizens Bank Park - Philadelphia, PA

Starters: LHP José Quintana (8-9, 4.09 ERA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (12-7, 3.41 ERA)

When: 6:40 PM EDT

Where to Watch: WPIX

Time for the bats to come alive in Philly! ✍️

The Mets somehow pulled off a stunning win in their series finale against the Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon to cap an ugly but none the less necessary series win in Toronto. After being no-hit for eight innings, Francisco Lindor opened the floodgates with a home run that tied the game to lead off the ninth and then the offense exploded for five more runs to finish off the Jays.

Having said that, their six-run ninth inning was the same amount of runs they scored in total over their previous three games. Francisco Álvarez finished off the inning with a massive three-run blast, which was awesome but also his first home run since he walked off the Orioles on August 19.

The offense breaking out was an encouraging sign after a very sluggish week or so of games, and on paper September has been kind to the Mets so far. They are 8-2 and are holding the third Wild Card spot while being just a game and a half behind the Diamondbacks for the second wild card. However, that record is a bit misleading since the Mets have faced the White Sox, Red Sox, Reds, and Blue Jays. The Mets collectively are hitting just .201/.298/.334 with an OPS of .632 and a wRC+ of 84 during that span.

The entire offense has all gone cold at the same time.

For the month of September the numbers aren’t individually great, either:

Francisco Lindor: .256/.341/.538, 3 HR, 6 RBI
Brandon Nimmo: .152/.237/.182, 0 HR, 3 RBI
Mark Vientos: .242/.324/.515, 3 HR, 5 RBI
Pete Alonso: .156/.300.281, 1 HR, 4 RBI
J.D. Martinez: .143/.250/.190, 0 HR, 4 RBI
Jesse Winker: 087/.250/.217, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Starling Marte: .174/.231/.217, 0 HR, 3 RBI
Francisco Alvarez: .238/.385/.381, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Harrison Bader: 150/.143/.300. 1 HR, 2 RBI
Jose Iglesias: .310/.375/.379, 0 HR, 1 RBI

The good news for the Mets?

Well, they’re missing Zack Wheeler this weekend in Philly, for starters. That’s a win all by itself. Also, the Phillies pitching hasn’t been great lately - their 4.26 team ERA since the All-Star Game is 18th best in baseball with their starters producing the 9th worst ERA at 4.49 during the same span.

So, if that trend continues, the Mets offense should align well with how mediocre the Phillies pitching has been as of late.

Also - as we saw on Wednesday, the Mets haven’t been terrible with runners in scoring position, hitting .250/.364/.483 in such situations since September 1. It’s not great and will probably need to be better over the final two weeks of the year, but that along with their strong pitching has kept their seat at the table during the home stretch of the regular season.

Even so, those individual and overall numbers for the club just aren’t going to cut it as the schedule gets tougher, beginning tonight in Philadelphia. They had a margin for error against the second division teams, but aside from the Nationals, they’re playing only playoff teams or contenders the rest of the way.

They’re going to need Alonso to help lead the way - perhaps he can go on a 2015 Lucas Duda-like streak where he hits nothing but home runs for a week. They’ll also need more consistency from Martínez, Nimmo to wake up from his summer slumber and Álvarez to continue the upward trajectory he is on.

The Mets have come this far. They just need to find a way to push themselves over the top over the final two weeks of the season.

Around the League 🚩

The Twins reportedly cut prospect Derek Bender from the team after he tried to help the opposition in an elimination game
Texas SS Corey Seager will undergo sports hernia surgery, which will end his season
The Guardians placed Alex Cobb on the IL with a blister on his middle finger
Juan Soto hit a game-winning single in the tenth to earn his first walk-off hit for the Yankees