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Drew Van Buskirk's avatar

Here comes the stat nerd: I went to see where the Mets' pitching staffs have ranked league-wide since Hefner's tenure began in 2020, and it was mostly 'meh'. ERA - 4.03 (11th); FIP - 4.02 (11th); WHIP - 1.28 (16th); total fWAR - 85.7 (11th). Not bad, but pretty solidly that of a perpetual wild card contender.

And the deeper I dug, the more sense the firing makes when thinking about Stearns's vocal commitment to run prevention — their team walk numbers have generally been pretty bad recently. Save for two solid seasons fresh off the COVID year, Mets staffs have ranked in the mid-20s in walks allowed, BB/9, and WHIP. They've issued the eighth-most walks in baseball since 2020, and they sit firmly middle of the road in WHIP with a collective 1.28 mark over those five seasons.

If the focus this winter is indeed run prevention, then seeking to stabilize the lingering free pass situation makes sense.

Additionally, Mets starters from 2020-2025 have thrown 305 quality starts (12th), but they've thrown just five complete games and have only three shutouts in those five years. Homers haven't been an issue for a while; Mets arms have allowed just 944 (fourth-fewest) since 2020. Instead, the problem lies in base hits allowed with runners on base: Mets pitchers have allowed the 27th-most hits in MLB with the bases empty, but the 19th-most with runners on. When more than half your team's walks (54.5%) are issued with the bases empty, and you give up more hits with runners on base than not, safe to say you're not doing yourself any favors.

TL;DR - I'm not too shocked by Hefner's dismissal. After several years of mostly the same returns, it was time for a shake-up across the board.

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Matthew Davis's avatar

Hugh Quattlebaum still available?

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