Mets escape with 1-0 win despite awful batted ball luck
New York gets back on track with a 1-0 victory in Miami. Plus, the horrendous luck Mets hitters have faced in the last two games.
What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets picked up their first victory of the second half on Saturday afternoon, defeating the Marlins by a 1-0 score (box)
RHP Luis Severino pitched very well for the club, going six innings while allowing no runs on two hits, three walks and seven strikeouts
Severino averaged 96.9 miles per hour on his four seam fastball on Saturday, his highest average velocity in a game this season
C Francisco Álvarez drove home the only run of the game on an RBI fielder’s choice
2B José Iglesias went 2-for-4 at the plate and is now hitting .384 with a 1.005 OPS this season
RHPs José Buttó, Dedniel Núñez and Edwin Díaz combined to pitch three shutout innings in relief, allowing just three base runners with six strikeouts
DH J.D. Martínez went 1-for-4 at the plate and is now hitting .164/.309/.255 with one home run, two doubles, five RBI, 25 strikeouts and a .564 OPS over his last 16 games
Over their last three games, the Mets offense is 2-for-27 (.074) with runners in scoring position
Playoff Race 🏁
The Mets are a half-game back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. However, they are tied with the Diamondbacks for the third Wild Card berth after Arizona won their second straight on Saturday. New York is 0.5 games ahead of the Pirates, and 1.5 game ahead of the Padres with 65 games to play.
Per FanGraphs, the Mets now have a 44% chance of making the postseason in 2024 after their win in Miami yesterday.
New York has the 10th easiest schedule in MLB the rest of the way.
Tiebreakers:
vs. ATL: 3-3
vs. ARI: 2-2
vs. STL: 3-2
vs. SD: 3-0
vs. CIN: 2-1
vs. SF: 2-4 (finished)
vs. PIT: 5-2 (finished)
vs. CHC: 4-3 (finished)
Injury Updates 🏥
OF Starling Marte (right knee bone bruise) told reporters on Saturday that he feels “close” to being able to return to play
Down on the Farm 🌾
RHP Kodai Senga (Rehab assignment, Triple-A): 3 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, K
SS Luisangel Acuña (No. 5 prospect, Triple-A): 3-for-5, 2B, 2 runs scored
RHP/DH Nolan McLean (No. 19 prospect, Double-A): 4 IP, H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (loss)
1B Yohairo Cuevas (Single-A): 2-for-5, 3B, 4 RBI, run scored
BOX SCORES
Single-A STL | High-A BRK | Double-A BNG | Triple-A SYR
Today’s Game 🗓
Match-up: Mets (50-47) at Marlins (34-64)
Where: loanDepot Park — Miami, FL
Starters: RHP Christian Scott (0-2, 4.36 ERA) vs. LHP Trevor Rogers (1-9, 4.72 ERA)
When: 1:40 PM EDT
Where to Watch: WPIX
The New York Mets vs. batted ball luck… ✍️
The Mets escaped the typical Marlins scare that this fan base has come so accustomed to with a thin 1-0 win on Saturday afternoon, but it should have never been that close.
Despite the win, Mets batter (and fans) had plenty to be frustrated about yesterday after hitting into some incredibly bad luck for the second straight game. It seemed like nearly any time the club was threatening with runners on base, they’d hit a screaming line drive or a high-fly ball that always just happened to find a glove.
The 4th inning was a picture perfect example of that on Saturday. With the bases loaded and one out in a scoreless game, Francisco Álvarez hit a ground ball up the middle that seemed destined for center field, which would have given the club a 2-0 lead and kept the line moving. Instead, though, Marlins shortstop Xavier Edwards made a remarkable sprawling stop and was able to flip the ball behind his back to get the out. The next batter Jeff McNeil hit a 101.1 mile per hour screamer that went right into the first baseman’s glove to retire the side and end the rally.
Just one inning later, J.D. Martínez hit a 97.2 mile per hour line drive that also found the glove of an infielder and turned into an inning-ending double play, killing yet another rally.
These were just a few examples of a day full of them, as the Mets offense went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position in large part due to this atrocious batted ball luck.
Just how bad of luck, you ask?
Well, in Saturday’s win in Miami the Mets had 11 balls with exit velocities of 95 miles per hour or higher – seven of them were outs. And of those seven outs, five of them were on balls hit over 100 miles per hour.
Oddly enough, Saturday’s horrible luck was a continuation for a Mets offense that was bitten by it even worse the night before, which helped cost them a win.
In Friday night’s loss, New York’s offense hit 16 balls with exit velocities of 95 miles per hour or higher – an insane 10 of them were outs. And of those 10, seven of them were on balls hit over 100 miles per hour.
So, just to recap, in the last two games the Mets have hit 27 balls with exit velocities over 95 miles per hour, and have made 17 outs. With luck like that, it’s no coincidence that their offense is 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position in that time.
It’s things like this that make baseball endlessly fascinating and frustrating. The season is so long that you’re going to see pretty much every possible outcome, no matter how random or seemingly unlucky, at some point during the course of that 162-game schedule.
There will come a time where the hottest hitters on the planet can’t buy a hit, and conversely times where fringe players on your roster will somehow come through with some of the biggest hits of your season. There will be nights where all the bloops and infield dribblers all turn into hits, while other nights will have you cursing at your TV after watching eight line drive outs cost your team a win.
If it tells you anything, it’s that the Mets will probably have a huge breakout game on offense soon. Because as eminently frustrating as it is, baseball always seems to find a way of correcting itself.
Around the League 🚩
The Cardinals and Braves split a double header on Saturday, keeping St. Louis a half-game ahead of the Mets for the second Wild Card spot
The Pirates knocked off the Phillies by a 4-1 score for their sixth consecutive win
Rays OF Randy Arozarena clubbed two home runs and drove in three runs in Tampa Bay’s blowout victory over the Yankees
Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw could make his season debut with the team as soon as this week
The White Sox lost to the Royals 4-1 on Saturday for their sixth straight loss – they now have a 27-73 record with a -188 run differential this season
I listened to the last two innings while driving across central North Dakota for work. Was so glad Diaz locked it down.