Mets showing interest in four starting pitchers
The Mets continue to look for opportunities to upgrade their starting rotation, their biggest area of focus this winter
What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎
The Mets made their one-year deal with OF Harrison Bader official on Friday (Release)
The Mets claimed Diego Castillo off waivers from the Padres
Former Met Luis Guillorme reportedly signed a one-year deal with the Braves
Rumor Mill 💨
The Mets remain in contact with the agents for Japanese LHP Shota Imanaga (New York Post)
The Mets are expressing interest in signing LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (New York Post)
The Mets have injected themselves in trade conversations with the White Sox for RHP Dylan Cease, but are not viewed as favorites (New York Post)
The Mets are also expressing interest in LHP Sean Manaea (New York Post)
Pitching, pitching, pitching, and pitching! ✍️
The off-season conversation about the Mets always seems to circle back to starting pitching, and for good reason.
They don’t have a lot of it.
Sure, José Quintana and Kodai Senga are very good pitchers. But there’s a whole lot of if’s, maybe’s, and hopefuls behind them with not a lot of alternatives to turn to in the event of injury and underperformance.
And with the Mets showing a general unwillingness to sign players to multi-year deals, that leaves them in the part of the free agent pool of starting pitchers looking to rebound, looking to re-establish themselves in free agency a year from now, and not a lot of certainty tied to their own future performances.
Honestly, I think this is a sound strategy, but it would be nice if the Mets were in this part of the pool strictly for the back of their rotation. It would also be nice if the Mets could develop their own starting pitching so they don’t have to rely so much on an always murky and unpredictable free agent marketplace.
After all, when you look over the course of history, how many long-term free agent contracts for starting pitchers have worked out end-to-end?
Max Scherzer’s deal with the Nationals was a good one, Clayton Kershaw’s long-term relationship with the Dodgers has been a good one when he’s been able to stay healthy, but most others do not.
This is why the Mets are probably wise to stay away from Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Snell specifically is unquestionably a very good pitcher, but an inefficient one on the wrong side of 30 coming off a Cy Young season. From a value perspective, his best days are likely behind him even if he has a couple of more good years left in the tank. But he’s in the ace money market and whoever signs him can bet they’ll have an albatross on their hands in short order.
As for Montgomery, I like him a lot and I think he would be an excellent fit for the Mets rotation over the next few years. But his direct comp might be Carlos Rodón, who got $150 million from the Yankees last winter. If Montgomery is a 2-3 starter at best in the near-term and who knows what at the end of such a comparable contract, should the Mets in their current state be doling out $150 million for a mid-rotation starter?
Probably not, if you ask me.
So, that brings us to the arms the New York Post says the Mets have expressed some interest in recently, all of which come with some degree of uncertainty and risk.
Let’s take a look, shall we?
Hyun-Jin Ryu
When Ryu has been healthy, he has been one of the best pitchers in the league over the course of his career. He has two top-10 Cy Young Award finishes, a lifetime 3.27 ERA, great command, and keeps the ball in the yard.
The key though is, when he’s been healthy.
He has appeared in 25 or more games just five times in his career and has made just 17 starts in the last two seasons alone. He had shoulder surgery after the 2015 season, elbow surgery in 2016, and Tommy John Surgery in 2022. So, there’s a lot of mileage on that arm, which will turn 37 before Opening Day.
But what makes Ryu good?
Historically, Ryu has leaned on his cutter and change-up for success, although his change wasn’t particularly effective in a small sample in 2023. He throws strikes and keeps the ball in the yard, things the Mets struggled with in large measure in 2023.
He isn’t a frontline starter anymore, and its questionable how many innings he can give them in 2024 considering he has tallied a total of 79 over the last two years with Tommy John Surgery sandwiched in-between.
Shota Imanaga
Imanaga, 30, is the second-best pitcher from Japan to be posted this winter, and time is running out for the left-hander to make a decision as his time, per MLB rules, will expire on Thursday.
Imanaga has had a splendid career in Japan, posting a 2.96 lifetime ERA in 1129.2 IP with 1183 strikeouts, 301 walks and 118 home runs allowed. He has nearly a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio over the course of his career, suggesting he has excellent command.
But while he would appear to have kept the ball in the yard over the course of his career, there is some general concern about his flyball rate which has kept the Yankees from reportedly showing serious interest in Imanaga. 18 of those 118 home runs he’s allowed came in 2023 with the Yokohama BayStars in 159 innings.
Even so, a ballpark such as Citi Field plus the improvements the Mets have made in the outfield over the course of this winter might provide a soft landing spot for Imanaga. And, he did strikeout 188 batters against only 24 walks in those 159 innings in 2023.
Imanaga probably projects as a mid-rotation starter, and is reportedly expected to sign a deal in the $100 million range, plus the posting fee which would be derived from the total value of the contract and due to the Yokohama BayStars in the NPB.
Dylan Cease
Personally, I expect Cease to be the least likely option for the Mets despite their reported interest in potentially trading for him.
The 27-year-old right-hander is still two years away from free agency, coming off a very perplexing season in which he posted a mediocre 4.58 ERA and a 97 ERA+. That can be largely attributed to a four walk per nine inning mark, a league high 14 wild pitches, and a mildly diminished strikeout rate.
But, Cease still struck out 214 batters in only 177 innings in 2023 and posted a 3.72 FIP, suggesting he probably should’ve seen better results than he ultimately produced. He has made 30 starts or more in each of the last three seasons but also made 12 starts in the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season.
Is he the guy who pitched to a 2.20 ERA in 2022 which netted him a second place finish in the AL Cy Young race? Well, the walks would suggest not, but he is probably somewhere in between what he did in 2022 and 2023 which makes him the best of these three options. That plus his age, durability history and swing-and-miss stuff make him a very attractive trade piece in both the short and long-term.
However, as we’ve talked about endlessly, the Mets have shown a general unwillingness to deal from their prospect crop at this time. And Cease, given his age, controllability, and tantalizing upside will cost them an arm and a leg in prospect currency.
That’s fine, but the Mets haven’t exactly proved they have an appetite for dealing away prospects.
Lets see if they blink here.
Sean Manaea
Manaea, who will turn 32 in February 1, is coming off two very disappointing seasons with the Padres and Giants after a very good start to his career with the A’s.
Manaea was in and out of the rotation for the Giants last year although he finished his season with four starts in the San Francisco rotation and pitching to a 2.25 ERA in those games.
When picking apart his numbers, Manaea actually pitched very well in multiple roles for the Giants after May 17, posting a 3.44 ERA in 29 games, four of which were those starts at the end of the season. He allowed 35 earned runs, 26 walks and fanned 97 batters in 91 innings, suggesting he still has some swing-and-miss stuff left in the tank.
Manaea incorporated a sweeper into his repertoire last season and it was an effective pitch for him as he looked for answers to his diminished slider. His change-up also proved to be an effective secondary pitch as well.
His strikeout rate would suggest he has something the Mets or any club can work with and potentially extract something from, but Manaea wouldn’t be anymore than a back-end starter right now with a risk that underperformance could displace him from any starting rotation, given his most recent track record.
Hot Stove 🔥
The Mariners traded Robbie Ray to the Giants for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani
The Mariners also traded José Caballero to the Rays for Luke Raley
The Red Sox maybe looking to trade Kelley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida (Athletic, Boston Globe)
Wander Franco - who was arrested in the Dominican Republic last week - has been released on a $34,000 bond (AP)
Michael Brantley announced his retirement after a 15 year big league career (MLB Network)
Good luck Luis you were a magician with your glove. Still need a Banger DH , two lights out relievers and of course staters. Stearns 1year contract for players is flawed - can’t just flip a switch in 2025 and get all the quality players you need. Remember not all players want to come to NY. Is Stearns scared about long term contracts because of Yelich ? Is Clevinger worth signing ?